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Knoxville, Tennessee real estate sales; are they finally going up?

The National Association of Realtors says: “For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row.”


So is the good news really good news or maybe just a seasonal 'bump' that happens around this time every year and will soon revert back to business as usual (relatively speaking)?

Here's a graph comparing Knoxville, Tennessee area sales through July of 2009 to previous years

knoxville & Farragut Tennessee real estate sales compared to previous years, provided by jim lee, knoxville tn area realtor

So yeah, Knoxville, Tennessee area sales have increased every month so far this year. HOWEVER (and it seems there is usually a "however"), if you compare sales this year to historical sales data for the past 4 years, there were up almost every month following the previous month up unti about April-May and then they started dropping again.

The very simple reason behind this phenomena besides real estate sales being very localized, is that sales are also very seasonal as well in additional to being tied to the health of local economies. Look at the historical data in the graph above.

Typically sales are lowest in December, January, and February. Then they begin rising in March building up to a peak in most places by mid summer and then they start dropping off again until the reach the mid winter low points.

So why do more people buy and sell houses in the spring and summer than in the fall and winter? There are lots of reasons but some of the more common are these:
  • Parents like to buy and/or sell in the spring/summer timeframe because the kids are typically out of school and don’t have to be moved from one school district to another in mid-term.
  • Lots of homebuyers prefer shopping for a home in the warmer months because there is usually a larger selection of houses to choose from, the weather is more pleasant to get out and look, and since the days are also longer, there is more time to look around both after work during the week and on weekends.
  • Companies that transfer employees also try to do more of their job shifting in the summer months for the same reasons. Bottom line; sales are up compared to previous months in 2009 but still way down compared to the same months in previous years.

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Posted Monday Aug 24