What's Happening with Mortgage Rates? This weeks Economic Calendar

Last week had its share of fairly large up and downs, but ultimately we ended up with a pretty decent gain for the week with Fannies trading up 19/32nds by the close on Friday... That translates to a noticeable improvement in Mortgage rates last week (but some bumps and bruises along the way) Most of the improvement in Mortgages was due to the sell off in the stock market.

Well this week has its share of challenges. Here is this weeks calendar:

• MondayNovember 2: (can you believe it is November already??) October Institute of Supply Mgt was expected at 53.0. Well we lost about 7/32nds today. which is not a good way to start the week!
• Tuesday November 3: DON'T FORGET TO VOTE!
• Tuesday: September Factory Orders expected up 1%. Not likely to do much more than take up space on this page.
• Tuesday: First day of the Fed Meeting.
• WednesdayNovember 4: October Institute of Supply Mgt Supply index expected 51.8. If this comes in near expectations it is not likely to move rates. If it pops higher than 52, we most likely will see rates bump up a bit.
• Wednesday: Fed meeting over at 2:15. No one expects the Fed to change rates... The analysts will certainly read every word of the post meeting statement for hints at what is coming. This is most likely a non event unless we are surprised by an exceptionally weak or strong view of the economy. Facts are the economy is slowly improving. The question is: "how fast?" and will the Fed move sooner than anticipated.
• ThursdayNov 5: Initial Jobless claims expected down 6,000. Zzzzzz look at Friday. This is just a shadow in comparison to Friday's number.
• Thursday: Third Quarter Productivity expected +5.5% and Unit Labor costs -4.5%. Productivity up and costs down... No fear of inflation in this report! But unfortunately not enough to move interest rates down.
• Friday November 6. October Non farm Payroll expected -175,000 and Jobless rate 9.9% and an average 33.1 hour work week. The Jobless rate is up, but the non farm number has been improving based on the beginning of the year. It is not likely we will see a bump up in rates with out a 9.7% jobless rate and 150k job loss. As forecast this is not likely to do much more than be supportive of steady interest rates.
• Friday: September Wholesale Inventories expected -1%. Even with this being an old number it will be looked at to see if there is any demand in wholesalers rebuilding inventory. This is most likely going to swept under the rug since it comes out right after the employment report.

The biggie of the week is hands down Friday's employment report. Leading into Friday's report we are most likely going to see stock market fluctuations be the driving force in the credit markets this week. If we have improvement in stocks we will lose some ground in the credit markets.

That's this weeks movers and shakers, Have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

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