When Will We Accept That Knowing a Ton About History May Not Help Us in the Present

I hear a lot and read a lot from "experts" who constantly make determinations about the market of today based on their experience from the past. Traditionally, making predictions based on the past is a good way to gauge what may happen. But you better take notice of the key word in that last sentence "what MAY happen". There are no guarantees and no one can truly predict the future. That's why you've never seen a news report that reads "psychic wins lottery."

In times like these, with all due respect, all bets are off and there's really no one that knows what will happen. Take ten experts, ask them how to fix the market and when it will turn around, and they will give you ten different answers. It's because they don't have a clue and like the rest of us they are taking shots in the dark.

There are no Realtors in the business that were practicing during the Great Depression, and even if there were, times have changed so much it still wouldn't help them. So while we like to track past market statistics in order to make an educated assumption as to what we will face in the future, it doesn't always mean that our assumptions will come true.

In 1861, America went through the Civil War. In 1914 there was World War 1 and in 1939 there was the start of World War 2. Following this time line of history, we could assume that every 40 to 50 years we have a catastrophic war, but right now we're past due. I don't need your history lesson here, I know that I didn't mention Vietnam, Korea, the first Gulf War, Afghanistan, or Iraq. I just used these for a loose example.

The fact is that when you study history, there are many things that are possible. There are many cycles to life that simply never came back around. So, I don't believe that anyone whose in the market today really knows where it's headed, and I think it's time that we accepted that fact. The only thing we can do is prepare the best that we can and seize every opportunity that we can. And the second you think that you know what's going to happen, that's when life throws you a curve.