Mill Valley, CA

Mill Valley, CA  Real Estate Market Report for Nov. 15th

The median single family home price in MILL VALLEY 94941  according to the Real Estate Market Report for Nov. 15th is $1,350,000. Mill
Valley real estate Inventory has been tightening and days-on-market
decreasing recently.  The Market Action Index has been basically flat,
not providing strong indication for market conditions.  The average $
per square foot this week is $619/SF, and homes have been on the market
for an average for 140 days..  The median house size is 2,233

The market for Mill Valley real estate continues its bounce again this week. According to the Real Estate Market Report for Nov. 15th We're a
long way from the market's high point so watch the Market Action Index
to predict how long this trend will last.

Mill Valley conditions are currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30). According to the Real Estate Market Report for Nov. 15th The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 15. With several
months of inventory available in Mill Valley at the current sales rate,
buyers should find ample choice.

Parks and Trails

Mill Valley is home to many nature trails and parks including one dog park where rover can exercise off the leash. Most valley parks have playgrounds for children of every age, and were designed for playing various sports. Mill valley is also home to the steps,lanes,and paths program that provides pedestrians with safe places where they can walk freely while soaking in the beautiful scenery offered by winding historic residential roads and flower covered hills.

Mill Valley School district
The mill valley school district contains 5 elementary schools, one middle school, four time California distinguished school winner Tamalpais High School, as well as a 258 student pk-8 independent school Marin horizon school. Over looking Old Mill Park is the municipal library home of the Lucretia Hanson Little History Room, and it is the provider of over 94,941 free passes to bay area museums for its local residents to date.

Community events

Dipsea race is the second oldest foot race in the united states, and the oldest cross country trail running event in the united states as well. To say Mill Valley is a great place for avid runners would be a great understatement.

Free Outdoor Shakespeare in Old Mill park is provided by curtain theater every summer. There are many great plays every year in the intimately beautiful setting of Old Mill Park's redwoods. The setting brings to life plays such as Mid Summer Nights Dream like a stage never could, and is designed to impress both first time theater viewers and the most frequent theater goers equally.

The Mill Valley Film Festival a filmmakers festival is a noncompetitive film festival. It was founded in 1978 by director Mark Fishkin and has an impressive track record for quality programing, and has launched many careers. It is the only prominent film festival in the entire San Francisco Bay Area, and has attracted many stars such as Billy Bob Thornton, Forest Whitaker, and even Tim Robins.

Why buy in Mill Valley?
Mill Valley, is located about 4 miles north of San Francisco making it a painless commute, surrounded by natural beauty including; gorgeous views of Richardson bay, Enormous Redwoods, and a sweeping view of Mount Tamalpais. Mill valley's view of the Golden Gate bridge though less known then that of San Francisco's is preferred by many of its inhabitants.Over all Mill valley is a great place to raise a family or enjoy the simple beauty of our Redwood forests and the Pacific ocean. With Mill Valley's strong buyers market and wonderful attractions now is the time to buy in Mill Valley.

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We know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.

Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.” And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST. Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.

Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.

Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com]

As of November 6, 2009 only 25% of available listings in Mill Valley are in escrow.

For the month of October 2009 24 homes sold in Mill Valley, for an average final selling price of $1,080,144. (7 of these homes were distress sales.)

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,216,288.

The range of final selling prices was from a low of $260,000 to a high of $3,680,000.

Of the 24 homes that sold 3 sold over their original asking price and all others sold for less than their original asking price.

It took these homes an average of 122 days to sell.

To see everything that is currently available for sale through our MLS, click here.

To learn more about this area, visit my website or feel free to contact me directly.

The good new is that it seems the media has turned a corner on its reporting of the U.S. and worldwide economies, as well as the housing market. Positive press coverage has permeated all forms of media and is certain to change the tide, although it will take time. Significantly, San Francisco agents are reporting a significant surge in sales and prices. We know from past experience, that once San Francisco recovers, surrounding communities recover in a geo-concentrically expanding fashion.

Barring special circumstances, there is generally nothing more important to sellers than the net amount of funds they retain when their home is sold. As every real estate professional will attest, pricing correctly for the market at the outset of the listing period is far and away the most important factor in the sales process — as they say, "price conquers all buyer objections."

Each year in the real estate industry, numerous books are written, classes are taught, and sermons are delivered on the topic of pricing. Managers implore their agents to advise their clients about the dangers of over-pricing and agents natter on amongst themselves about the importance of this element of the home sales process.

Nonetheless, homes come on the market that are overpriced based on recent market data. And this injures not just the sellers, who end up netting less on the sale of their home, but it collaterally hurts the listing agent’s reputation, the neighborhood’s reputation, and the morale of buyers and sellers (who are understandably frustrated by incorrect pricing, although for different reasons).

The image below is a snapshot of just how big a hit sellers take when they price incorrectly in the Mill Valley, California real estate market for homes between $1 million and $2 million (based on sales from January 1, 2009 to October 7, 2009).

For example, if a home sells within the first 30-days, those sellers received an average of ~97% of list price. I think all would agree that is a great result! At the other end of the spectrum, homes sitting on the market for over 120-days, sold for 82% of list price. Those are startling figures.

Let’s do a touchstone example with easy math — we have a house that I estimate should sell for about $1 million.

• Option 1: The sellers go with my suggested list price of $1 million — because it is priced approprately, it sells after the 1st open house for $997,000 (e.g., 97%).
• Option 2: The sellers decide to list it at $1.1 million (to test the market and/or to allow "wiggle room" in negotiations) and it takes 5 months to sell — eventually, it sells for $902,000 (e.g., 82% of list price).

The takeaway:

By pricing correctly at outset, not only do the sellers net $95,000 more for the sale of their home, but they also avoid the massive inconvenience of prolonged marketing (open houses, showings, and general anxiety — and you can’t put a price on that).

By: Kyle Frazier, CRS (Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate). Kyle is a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist and is available for counselling and selling services in Marin County, California.