Did Home Sales Really Rise 4.8% in September?

According to the Commerce Department sales are up! Woo-Hoo! I know what you're thinking because I'm thinking the same thing. Let's put this into perspective.

First of all this is a month to month stat. If only 100,000 homes were sold in October and November reported 200,000 homes sold, new home sales would be up 100%. The number isn't good but that percentage is great! There is a larger problem with this number, they're not actual numbers, just an estimate. Normally the trend is to "revise" after more data is in. A good example is prior to the most recent rate cut, the employment report showed a loss in new jobs. After more data was gathered the loss was revised to a gain. The job loss (estimate that was revised to a gain) was the catalyst for the rate cut that in turn gave the green light for equities to run. Funny how things work.

Take a look:

"Sales increased 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 from a revised 735,000 in August, an 11-year low. Previously, Aug. sales had been reported at a 795,000 pace."

So Aug numbers were originally 795,000 sales, right?

It was revised DOWN to 735,000.

Sept numbers were reported at 770,000, UP from August by a whole 4.8%? But wasn't the August number originally 795,000? Isn't that 25,000 less than was reported last month? But sales are up?

It's always good to understand that what you see and what you get aren't always the same thing. Look at the bright side, homes are still selling, just fewer than intially reported. I may revise my views next month.