Real Estate Outlook: Mortgage Rate Dip Impacts Housing

You may have seen the headlines last week about the Federal Reserve continuing its policy of keeping interest rates low to stimulate the economy. But you might have missed a major byproduct of that move that's certain to have a direct impact on home real estate: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates slipped below the five percent mark for the first time in nearly half a year, dipping to 4.9 percent.

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Fifteen year fixed rates are just 4.4 percent.

Now, there's nothing more stimulating for home buyers than mortgage money at rates that are about as low as they go. And sure enough, applications for new mortgages jumped by nearly 6 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Applications to buy homes using FHA financing soared to the highest share in the history of the Mortgage Bankers' index - which goes back to 1990.

Meanwhile, existing home sale closings took a breather from the rapid increases of the past several months, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales in August declined by 2.7 percent, but remained 3.4 percent higher than they were in August of 2008, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors.

He attributed the slightly lower rate of closed sales in part to clogs in the system -- more contracts being written, but longer wait times to go to closing, leading to a higher rate of fallouts.

In other key developments:

The index of leading economic indicators, which is produced by the Conference Board and forecasts economic activity three to six months down the road, was up again last month -- by six tenths of a percent.

That was the fifth straight month of higher readings for the index, and would have been higher had unemployment not held it back, according to analysts.

Home prices continued their slow gains, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Its home price index, which is based on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac transactions, found prices up by three tenths of a point nationwide in the latest survey month.

That coincides with most private price indexes, which have found that we're past bottom and headed back up in most parts of the country.

Finally, the private mortgage insurance industry, which virtually eliminated low-downpayment financing opportunities in many markets during the past year by declaring them "declining" or "distressed," has begun reversing course.

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Company last week removed 63 of its 68 previous designations of "declining markets." That should open up non-FHA cash-out refinancings and low-downpayment home purchase mortgages to thousands of people who'd been squeezed out under the old rules.


Written by Kenneth R. Harney
September 29, 2009

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