About Big Bear Lake's Big Bear Lakefronts

Today I decided to take a look at sales trends over the past 6 years to see if anything interesting popped out. Below are sales reported by our MLS from 2003 through 2008. I've listed number of homes sold, average days on market, average list price, average sales price, median sales price, and sales price to list price ratio for each year.

2003 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold: 22

Average Days on Market: 96

Average List Price: $898,584

Average Sales Price: $845,068

Median Sales Price: $703,750

Sales Price/List Price: 96%

2004 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold: 23

Average Days on Market: 118

Average List Price: $935,086

Average Sales Price: $904,208

Median Sales Price: $824,500

Sales Price/List Price: 96%

2005 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold: 43

Average Days on Market: 101

Average List Price: $1,272,536

Average Sales Price: $1,213,295

Median Sales Price: $1,025,000

Sales Price/List Price: 97%

2006 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold: 34

Average Days on Market: 127

Average List Price: $1,519,585

Average Sales Price: $1,391,191

Median Sales Price: $1,100,000

Sales Price/List Price: 92%

2007 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold: 20

Average Days on Market: 132

Average List Price: $1,523,836

Average Sales Price: $1,438,973

Median Sales Price: $1,420,000

Sales Price/List Price: 94%

2008 Lakefront Sales

Number of Homes Sold (from January to November 10): 13

Average Days on Market: 190

Average List Price: $1,459,453

Average Sales Price: $1,307,230

Median Sales Price: $1,350,000

Sales Price/List Price: 90%

Things that stick out to me

Obviously there's a big drop off in sales in 2008. That is expected. Sales Price/List Price ratios have also dropped which is expected with so many homes on the market. Days on Market has increased with Supply. What's interesting to see is that sales prices haven't dipped like the rest of the market. We've seen depreciation of approximately 20-30% throughout the valley but the lakefront market has been relatively stable. Click here to read a recent article regarding lakefront homes by Tyler Wood who also works at Coldwell Banker.

Originally Posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com

Monday morning I received an email from a past client who asked me, "When's the best time to sell a Lakefront in Big Bear"? My initial response was Summer. The weather is great, the water level is usually at it's highest point after the winter snow melt, and it seems like the recreational focus shifts from the ski slopes over to the lake. I wasn't sure if my answer was convincing enough (for either of us) so I thought it would be a good opportunity to do some research and share it with everyone. So here you go, Jim.

I looked at 4 key factors in determining when to put your home on the market:

1. Let's take a look at when lakefront homes have sold in the past. I've broken down sales per month over the past 6 years below. It's important to note that these are closed sales. Most buyers and sellers have been in escrow for 30-60 days prior to this so the activity was really 1-2 months prior to the recording date.

Looking at the numbers above I get the following information: January averaged 1.83 sales. February averaged 1.33 sales. March averaged 2.0 sales. April averaged 2.67 sales. May averaged 2.33 sales. June averaged 1.17 sales. July averaged 2.33 sales. August averaged 2.67 sales. September averaged 2.5 sales. October averaged 2.83 sales. November averaged 2.6 sales. And December averaged 2.4 sales. I think you would agree that the first quarter of each year seems to be slightly weaker than the rest of the year......probably because of the weather. But the numbers aren't THAT far off. If homes are priced right, they seem to sell in all seasons of the year.

2. Next, I would recommend that you look at the lake level. Over the past 6 years, the lake has been down over 17.47 feet at the dam (on October 18, 2004) and it's been as high as .34 inches from being full (on May 15, 2006). For more information on lake levels read this post, or click here to see how lake levels impact property values. The photos below were taken from the backyard of the same home and visually prove my point. The top photo was taken in 2004 and the bottom in 2006.

3. Interest rates are another key factor to take a look at. Now.... I understand that some buyers in the $1M to $4M price range for a second home aren't affected by this as much (they pay cash, they may have a better credit rating, etc), but it does affect the affordability for everyone in general. Below is a graph completed by homefinders.com which shows where interest rates have been over the past 25 years on a conventional 30 year fixed rate. Some lenders are speculating that rates will go above 7% next year if more people put money in their pocket instead of investing in long term bonds. It will be interesting to see. If a buyer is in the jumbo loan market, things will change dramatically! Rates for jumbo loans right now are lousy which impacts loans over the $417,000 mark and home sales in the upper end.

Interest Rate Chart provided by Lenn Harley of Homefinders.com

4. I saved the most important factor for last. Supply and Demand....the true measure of when to sell your home. How does your home compare to the competition and how many homes are on the market? A great tool in determining how your home compares to others is to put yourself in a buyers eye. Physically view the competition. Walk through each home as if you wanted to buy in the area and see the positives and negatives of each property. Are they clean? Is the water deeper near one home or another? Are they offering it furnished? Does it have rental history? How's the view? The access? And how does this compare to yours? Currently there are 39 lakefront homes for sale in Big Bear. That seems high, considering only 13 have sold so far this year. Most of these properties have been sitting on the market all year. They've been rejected for one reason or another (price, location, size, etc) and probably won't sell unless they lower their price. So lets make sure your property stands out and is competitively priced!

If I can answer any questions or if you would like to know what the value of your home is in todays market feel free to email me at mikewochner@gmail.com

Originally posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com

We've had a very busy year with about half of our sales coming from bank-owned properties so far in 2008. However, that's half of the number of sales, but only about 20% of the dollar amount. Because it's generally a second-home market and people didn't seem to be getting into crazy negative amortization, adjustable rate mortgages for a vacation home; we have a very small percentage of bank-owned properties (less than 0.5% in our MLS). If the bailouts and Countrywide-style adjustments work as promised, there could be a dramatic increase in our median sales price as soon as these bank-owned properties disappear from the market. www.bigbearteam.com

Below are pending and closed sales along the lake in Big Bear Lake, California for the 3rd Quarter.

(July 1, 2008 through September 30, 2008)

Pending Sales

I've decided not to give my opinion on each particular pending sale because I would hate to have it affect any of the transactions positively or negatively in either direction.

Closed Sales

777 Cove Drive, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Built in 1961, 3153 Square Feet, 3 Bedrooms, 2.75 Baths on a 27,700 square foot lot with Lake Views from virtually every room. Vaulted ceilings, 4 fireplaces, 3 bedrooms, a great room, den, family room and custom kitchen. Quality built-ins. High end custom windows and doors, indirect lighting, a step down bar and a custom 3 slip covered dock. Listed for $2,250,000 and sold on 10/2/2008 for $2,100,000. It was on the market for 85 days.

My Opinion: This is a premium location. It was protected from the wind, you had plenty of breathing room around you (it sits on a 27,700 square foot lot), and the homes around it are consistently large which will help it hold it's value from a comparable standpoint. Some might not like the layout, but you cannot deny the views and the location if you want a deep water lakefront. It is a little further from the ski slopes but owners pay a premium to be on the west end of the lake because of the depth of the water. I grade this buy an A.

41368 Condor, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

This home was never in our MLS but was listed by owner for about 3 months. It was custom built in 2006 with 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, and approximately 3329 square feet just outside the Eagle Point Estates area. It sits on an 11,000 square foot lot but there is only approximately 20 feet of lake frontage. The owner was asking $1,800,000 and it sold on 07/10/2008 for $1,675,000.

My Opinion: Great newer construction in Eagle Point. Good location but not because of the depth of the water: Close to shopping, Snow Summit and Bear Mountain Ski Resorts, the local hospital, etc....but it is not a deep water location. I bring this up because our water levels vary from year to year depending on the precipitation we get. I've seen the lake down 18' at the dam in drought years and I've also seen the lake completely full (everything along the lake looks good when we have a full lake!). I don't doubt the quality of construction or the convenient access to everything "in town", but I question the price for a shallow water lakefront. I grade this buy a C-.

39569 Lake Drive, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

This is a new construction overlooking Metcalf Bay in Big Bear Lake with 4 master suites, 6 bathrooms, and a media/office/exercise room. It features an open living area with cathedral ceilings, tall windows and doors, oak hardwood floors, lots of travertine, and limestone. The bottom floor has a huge family room with wet bar and wine cellar. Listed for $1,990,000 and sold on 9/25/2008 for $1,850,000. It was on the market for 390 days.

My Opinion: Nice newer construction overlooking Metcalf Bay and to the west. Great finishing touches with quality materials. I was a little disappointed with the layout. It's very up and down with a lot of steps and it felt like the builder kept adding square footage because they had it left over in the build-up area (the lot is sloped). From a replacement cost, I think the buyers did fairly well, but I thought they could've gotten a better price. The property was on the market for over a year and it is borderline busy in this area because you are on the cusp of seeing all the boating traffic coming in and out of Holloway's Landing and Pleasure Point Marina. I would grade this buy a B-.

392 Gibralter, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Refurbished 3 bedroom (or 2 plus huge game room with wet bar), 2 1/2 bath lakefront home had new paint inside and out, new flooring, a dock slip, and a 2 car garage. Built in 1981, this conventional floorplan covers 1560 square feet and sat on a 8525 square foot lot. Expansive lake views and centrally located. Listed for $875,000 and sold on 7/14/2008 for $850,000. It was on the market for 3 days.

My Opinion: Decent location at a great price. This was not a deep water location, nor was it a very shallow water location. Nothing too flashy about the home but the buyer was a contractor and saw the potential in buying on the lake in the mid 800's and over time this property will appreciate because they bought on the lower end of lakefront prices and there's room for improvements. I would grade this buy a B+.

The Current Lake Level from the Municipal Water District as of Monday September 29, 2008 is 66'3" measured at the dam (6'1" below full). Last quarterly update the lake level was 4'8" below full.

These numbers were pulled from the Big Bear Association of Realtors MLS on 10/1/2008. All information herein is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Originally posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com

Big Bear Lake, CA

1st Quarter Lakefront Market Update for 2008

Sold Since 1/1/2008

Currently On The Market

* this property is priced for sale with fractional ownership (1/3 ownership interest is being offered).

(These numbers were pulled from the Big Bear Association of Realtors MLS on 4/5/2008. All information herein is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed)