The 'buzz' right now about how the local Seattle Housing Market is starting to recover contains some good, some pessimistic, and some just plain confusing information. In an attempt to clear it up a bit I spent the morning putting together some graphs to illustrate the state - over time - of one of the areas of Seattle that I love: The greater Central Area. This encompasses not just the historically referenced Central District, but also, Capitol Hill, Madison Valley, Washington Park, Madison Park, Madrona, Leschi, and Judkins Park. Granted, within this area there are also several smaller neighborhoods, Some parts of this geographic area are much more expensive to purchase in than others. To compensate for that I have omitted any sales over $1,000,000.00 I know, not much fun - but doing this throws off the high outliers and makes these statistics for the Central Area much more sound.
Here is the area we are looking at:
This graph shows Median Sales Prices for Single Family Homes in Seattle Central Area from 2008 to Present

To summarize:
- We have seen MEDIAN Sales prices fluctuate from a HIGH of $528,000 for the 2nd quarter of 2008 to a LOW of $434,500 during the first quarter of 2010
- This is less than $1,000 difference from the first quarter of 2009, so it is fair to say that on a year-over-year basis pricing has been steady in the Seattle Central area for single family housing.
- We are holding our ground and are no longer classified as a 'declining market' by any lenders.
If you are thinking of moving up to the house of your dreams. Now really is the time. Inventory is good, especially in homes over $500,000 and prices of homes in this price range have taken bigger percentage hits valuation than houses under 500,000 did during the down-turn. As inventory sells out, (new inventory is hard to find - and will be nearly non-existent by the end of 2010) pricing may very well trend upwards... don't delay!
Now lets take a look at the number of sales or 'Sales Volume' for Seattle Central Area from 2008 to Present:

Do these numbers look interesting to you? They do to me!:
- Buyers like to buy when things are hot - and prices are high - this does not at first make sense but consider how a Buyer feels when the preception is that prices are falling. The last thing a Buyer wants is to purchase a home today, and have it be worth less in a few months time!
- This is why during the first quarter of 2009 - the quarter with the FEWEST SALES at just 72 - saw the bottom of the market price wise. (a statistical tie with first quarter 2010.
- Buyers were under the perception in the first quarter of 2009 that prices were falling faster than hot honey off a spoon, and stayed away. Conversely in the first quarter of 2010, Buyers saw that an entire year had gone by and prices were not any lower than they were a year ago, in fact they were higher for every quarter since the first quarter of 2009.
- In the first quarter of 2010 we actually saw a Sales Volume INCREASE year over year of 54%! This is mainly because pricing had stabilized long enough for Buyers to feel good about a purchase decision.
So, what is really different in 2010 for the Seattle Real Estate Market? Well - the answer is in the inventory.
What these two numbers show us is very telling to me, and it all has to do with new construction. You see, a Builder/Developer who has built more than one home, rarely - very very rarely - places all the homes they have available into the Multiple Listing Service inventory. This serves two purposes.
- The Builder does not have to show the public that they have literally hundreds and hundreds of homes left to sell - thus they can control, to a point, Buyers perception of inventory and help create urgency to purchase
- The Builder is able to control their pricing and sales volume/rates over time by releasing a project in phases and then publishing sales data into the Multiple List Service only when a unit sales. This keeps the Builders overall marketing time appearing much shorter, and keeps the overall pricing appearing much closer to asking prices.
As mentioned, today there are just under 3600 homes in total listed in the Multiple List Service. What is missing from the current inventory is a huge shadow inventory of new construction! During 2009, the majority of sales were from this shadow inventory of new construction. Today the only shadow inventory of new construction is in a handful of
high end (think over $600,000) condos in Seattle & downtown Bellevue.
Buyers should feel much more confident about the inventory and it being a true reflection of what is available than at any time in the last three years. Since the building boom has truly screeched to a halt, Sellers now have a better shot than at any time in the last three years to sell their house and move up to the home of their dreams!
If you are considering moving up to your dream home, or getting starting in the purchasing process, please call me directly at 206.218.8448 or email
home4saleinfo@me.com I would be happy to arrange a confidential meeting to assist you in making your Real Estate goals a reality!
Joseph R Hill