First Friday in the COOV- oh, and the market

Hello and GOOD Friday to you,

The good news is we have some ROCKIN turn times- the bad news is rates are starting to sneak up on us as anticipated. I have never seen so much volatility. Rates under 6% are still good but it’s hard for me when I just had rates at 5.25 less then a week ago. The market will swing back and forth but now but I think what REALLY needs to be identified is the new TILA regulations and HVCC appraisal issues that will be killing deals as well as slowing down turn times and charging buyers for multiple appraisals if they are dealing with web based brokers or lenders that do not have bank lines.

I have said this before and I will say it again- a realtor and a lender HAVE to be a team in this challenging market. My phone rings 2-3 times a day to try to “help” a fallout due to a poor appraisal or a poor underwriting decision. Most of these items should have been identified in the very beginning of the transaction and could have had a solution. A majority of these are when the buyer is using web based company such as Quicken Loans or Dietech. They have no idea of the issues and if a client was to only google the lender they would find numerous “ripoff.com” findings about these.

So before I get on my soap box- let’s not forget it’s FIRST FRIDAY and the downtown Vancouver area is booming this evening. There is something from 1220 Main Street restaurant all the way down to 1^st and main at the West Coast Bank that is open house for appetizers and wine. The galleries are full of energy and some very interesting art and to end the evening at the glass shop watching them make hand blown glass objects is a perfect way for an affordable, entertaining Friday night! My 12 year old daughter even has fun with me on this walk about!

Current Turn Times as follows:

Underwriting: 12 Hours

Conditions: 12 Hours

Docs: 24 Hours

Funding Review: 48 Hours

*UW Turn Times start when file submission is complete.

*Doc Turn Times start when file has cleared doc prep and is ready to draw.

Our Current Rates for 8/7/2009 are as follows:

15 year fixed – 25 day lock – 4.875%

30 year fixed – 25 day lock – 5.75% at

*Based on o/o, r/t refi w/80% ltv

Unfortunately Friday's bond market has opened down sharply following the release of stronger than expected employment numbers. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the data with the Dow up 136 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates. (Already in the pricing above)

The Labor Department reported this morning that only 247,000 jobs were lost last month and that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.4%. It is always interesting to see the “revised” numbers 6 months later that are more accurate but hey- good news is good news. Both of these readings were stronger than expected. Analysts had forecasted a job loss of 328,000 and an increase on the unemployment rate of 0.1% to bring it to 9.6%. In addition, average hourly earnings also exceeded forecasts with a 0.2% increase.

Today's news was definitely negative for bonds and mortgage rates. It indicates that the employment sector is not as bad as many had thought. While it was still softening last month, it was at a much slower pace than expected. That helps support the theory that the recession may be nearing an end. In fact, some analysts are already stating they think it has ended. This is bad for bonds because economic growth often creates an environment with inflation concerns that make bonds less attractive to investors. The result usually ends up being higher mortgage rates as investors shift funds into a growing stock market.

Next week is another busy one for the markets and mortgage rates. There are several very important economic releases scheduled to be posted in addition to another FOMC meeting that can heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. None of them is due out Monday, but there is relevant data or events scheduled for every other day of the week. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Be sure to say hi if you are downtown Vancouver this evening.

Bill Black CMP

Branch Manager- Vancouver Branch

Loan Network LLC

Mortgage Banker

Click here for Bills Blog

360.326.8891 Office

360.910.3290 Mobile

360.326.1861 Fax

My core business is based upon trust and honesty with it’s clients; we feel that this is the most important component of any business relationship. We constantly measure our business processes to ensure that our clients receive the highest level of service possible.

Wa #520-CL-49546