Looking at what is to come for the real estate market in Arrowhead Woods for 2009, I thought it important to look at the sales statistics for bank-owned properties in 2008 (since I don't expect the market to change drastically over the next 12 months or so).
What I found was actually quite interesting: Of the total number of single-family homes sold in Arrowhead Woods in the year 2008, 21.1% of them were foreclosure properties - that's 51 out of 242 units (these statistics do NOT include lakefront properties, condos, vacant land or docks).
Looking at prices, ALL the homes were listed under $600,000 with only 9 properties being listed over $400,000. That means that just over 82% of the bank-owned homes sold in 2008 were listed for under $400,000:
|
LIST PRICE
|
#
|
%
|
|
under $200,000
|
3
|
5.9%
|
|
$201,000 - $300,000
|
25
|
49.0%
|
|
$301,000 - $400,000
|
14
|
27.5%
|
|
$401,000 - $500,000
|
7
|
13.7%
|
|
$501,000 - $600,000
|
2
|
3.9%
|
Of the 51 homes that sold, 25.5% (13/51) of them sold in 10 days or less. A whopping 56.9% (29/51) of them sold in 30 days or less. Almost 70% of the homes sold in less than 60 days. From there, the percentages drop significantly:
|
DAYS ON MARKET
|
#
|
%
|
|
1-10
|
13
|
25.5%
|
|
1-30
|
29
|
56.9%
|
|
31-60
|
6
|
11.8%
|
|
61-90
|
2
|
3.9%
|
|
91-120
|
3
|
5.9%
|
|
121-150
|
5
|
9.8%
|
|
151-180
|
3
|
5.9%
|
|
181-210
|
1
|
2.0%
|
|
211-240
|
2
|
3.9%
|
Comparing the list prices to the prices that the homes sold for, I was surprised to find that 15 of the 51 properties (29.4%) sold for 100% of the list prices or better (6 sold for exactly 100% and another 9 sold for better than 100% - as high as 139% for one property). The average sale, however, fell at a modest 96.9% of the list price. The lowest property went out at 75% of its list price.
Now here's something really interesting - check this out: Of the 13 homes that sold in 10 days or less, the average sale price was just over 100% (the range was 94.4% to 109.1%). Of the 16 homes that sold after being on the market between 11 and 30 days, the average sale price was 97% (the range being 90% to 114%). Go one step further, from 31 to 60 days, and the average sale price drops down to 90.8% (with a range of 75% to 97.5%).
|
DAYS ON MARKET
|
% OF LIST TO SALE PRICE
|
|
1-10
|
100.0%
|
|
11-30
|
97.0%
|
|
31-60
|
90.8%
|
So, to learn from the past so we can apply it to the future, what do these numbers tell us to expect in the 2009 market (for the bank-owned segment)?
About 20% of the total inventory in Arrowhead Woods is likely to be bank-owned. Roughly 80% of those listings will be under $400,000. Once listed, 70% of those homes will be gone within 60 days and will sell for about 97% of their list prices.
Let's go through that with some hypothetical numbers: A new bank-owned listing comes onto the market. It's "the One" and you want to write an offer on it. Chances are 7 out of 10 that this home will be gone within 60 days and 1 out of 4 that it will be gone within 10 days.
Now this is where "the mind games" start: If you decide to make an offer within the first 10 days of the listing, you pretty much have to be resigned to pay at least full price. If you want to risk it, the longer you go, the chances of you getting it for less increase significantly over time. The longer you wait, however, chances for other offers to come in increase significantly. Ah, the drama! What to do, what to do?
What would I do? After representing several clients in the successful purchase of bank-owned homes, I've learned a trick or two. Give me a call and I'll tell you what they are! I can be reached most days at 909.336.7971...
*Figures taken from the Rim O' the World Multiple Listing Service and are deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
CLEAN means (usually): Full price OR more, and CASH, if at all possible. Don't ask the bank for "extras" like Home Warranty Plan, Termite work, etc. You pay for your own termite inspection and any work called out. CLEAN IS CLEAN, period! (I know, many will squawk that I didn't mention loans, but in our area, we do get a lot of cash offers). If you're getting a loan, be pre-qualified, letter in hand!
