Whatcom County Real Estate Stats for the 1st Quarter of 2011

There are several solid indicators of improvement and we “may” be past the bottom of the market dip. I’ll start off with a summary of the highlights. For the first quarter of 2011 compared to the first quarter of 2010, the percent change in the Average price of Active (Listed- not sold) homes and the Average price of Sold homes Year to Date (YTD) totals are as follows:

List Prices for all of Whatcom County dropped 6.0% while Sold prices dropped only 1.7%

Sudden Valley List prices dropped 4.8% while Sold prices dropped 23.4%. - Ouch

Bellingham List prices dropped 7.5% while Sold prices Increased 4.0% Yes – Up 4.0%

Ferndale List prices dropped 6.2% while Sold prices dropped 2.0%

Blaine/Birch Bay List prices dropped 6.0% while Sold prices dropped 17.0%

Lynden List prices dropped 4.3% while Sold prices Increased 1.2% - Another Increase

Everson/Nooksack/Sumas List prices dropped 17.6% while Sold prices dropped 7.7%

Acme/Deming/MF/Glacier List prices dropped 1.3% while Sold prices dropped 19.0%

However, comparing the single month of Mar 2011 to Mar 2010, the Average Sold Price numbers in most areas of the county show that prices are turning around:

All of Whatcom County Ave. Sold price is $249,250 - Up less than 1% - but Up over Mar 2010 county wide Average Sold Price.

Sudden Valley Ave Sold Price for Mar 2011 is $192,550 - Down 16.5%

Bellingham Ave Sold Price is $304,151 - Up 12.8% - Largest MLS zone - Up

Ferndale Ave Sold Price is $254,236 - Up 6.0%

Blaine/Birch Bay Ave Sold Price is $238,471- Down 23.9%

Lynden Ave Sold Price is $291,140 - Up 4.1% - Another area Up

Everson/Nooksack/Sumas Ave Sold Price is $227,900 - Up 14.3% Another area Up

Acme/Deming/Maple Falls/Glacier Ave Sold Price is $ 119,486 - Down 26.0%

So, what’s it all mean. Stats are always interesting in that they are facts, actual hard data, but at the same time open to interpretation based how they are packaged and presented and what is and is not included in the report. It’s also a matter of interpretation/opinion as to how significant or important any individual stat (or combination of statistical data) is to predicting what is going to happen in the near and/or distant future. The following is my view point and opinion of what the hard numbers are indicating.

As mentioned in my 2010 3^rd Quarter Report & 2010 Year End Report the average Sold prices across Whatcom County are showing signs of improvement. While the Average Sold prices in Sudden Valley, Blaine/Birch Bay, and east county areas where down by a double digit percentages for the month of March 2011 compared to March 2010 – more MLS Zones consisting of a higher density of homes (i.e. Belingham & Ferndale) were actually up over last year. And Bellingham being the largest single MLS zone in the county density wise (more homes included in the Bellingham MLS zone than any other by far) with Average Sold prices up 12.8% is a good indicator that prices have begun to turn around. Combine the increase in Ave Sold prices with the fact that inventories are down and you have some good evidence that prices should be headed in the upward direction. County wide, the number of homes on the market at the end of 1^st Quarter 2011 was 1,253. Last year at the end of the 1^st Quarter there were 1,571 homes on the market. This is 20.2% drop in available inventory. Thus we have fewer homes on the market this year. Combined with an increase of Average Sold price in several of the county’s MLS zones and you can form your own opinion but I believe that the so called “bottom” may be behind us.

Of course, there are some other stats that are not as positive. While Sold prices have are showing signs of improvement, the number of homes actually selling is down. In all of Whatcom County 393 homes sold in the 1^st Quarter of 2010. In the 1^st Quarter of 2011 only 328 homes have sold. That’s a 16.5% drop in the number of homes sold. This is in part due to the Tax Credit program offered last year. Despite the county wide drop, in Bellingham 157 homes sold in the 1^st Quarter of 2011 compared to only 143 in the 1^st Quarter of 2010. For Bellingham the number of homes/units selling is up 9.8%. This paragraph does show you the relative importance of Bellingham – 48% of all the homes sold in Whatcom County so far this year were in the Bellingham MLS zone. Not always, but often the rest of the county lags behind Bellingham. Again, in my opinion, the fact that Bellingham is doing better is a good indicator that the rest of the county will follow in the coming months. We will see how the rest of the year goes.

All of this data is compiled from the NWMLS which is the Multiple Listing Service for Whatcom County. This report is based on the actual numbers from Jan 1, 2011 until March 31, 2011 and is compared to the actual numbers from Jan 1, 2010 to March 31, 2010.

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