Berkeley, CA

Last year, real estate prices in most Berkeley/Oakland neighborhoods dipped again by about 5%. This is very likely the result of continued high unemployment in the East Bay, an increasing number of short sales and overall cautiousness on the part of Buyers. This year, however, there are signs of an Early Spring in real estate in the East Bay (as in better times ahead.)

More Buyers seem to be coming out of hibernation – perhaps with the fear that the deflated prices won’t last forever and extra low interest rates are now hovering around 4%. Stagers, painters and inspectors are getting booked weeks in advance – a sign more people are buying and getting ready to list.

According to a recent article in the SF Chronicle, this is backed up by economists of Bay Area California who expect “moderate growth” in the local economy. Not that we’re going to come roaring back – except in high tech – which is booming. Many expect the technology boom to spread to other areas of the economy. And, in fact, UCLA Anderson forecasts call for East Bay job growth of 2.2% this year (even higher than San Francisco’s 1.4%).

As for real estate prices, experts expect them to remain relatively flat – not down – as foreclosures and short sales decrease. My own view is that real estate prices in the East Bay will start to increase since all economic signs are pointing to increased demand. Not that things will all of a sudden boom, but that we will witness a gradual and early opening of “spring growth.”

If you’d like to take advantage of the early spring in East Bay real estate, just give me a call on my cell phone: 510-847-2409.

Barbara Reynolds, your East Bay real estate specialist

Berkeley CA Real estate sales 2011 compared to 2010: Trends for foreclosures and short sales

Berkeley CA seems to hold it own, with very few distressed properties compared to some of the neighboring cities like Oakland CA and Alameda CA both of whom show an increase in distressed properties from 2010 to 2011.

Distressed Properties (short sales and foreclosures)

Whereas Berkeley’s distressed properties average less than 20% of total sales the last couple of years.

This chart shows the percent of bank owned properties (stripes) compared to regular sales (shaded) during each time period.

Median List and Sold Price

And in the spirit of Paul Harvey, what’s “the rest of the story?”

Berkeley property owners must really listen to their REALTORs because their median list price trended downward. The aggressive list prices generated interested and serious buyers that more than likely resulted in multiple offer situations which partially explains the upward trend in median sold price in 2011.




Months’ Inventory

Inventory levels are quite low. In the 4th quarter 2011, it was at less than 3 months, which can be characterized as a seller’s market. The blue line on this chart represents average days on market.

As of this writing, January 15 2012, there are only 63 properties that are actively offered for sale. I had to blink several times, checked and re-checked. Can this be true? Yep, only 63 for sale!

10 condos
51 detached homes
2 townhouses

Talk about low inventory!

Related Posts

Is your buyer thinking of buying a short sale? What your buyer needs to know.

How to write a good (or bad) offer on an REO (bank-owned) property

Hayward CA housing market: boom to bust. Over 60% of sales in 2011 were bank-owned.

BERKELEY CA Real Estate Sales 2011 over 2010: Looking for foreclosures? Very low inventory!

Oakland CA Homes for Sale January 2012: 55% are short sales and bank-owned

Oakland CA top 5 real estate stories in 2011 including surge in sales and prices

Oakland CA 2011: Short Sales and Bank-Owned Properties are 54% of total sales

Top 5 real estate stories in 2011 nationally and in Alameda CA

Alameda CA Short sales and Foreclosures: Year End Report 2011 compared to 2010

Financial guru Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame used to say that the way to pick a winning stock was to walk around your neighborhood stores and see what was selling. The same could be said for Berkeley/Oakland real estate. Amid the gloom of hard times and increasing foreclosures, there are some bright spots on the East Bay real estate horizon...signs of optimism among the “folks.”

There’s a certain energy on College Avenue outside my office that wasn’t there last year. Home buyers seem more ready to “buy” than to just get a “deal.” More houses in our area are getting multiple offers.

And lo and behold, recent stats are starting to signal a turn themselves. As Jim Cramer of “Mad Money” fame pointed out the other day on the Today Show, auto sales are up. The stock market is up. And just recently, starts of apartment complex building were up. Even the number of homes selling was up 4% over last year.

The best news is... housing puts people back to work. And that should be enough to bring some light in all our lives.

Happy Holidays. Happy New Year, one and all.

Barbara Reynolds, your East Bay real estate specialist

"The real estate market will improve in 2012...gradually." So says Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, at a recent conference.

According to Yun, tight mortgage credit conditions and consumer confidence have been holding us back. Nevertheless, he said, there is a pent-up demand for housing that can’t go unsatisfied forever. The gradual increase in real estate sales will track the gradual increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which is expected to come in at 1.8% this year and grow to 2.2% next year.

Interest rates are expected to rise slightly, according to Yun. From their present all time lows of 4%, they will likely reach 4.5% by mid-2012.

Ok, real estate is slowly starting to turn the corner. We won’t be having a blow out party, but we’re making the turn. We see stabilizing evidence in the Berkeley/Oakland market, which is indicative of a market bottom. For instance, since June of this year, the average sold price in Berkeley was $680,853 (or $407 per square foot). That compares to last year’s $679,531 (or $430 per square foot). The difference in price per square foot is more likely a difference in size of houses being sold. In Oakland, the average price since June of this year was $343,606, with a 28% increase in number of sales. The average price per square foot was $212. That’s higher than last year’s $363,054 average price and $196 per square foot.

The moral of the story given is that house prices likely won’t be declining, but interest rates...and the cost of buying a house...will be going up. If you are thinking about buying a home or trading up and you can get a mortgage – this is the closest thing you’ll get to a “buy” signal.

If you’d like to explore your possibilities for buying a home in Berkeley/Oakland, just call me on my cell phone: 510-847-2409.

Barbara Reynolds, your East Bay real estate specialist

The recent news from the National Association of REALTORS® sounded a pessimistic note amid our struggling real estate recovery. Pending home sales in the U.S. fell 4.6% last month from August levels. Of course, Berkeley being Berkeley, we are not following national traditions – even in real estate. In fact, in the last quarter (ended September 30), half of all sales in Berkeley had multiple offers and sold over asking!

Secondly, in representing a Buyer recently who was trying to buy a house in Elmwood/Claremont, I was in a bidding war with eight others. The house ultimately sold $150,000 above asking. While prices are not back to the high times of 2007, it does portend increasing sale prices in the Elmwood/Claremont neighborhood of Berkeley. In fact, upon further examination, price per square foot in the Elmwood/Claremont neighborhood is up over 7% from last year.

This is one of the first strong healthy signs I’ve seen in the last four years in these parts. You might consider this a “leading indicator” of sorts for Berkeley ... and the East Bay real estate in general. For, while the rest of the country still seems to be stuck in the doldrums, Berkeley seems to be marching to its own drum ... and a decidedly different beat.

If you have any questions on Elmwood/Claremont or Berkeley/Oakland real estate, just call me on my cell phone: 510-847-2409.

Barbara Reynolds, your East Bay real estate specialist