Monday Market Snapshot 2010/05/24

Market Neutrality? Let's start with defining a neutral market as one that offers advantage to neither the buyer nor the seller. Historically this has been typified in markets where the inventory level is about 6 months. Generally, if the inventory (or absorption) is more than six months, it is a buyer's market, and less than six months it's a seller's market. Our local MLS recently reported market inventory at 6.6 months.

What would a neutral market mean for pricing? Wouldn't that suggest that prices were not rising and not falling? Seems like a fair guess to me. However, I'm not sure that's an accurate read in our market. I'd say that we should ask if market pricing is being controlled by the short-sales and bank-owned even still. The inventory is calculated by dividing the number of homes active (at the end of the month) by the number of homes sold (during the month) and then multiplying by an average market time (I think). Are agents pricing the homes more accurately the first time, and therefore shortening the average market time? That's a possibility. If we held the other numbers steady and shortened the overall market time, that could look like a smaller inventory. I like that theory, but I don't have the numbers to support it. So let's look at the numbers I do have...

I've noticed that the steady decline in active and steady increase in pendings is less steady over the last few weeks. That suggests something is changing. Part of the fluxuation is probably related to the last weeks of the tax credit. After July 1, this effect should settle out. We'll allow a couple of weeks for busy agents to get their transactions posted and so by mid-July we should have a clearer sense of the market. We - the royal we - meaning me. For Vancouver in general we have 2589 homes available with 986 pending. In all of Clark County there are 3607 homes available and 1238 under contract. The proportion of short-sales in active listings is 30% for Vancouver and 26% for Clark County. For both city and county, the bank owned properties represent about 3%, a little less than before.

Active-pending ratios for the city are still around 2.5 and about 2.9 for the county - meaning for every 1 home under contract there are 2.5 or 2.9 homes available. If it weren't for the short-sale and bank-owned pricing pressures, this might be good news for sellers. However, the pricing pressures ARE there and they are affecting market values.

How does this affect you? Well, give me a call and let's talk about it.

Whether you're looking for your first home, or possibly your last, or selling either of them, I have the patience and experience to help you make the best choice in Vancouver Washington. The Natural Choice in real estate is working with a professional real estate agent (me!) at Krogseng Real Estate who listens to your needs and works as a trusted advisor to get the best solution to your housing needs. We will give you a new attitude about real estate. If you are concerned about living a more sustainable lifestyle, Vancouver Washington may be the city for you. I specialize in knowing the neighborhoods in Vancouver Washington that have great walkscore ratings. Whether you want the low-maintenance condo lifestyle, a home that gets you off the grid, or a home that is something in between in Clark County, the natural choice in real estate will be someone that can help you find just the right home and neighborhood. If you're looking for homes that have been certified as green, you'll want to know I keep informed of the newly constructed homes and their various green certifications. Visit Krogseng Real Estate for more information.