Market absorption rate is a good way to get a feel for how hot the real estate market is in your area. Absorption rate basically represents the time it would take to sell all the existing inventory of homes in a certain market at the rate they currently are selling, if no additional properties came on the market in the mean time. Richard Dolbeare recently created a great blog post that visually demonstrated absorption rate in his Hawaii market with a color-coded chart that really grabbed me as a way of showing very graphically what is goin on in a given market. Using his tip, I've created a graphic presentation of what is currently going on with the market in some of our Albuquerque horse-friendly areas, by analyzing the current absorption rates in Albuquerque's North Valley areas, Corrales, and Placitas. The figures are all based on data from the Southwest Multiple Listing Service, for single family, detached residential properties currently on the market, and closed withing the past 30 days, as of July 8, 2007. The color coding above shows much of a buyer's or seller's market an area is in, based on absorption rates. The cooler the color, the more of a sellers' market; the warmer the color, the more of a buyer's market exists.
So, here is the data for Corrales and Placitas, New Mexico, plus Albuquerque's several North Valley areas:You'll notice that the North Valley and Far North Valley area are within the green band, comfortably in the "Seller's Market" ranges, with absorption rates of 5.8 months and 6 months, respectively. The West River Valley is not too far off that standard, with an absorption rate of 7 months, puttin it into the lower part of the "balanced market" range. The Near North Valley is just out of that comfort zone, with an absorption rate of just over 10 months. Corrales, however, is in a much more difficult market, with a 17-month absorption rate, well into the "Buyers' Market" range, and Placitas is in fairly dire straits, with a current absorption rate of 32 months. At the current sales rate, it would take nearly three years to close all the Placitas listings currently on the market, even if no other new listings were offered for sale during that time period. This makes it especially important for sellers in Placitas to make sure their properties are well-priced, perfectly staged, and well-marketed! |
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Carl,
Check out the color for "Strong Sellers'"!
Christopher
Christopher, who's Carl? And why are you commenting to him on this post?
Laura this is a very nice chart of your market, good job on preparing this.
Laura,
That is a great scale that you got. Go Infantry Blue.
Brian,
That is Carl and I knew he would be commenting to this blog sooner or later!
Carl,
You know it is Tar Heel blue!
Sorry Airborne, Infantry Blue.
Carl, I'm sure it is UNC blue!!
great graph Laura, I love the idea! My poor market is all in the lava glowing RED section! Ouch, my feet are burning!
Commiserations, Janie! We're pretty lucky here that we still have some areas around Albuquerque that are in the "buyers' market blue" range, although not those pictured here!
Laura, impressive graph. If you are interested I also calculate absorption rate by price range as well. Check out Absorption Rate by Price Range.
Troy Trumm
Laura ..thanks for putting the effort into this post! Graphs are sometimes way way more powerful and memorable than line after line of copy!