Today's topic: Exploring some nationwide statistics on Foreclosures and Delinquent Loans. Delinquencies are the "pipeline" to future foreclosures. I read a report this morning that is very informative and I think you will like it too.
You can find a PowerPoint graphically presenting all of the data by clicking
here. The presentation is provided by LPS Applied Analytics.
Foreclosure stats of interest nationwide:
* Seriously delinquent loans (>90 days delinquent) are down ~40% from high of ~3.0M in January 2010 now 1.7M loans. This is represented by the first chart on the right, above
* 3.9M loans are either seriously delinquent (>90 days delinquent) or in Foreclosure
* 2.2M of those are in Foreclosure, the highest number ever and 4.3% of all active loans
* Another 7.9% are delinquent by at least 30 days for a total of 12.2% of 51.5M active loans are Non-Current which includes everything Delinquent more than 30 days and in Foreclosure
* Oregon is 8.3% Non-Current vs. National average of 12.2%. CA is 10.5%
Average days delinquent of those in Foreclosure are now 631 days since delinquent. The average Foreclosure is now approaching 2 years to clear.
* Interesting that in the 12 months since Oct ’10 to now, the Delinquencies have improved, down 14.6%, while Foreclosures are up 9.4%. This probably relates to the vote-seeking Attorneys General battering the lenders and delaying the process. This was more prevalent in 2010, but just last week was reopened by the Mass. AG.
* Non-Judicial states (like OR and CA) have 4 times as many sales of Foreclosure inventory as Judicial Foreclosure states (like NY and FL) (I.E., 6.3% of inventory vs. 1.6% in the month of Oct)
* Some positive news to be gleaned: Total “Starts”, while still at ~250k for the month, 40% were “repeats” and “new” were less than 150k on the month. (See the chart above to the right.) Also, these Foreclosure Starts were 11.5% less than a year ago.
* But even the positive news is tempered by reality: Foreclosure starts noted above are still 3x the number of Foreclosure sales monthly.
* Overall, the report appears to be showing a reduction of the pipeline leading to foreclosures, a log-jam in the number of homes in foreclosure, more arriving in foreclosure than selling each month, and a lengthy, 2-year window of getting foreclosures sold. It feels like with the ratio of New Foreclosures to Sold at 3x, and delays in the process, that 2-year timeframe to get from Delinquent to Sold through the Foreclosure channel is going to have to get longer for a time. Once that reaches a peak, we'll probably have an idea of how many more years it will take to get back to even 2007 levels.
This could easily be 2014 and more likely 2015. Argh.
