Optimism Growing for Real Estate Markets and Economy-Market Turning Around

I saw this great article and I think we should all be ready for 2009 to be a return to normalcy!

Can You Feel it? Optimism Growing as New Year Approaches

Posted By Paige On December 9, 2008 @ 5:00 pm In Real Estate | Comments Disabled

Commentary by James Crumbaugh III

RISMEDIA, Dec. 10, 2008-I'm always accused of being overly optimistic about the real estate market. You have to understand that after 35 + years in the business, everything is just a cycle to me and when we go through a cycle like we've been going through, then my thoughts become "How long will the cycle last?"

You may have read my article recently titled [1] "The Perfect Storm," where I discussed the reasons that I thought this real estate market was poised to turn around. We are seeing the market improve almost on a daily basis recently. Is it the facts that I stated in my article that is causing the turn around? Absolutely that's part of the turnaround.

However, there is another dynamic at work here. I'll call it the Obama Effect. I'm a Republican and I voted for John McCain, but I'm sensing an optimism starting to build in this country. I will give President Elect Obama credit where credit is due, and I will be the first to admit that at this point he is being very proactive at turning around the financial crisis in this country.

As the optimism improves, and I think it will, from here to the inauguration, and for the honeymoon period following the inauguration, we will continue to see an improvement in the optimism in this country.

With the automotive bailout, real estate is bound to improve in the Michigan area and probably the entire rust belt, therefore improving Florida real estate. The retirees will be able to sell their homes in Michigan and retire to Florida or other states popular among retirees.

The public works project will put hundreds of thousands of workers back to work and at good wages. I still believe we have a pent up demand for the last three years of buyers wanting to buy. Once these buyers are employed again and flush with income, the market will start to improve.

Then you have very low fuel prices that allow the consumer more discretionary income to spend.

Then we have the potential for 4 ½ % mortgage rates.

When you start to take a hard look at where we are poised as an industry, no matter how pessimistic you are, you have got to believe we are in for a return of a good real estate market if not an excellent real estate market.

The stars are lining up:

- An improved automotive market
- Low fuel prices
- Workers going back to work
- Good wages
- Low real estate prices
- Low mortgage rates

I'm becoming more optimistic just writing this article. I don't believe you can argue the facts as I just them pointed out. Things are looking up for the real estate industry.

If you-as a Broker or a Realtor-have made it this far during this market, then you're in for good times to come because the market is turning around and it will be good again soon.

James A. Crumbaugh III is CEO of Allison James Estates & Homes.