Mortgage Rates Rise on Improving Economic Data

Saturday April 24, 2010
The Inside Edge

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Mortgage Rates Rise on Improving Economic Data

While inflation remained low, stronger than expected economic data released this week was negative for mortgage markets. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.

The big news in this week's economic data came from the housing sector. March Existing Home Sales rose 7% from February, and existing home sales were 16% higher than one year ago. Inventories of unsold existing homes fell to an 8-month supply, from 8.5-months in February. March New Home Sales were even better, jumping 27% from February to the highest monthly rate since last July. This marked the largest single-month increase in new home sales since 1963. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) credited the homebuyer tax credit for the strong March housing data. Buyers must sign a contract by April 30 to take advantage of the tax credit, so the April data should benefit as well.

Friday morning, CNBC reported that support is growing among Fed officials to begin sales of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from the Fed's portfolio. In a program which ended March 31, the Fed purchased $1.25 trillion of MBS to help lower mortgage rates and boost the economy. According to CNBC, "at least" six members of the Fed's policymaking committee support near-term MBS sales if the economy continues to improve. The selling could begin as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year. Fed Chief Bernanke still views the likely time frame to begin MBS sales as next year, but his recent comments have indicated a willingness to keep more options open. With the next Fed meeting taking place on Wednesday, the 2:15 et release of its statement will take on added significance. If the Fed actually conveys an intention to begin to sell MBS soon, mortgage rates would be likely to rise on the news.

Also Notable:

• The Producer Price Index (PPI) core inflation rate rose at a low 0.8% annual pace
• A popular measure of business investment rose at the fastest rate in 9 months
• First-time buyers accounted for 44% of existing home sales in March
• The Treasury will auction $118 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week

Average 30 yr fixed rate: Last week: -0.10% This week: +0.05%

Stocks (weekly): Dow: 11,150 +150 NASDAQ: 2,525 +50

Week Ahead

The big story next week will be Wednesday's Fed meeting. No change in rates is expected, but investors will be closely watching for hints about future Fed moves to tighten policy or to sell assets. Friday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter will be the most significant economic data. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. The Chicago PMI Manufacturing index will also come out on Friday. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.