Westchester County 3rd Quarter Sales Report, Market Talk and Trend

10-27-08 - 2008 THIRD QUARTER
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT
Westchester and Putnam Counties, New York
October 27, 2008

The third quarter residential closing activity in Westchester and Putnam Counties
continued the prevailing pattern of reduced sales volumes, moderately impacted prices
and slight gains in inventory that has characterized the local real estate market for the
past eighteen months. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam

Multiple Listing
Service, Inc. reported 2,102 closings in Westchester during the third quarter of the year,
23% less than last yearâ€^TMs level. The 277 closings in Putnam County were 16% fewer
than during last yearâ€^TMs third quarter.

The third quarter closings largely followed upon sales and marketing activity that took
place during the spring months, thus these latest data do not in any way reflect the
calamity in the financial markets that has occurred in recent weeks.

However, key
economic conditions affecting real estate during the spring months of 2008 were
trending to the negative. Mortgage interest rates climbed about one-half percentage
point during the period, from a January low of just 6.0% on average for a conventional
30-year loan, to about 6.5% by the end of June. Credit standards were becoming
tighter although qualified buyers had few problems obtaining mortgages.

At the same
time, however, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were visibly exhibiting the weaknesses in
their mortgage portfolios that would lead to drastic government intervention several months later.

Also troubling was a steady increase in Westchesterâ€^TMs unemployment rate from one-half

to one percentage point over 2007 levels. By the end of June the unadjusted
unemployment rate was 4.7% - lower than that of New York City or the State, but
nevertheless a sharp departure from rates as low as 3.4% over the past several years.
Also in this period, the volatility in the financial markets began to evidence itself in a
significant way, with indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding by
more than 2,000 points between January and June.

The Westchester â€" Putnam real estate market fared well considering the negative
forces. Sales volume has suffered all year long but so far prices and inventory have not
been severely impacted. On a year to date basis through the end of the third quarter,

2008 sales were down by 25% from last yearâ€^TMs. This was an improvement over the first

quarter when volume was down by 30%. Seasonally adjusted1, the third quarter sales
rate for all categories of housing was a weak 3% slower than the second quarter pace.
However, single family house sales outperformed the other housing categories with a
small 2% gain over the second quarter rate.

Notwithstanding the persistently low sales activity over the past year, Westchester and
Putnam Counties have not experienced a significant accumulation of inventory. At the
end of the third quarter, total residential units for sale in Westchester numbered 7,294,
just 4% more than at the same date in 2007. The 2008 level actually was lower than
that of 2006. As has been repeatedly observed in these reports,

Westchester appears
to have a larger than average population of homeowners who have the financial means
and the lifestyle flexibility to chose whether and when to place their properties for sale.

For the near term at least, it appears that many of them are electing to stay out of the
market until conditions improve.

The result of relatively stable inventory is that there has been less downward pressure
on prices here than elsewhere. The third quarter median2 sale price of a single family
house in Westchester was $710,000, a decrease of only $20,000 or 3% from last yearâ€^TMs
record-setting third quarter median of $730,000. The mean2 sale price was down by
5%, to $918,737, still a high number by any accounting. Properties selling for over one
million dollars in the third quarter accounted for 25.3% of all Westchester single family
house sales, just a fraction of a percent more than last year.

A particularly difficult factor to assess is the impact of foreclosures on the local sales

market. The County Clerkâ€^TMs office reports monthly levels of more than 200 foreclosure
filings in recent months whereas that number was in the range of 80 to 90 per month in
2005 and even 2006. Actual foreclosure judgments have also increased, from 20 or 30
monthly in 2005 to more than 100 in recent months. Clearly, a great many of the filings
were resolved by short sales, refinancing, or other work-arounds before they became
lender-owned properties. We must conclude from the overall stable inventory and
pricing data that there were not enough troubled properties languishing on the market
so as to bloat the inventory, nor were they being sold at fire-sale prices â€" at least not up
through the third quarter of 2008.

The hardest hit sector of the local real estate market has been two- to four-family
houses. The seasonally adjusted rate of sales in the third quarter was barely one third
of the rates achieved at the top of the market in 2005 and 2006, and median sale prices
have dropped by about 18% over the same period of time.
The best performing sector of the local market from a price aspect was the
condominium sector. The third quarter median sale price of $395,900 was barely
changed from 2007 and was higher than in 2005 and 2006. The mean sale price of
$449,235 was 3% above last yearâ€^TMs level. Sales volume, though, lagged last yearâ€^TMs by
26%.

A Look Ahead
If the local real estate market were to close out 2008 at the same rate as experienced in
the past three quarters, total sales volume would be around 7,000 units for the year for
the four housing categories tracked by this multiple listing service. That low count was
last posted in 1994 (although at the time, 1994 volume was record-setting and was
perceived as a powerful recovery from the 1990 recession - everything is relative!). But
to return to todayâ€^TMs reality, after the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac in September, the near collapse of both domestic and international credit markets,
the introduction of emergency measures such as the economic stimulus package and
the $750 billion “rescue plan”, the failure of several large investment houses and banks,
and the wild plunges of the stock market, all bets are off with respect to how the

Westchester-Putnam real estate market is going to fare by year end!