Lets Talk Supply

A Blog I read quite often is called The Calculated Risk Blog, in this story: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/existing-homes-double-digit-months-of.html the story I've linked to talks about expected supply of double digits in the months to come regarding re-sale homes. CRB expects supply of existing homes to get into double digits and stay there for a while. Usually when we talk supply 8 months or less is considered a "healthy" market. Based on this blog I thought I'd see how Missoula stacks up.

Missoula active listed inventory: 941

Sales to date: 522

Using the CRB math for supply: 941/522 * 7 = 12.62 months so a slightly over-stocked market. That's the total market though, lets pull apart new construction from re-sale, and look at them side-by-side.

Active listed (new - resale): 140 - 801

Sales to date (new - resale): 50 - 472

So then the supply for new construction at this point is a whopping 19.6 months of supply, a pretty top-heavy market with way too much for sale. Looking at re-sale we have a better number of 11.88 months, still too much supply but a little better when you pull out new construction. That shows that the current amount of listings does not match up with the sales so far this year to be a healthy market. Despite boosted activity from the tax credits we still see too much supply, especially in new construction. Missoula's market is still dealing with issues of over-supply and finding its way through. Opportunities are great, with high supply and good rates. Qualified buyers have awesome choices and can expect to negotiate good deals, however move-up buyers that need to sell a home right now might find things to take a little longer to get into that next home as they'll be battling with the current amount of over-supply.