Utah was one of the bright spots for a weak national real estate economy in '07. While many local areas had price declines, Utah had double digit price appreciation. Three Utah Metro's were in Business Week's top five for highest appreciation for the third quarter. When foreclosures went up throughout the nation, they went down in Utah.
While examining the 2007 Home Sales stats, I noticed some numbers that seem a bit out of whack. The trend is consistent, but it is especially obvious in Utah County. While home sales are way down, average prices are still up. However, the alarming thing is the average price of homes on the market now. Are we headed for the same real estate destiny as California, Nevada, and Arizona? Did real estate investors artifiitially inflate our housing economy? Were builders a little too optimistic in their housing projections? Will new construction homes sit on the market unsold until foreclosure? Or is the Utah economy really healthy enough to handle the large inventory of homes on the market.
Here are the 2007 home sales statistics. I guess we won't really know what will happen until we're at this point next year.
Number of Houses Sold
# Sold 2006 # Sold 2007 % Change
Utah County 6013 4503 0.25112256777
Salt Lake County 15181 11568 0.237994862
Davis County 4655 3802 0.18324382385
Weber County 4329 3692 0.14714714715
Cache County 1209 1136 0.06038047974
Average Sold Price
'06 Sold Price '07 Sold Price %Change Ave Price Actives Difference
Utah County 261396 289144 0.09596602385 414145 0.30182906953
Salt Lake County 269691 295941 0.08870011252 445283 0.33538670913
Davis County 227960 254510 0.10431810145 358584 0.29023603953
Weber County 166663 184612 0.09722553247 288348 0.35975973476
Cache County 182052 197668 0.07900115345 273907 0.27833899827
Time to Exhaust Existing Inventory
07 Homes Sold #Actives # of Months to Exhaust Supply
Utah County 4503 3539 9.4310459694
Salt Lake County 11568 5863 6.0819502075
Davis County 3802 1930 6.0915307733
Weber County 3692 1844 5.9934994583
Cache County 1136 476 5.0281690141
# of Days on Market
'06 DOM 07 DOM Active DOM
Utah County 50 51 89
Salt Lake County 32 37 77
Davis County 43 44 82
Weber County 57 51 92
Cache County 71 61 98
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Hi Alan, What's YOUR gut feeling about the near future of your market. We, in Wenatchee Washington, are also one of the bright spots and I'm still very bullish with a strong local economy.
The people there in Utah must ignore the national news... I wish people in Albuquerque did.
Alan: a couple of spots seem to be untouchable and UT and WA (as Carol mentioned) are a couple that I think will be OK. Mostly because of a more stable economy and less transient population. What are your thoughts?
I think my particular area of Cache County will be alright. Our appreciation has been less, and our number of homes on the market is at a normal level. With interest rates as low as they are, housing is still very affordable here.
I do think there will be a big problem selling the high end spec homes statewide. More than 9 months of inventory in Provo? That's pretty alarming, especially in light of all the mortgage fraud has gone on down there. It was the statistics I saw that inspired me to write the article.
I honestly don't believe that the Utah Market is going to crash, the economy is very healthy. However there are some things out of whack, and part of the huge economic boom was the robust housing market. With that slowing, so is the big money from those jobs.
There was an article today that Utah is among the lowest in the nation in Unemployment. That's gotta bode well for the housing market.
Very few people posted in this page are doing UTAH real estate business. I don't trust them at all. What kind of skill they have other than selling housing with lying. Lie after lie. Those people made American economic down. Really, what else they can do? In big % of UTAH business are real estate. Really what else they can do more than selling house.