
Like all markets, interest rates are sensitive to various economic news and events that impact the broader markets. This is a big, big week for those reports. With the Fed exit from the MBS market, these reports will have an impact more than usually. The Fed has softened blows and stabilized things when volatility would have otherwise taken over. We don't have that safety net anymore so watch these reports, not bankrate.com or your local paper, the paper is yesterday's news and bankrate.com (or lending tree or any of them) are all ads and are geared to get you in the door.....Watching the money on the secondary market will tell you where rates will be, not where they were or where we think they should be in order to get you to call in.
here are the on tap reports for the rest of the week and remember, weaker than expected is good for bonds, better than expected is bad. Keep that in mind and check back for more update from me on this:
Wednesday:
Report to be Released: --------------Time of Release--------For------Projections-----Pot. Impact On rates
ADP National Employment Report:........8:15am................March.........40K......................HIGH
Chicago PMI......................................9:45am................March.........61.0.....................HIGH
Crude Inventories.............................10:30am................3/27..........NA.....................Moderate
Thursday:
Jobless Claims.................................8:30am..................3/27...........445k..................Moderate
ISM Index......................................10:00am.................March...........57.0...................HIGH
Friday:
Hourly Earnings..............................8:30am...................March............0.2%.................High
Non Farm Payrolls...........................8:30am...................March...........190k..................High
Unemployment Rate........................8:30am..................March............9.7%.................High
Average Work Week.......................8:30am...................March............33.9..................High
9 economics reports are due out this week, 7 of them are potential rate movers with Good Friday being the big boy; jobs report is a "must watch" this week. The Feds exit from the role of buyer means volatility has ramped up the last few days, wild swings in both directions over a short period time. Shake up type reports like these could firm up the direction bonds are headed near term or could only further the volatility. We'll see, just keep an eye on it or check back here for a break down of the jobs strategy Thursday afternoon and the fallout on Friday after the markets react to the news.
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