It is simple math. OK everybody is asking the question of how long will it take to come back to the highs of 2004. Now this depends on what area you are in and how far back home prices have fallen.
In Michigan the newer home prices have gone back to about 1994 prices. In some cities it is 1980's or 1970's prices. So here is my math on the 1994 priced home. If your house is worth what is was in 1994 it took a total of ten years before it reached 2004. 2004 -1994 = 10 years right...
So in just 10 short years your Metro Detroit house rose in value to 2004 prices and that was a booming economy.
So how long do you think it will take for the Metro Detroit's economyto get rolling. Let's be optimistic and say in 2 years.
So here is my math.
2 years for economy to turn
10 years for prices to get back to top price.
So I say it will be 12 years at the minimum to get back to the high home prices. That is if the economy is humming like it was in the late 1990's and early 2000. If not then add another 4 years on at least.
So my educated guess is that it will be at least 12 years before home prices come back to the past highs of 2004 (AT THE ABSOLUTE MINIMUM!!!!). I will be retired by the time home prices come back. I honestly think it will a few more years than that but..... I'm staying positive.
So if you are waiting for it to come back to sell you will be waiting a long time. If you have the time wait. If not make your move when it best fits your situation because everything hinges on Detroit area economy.
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2009 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
Good guess. That's about what I was thinking.
Let me know when you do retire... I am happy to help your clients. Lets hope the market recovers before you hope it will. Good luck out there.
Ken you are a smart man!
You may be right on. Our bubble burst in late 2000 and our prices have not come back to that level yet. So we are at the 9 year mark, and I doubt seriously we will make it up in 3 years. Who knows. A house I sold for $705k in '2000 is going on the market this month for $599k....and I think it is still too high.
Scarry. I hope it is sooner. Thanks for the post.
Very good hypothesis!
Not so good news for owners and sellers who bought during the boom time, on a more positive side, it seems there will be a few more years of affordable house prices.