Five Year Housing Chart for
Lake Elsinore, California
I've
recently provided a copy of this report to our local officials
for the City of Lake
Elsinore. This information may prove helpful in
determining
city budget forecasts for the coming year as they evaluate the impact
the downturn in our housing market has had on their revenue
stream.
Of
course property tax revenue is just one source of income for the city
but a major one. As the state continues to wrestle with a budget that
may or may not include some trade-off between property taxes and
vehicle license fees, a city like Lake Elsinore that is in the midst of
a housing resurgence needs to know where current property values
are.
As
you look at the attached chart and graphs, you will notice that the
number of sales has declined steadily through 2007 while median values
continued to grow through 2006. Total home sales value peaked in
2005 at more than $383
million dollars with
1,054 homes sold, a
number that fell to just $122
million in 2007 with just 335 homes changing
hands.
Spurred
by declining values, a surplus of inventory to choose from and
attractive interest rates, sales rebounded in 2008 to post a near five
year record high. But the
decline in the median
price of a home will leave the city nearly 40% off the peak revenue
pace of 2005, nearly $260 MILLION. Couple that decline
with the reduced
revenue from Proposition 8 mandated property tax reductions for
existing homeowners and you understand why Lake Elsinore is looking at
alternative revenue sources and holding the line on expenses for 2009.
By
tracking these numbers an investor or prospective homebuyer can
determine where they think the market is. As I pointed our last August,
one month of sales increase doesn't mark a trend. But as sales volumes
continue to grow that will lead to the continued absorption of our
excess inventory, the return to a more stable market and the end of the
rampant price
declines - 45% in just the past year. I am expecting to
start seeing that stability develop by late 2nd to early 3rd qyarter
this year in our local market, possibly sooner depending on mortgage
interest rates and federal stimulus incentives. Subscribe for your own
market updates by clicking the link at the bottom of this page and let
me know what you think is happening.
Gene
Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes including
Temecula, Murrieta & The Southern California Wine Country
Remember, Don't wait to buy real
estate - Buy real estate and wait.
' Five Year Housing Chart
for Lake Elsinore, California'
THE OPINIONS IN
THIS
COMMENTARY ARE STRICTLY GENE WUNDERLICH's PERSONAL OPINION. WHILE ANY
REASONABLE &/or RATIONAL PERSON SHOULD AGREE, THESE VIEWS MAY
NOT
REFLECT THOSE OF ACTIVERAIN, COLDWELL BANKER RESIDENTIAL BROKERAGE OR
ANY LOCAL, STATE OR MENTAL INSTITUTION.
The 
