Did Someone Announce a Clearance Sale and Not Tell Me?

Believe it or not, there are actually quite a few buyers out in today's real estate marketplace. Unfortunately, most seem to be under the impression that there's a "Clearance Sale" underway based on the numbers they throw around regarding home values.

Granted, our market, like most others, is down from the peak, which in Monmouth County NJ occurred in 2007 for single-family home values (median 2007 $450,000) but thru the end of 2008 we were only down 5.6%. True, the number of homes sold declined signficantly (about 21% from '07 to '08) which would indicate fewer buyers were househunting. This should and did have an impact on prices... the magic question for most buyers and sellers alike is "How much?"

What's most interesting to me is that despite the lower demand, the overall available inventory is about the same if you compare 2007 & 2008 (actually 2008 had slightly lower numbers). You'd expect the opposite: that inventory would shoot up higher if the sales were down. What's happened is many homeowners who may have been tried to sell when the market was hot are now less interested because of the downward pressure on prices and the overall increased time on market for most homes sold. This is a good thing. Better to not have so many sellers who are merely "testing the market". Better to have motivated sellers in the marketplace who really want to sell.

Next question buyers ask is "How much do you really want to sell?" In other words, how much pain are you willing to endure? I would say that many home sellers in our market are fairly reasonable and are willing to negotiate but they're thrown by offers that are sometimes 20-30% off and firm. While I can understand an investor mentality - someone who is purely looking at the transaction as a financial transaction in which either the numbers work or they don't - most of these buyers are not buying to flip, or develop a revenue stream by renting it out... they're looking to live in it.

To me, there's a big difference between wholesale buyers and regular homebuyers. Most home sellers do not need or want to engage wholesale buyers and these buyers play the numbers.... just keep making low offers and eventually someone will bite. The problem with regular buyers taking this approach is they have one, maybe two, maybe three houses that might work for them. And they sometimes get indignant when their offer of 25% off asking price is not accepted immediately.

Fear is playing a large role in all of this, of course, whether it's of "timing the market" incorrectly or simply a general dread due to the uncertainty of the job market and economy overall. While this is understandable, real estate professionals, myself included, have a responsibility to our clients and to our communities to help educate the public about the reality of the situation.

So here goes:

"Reality" in my market as I see it? It's a great time to buy. Why?

• Because most home prices have come down significantly from the inflated prices of a year or two ago.
• Because many home sellers are still negotiable if it's a reasonable discussion.
• Because interest rates are great and the savings realized from a decrease in your mortgage interest is probably going to equal a much greater dollar amount than any price reduction you are working so hard to negotiate.
• Because there are other ways to negotiate when buying that will still save you money but not be as difficult to get accepted as a flat out price drop (e.g. seller concessions, mortgage buydowns, etc.)
• Because there are programs out there such as the first home buyer $8000 tax credit which save you even more! (And by the way, "first home buyer" means you haven't owned a home during the last three years... attention anyone who may have owned a home previously and moved into a rental.)
• And lastly, because your reality has changed in some way to make this a time to move: marriage?divorce? new baby? new job? time to downsize?

Is it the best time to buy? I can only answer that with another question: For whom? Only you can answer that question. The market conditions are such that I can safely say that if you are in a position to buy (i.e. pre-approved for a mortgage, have your home sold or nothing to sell) and you are wanting to move, there is no reason to not take action. No one will ever be able to say it was the perfect time to buy until after the opportunity has already passed.

And besides, if the home you really want has already been sold to someone else when you've been told by someone on TV that it's the "perfect time" you'll be kicking yourself because the advantages present now may not exist, and the house you really loved got away.