Massachusetts Mortgage Market News for the week ending May 2, 2008

Fed on Hold Now?

Wednesday's Fed meeting may have marked an end to the rate cutting cycle. As widely anticipated, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by one quarter point. Since September, they have reduced the rate from 5.25% to 2.00%, which was the most rapid decline in decades. Two out of the ten voting Fed members dissented in favor of no change in rates. Investors now believe that the Fed is less worried about slower economic growth and will focus more on fighting inflation. This was good news for mortgage markets, and mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

Overall, the Fed's statement contained few changes. Notably, the Fed appears to have transitioned to a "neutral" phase. In the statement, Fed officials are less concerned about the downside risks to the economy. They still expect inflation to moderate over time, although they note that uncertainty about future inflation levels remains high. With the added stimulus from government rebate checks about to kick in, investors generally believe that the Fed will wait and see how the economy performs before taking any additional action, and expectations for a future Fed rate cut have fallen to very low levels.

Friday's stronger than expected Employment report supported the case for a pause by the Fed. In April, the economy lost -20K jobs, which was less than the consensus for a loss of -75K jobs. Once again, the greatest weakness was seen in the manufacturing and construction sectors, while the service sector remained strong. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth and an inflation indicator, showed an annual increase in wages of 3.4%.

[See the attached file]

Week Ahead

After a flood of big news this week, next week's Economic Calendar will be very light. The ISM Services index will come out on Monday. Productivity will be released on Wednesday. Over the long term, Productivity gains are a major factor in improvements to our standard of living. The Pending Home Sales index, a leading indicator of future housing market activity, will also come out on Wednesday. Friday's Trade Balance data will close out the week. Fed speakers may supplement the economic news next week as well.