There's a one-level (ranch style) home for sale in Arvada's Pomona Lakes neighborhood, which caught the eye of a neighbor because it's larger than most (1,682 square feet on the main level plus a full finished basement). The asking price was recently lowered to $269,900. So the gentleman and his wife and I went to see the house yesterday.

It is definitely good-sized, with a finished basement.  It had been remodeled some over the years (built in 1972), but doesn't have any of the 'wow' items that buyers want today, such as wood floors (there was some older parquet, that needed to be replaced), or granite counters, or new appliances.  It did look well-kept and clean, and we didn't see any deferred maintenance such as rotten fascia or leaking gutters. There are vinyl windows, lots of recessed lighting in the basement, the carpets are in OK shape. But the yard is small, the backyard is dominated by the neighbors' 2-story house.

So this couple felt the price is too high, and I agreed.  His estimate of value, however, was quite a bit lower than mine.  So I went back to the office and did the research . . .

18 homes sold in Pomona Lakes in the past year, only six were comparably sized, and none of those were ranch style. There is one ranch home of the same size currently under contract, and the subject property is the only one currently for sale. 

The one that is currently under contract was listed for $279,900, but we can't know how much it's selling for until after it closes. (Homes around here usually sell within 3% to 5% of asking price.) It has a remodeled kitchen with granite counters, new windows, roof, and furnace; updated baths, and new carpet.  In addition, it's on a quieter street. It will be interesting to see the final price on this home, because nothing has sold in Pomona Lakes for that price since August of 2008. In the past six months, the highest sale was $265,000.

There's more about each of the six sales of larger Pomona Lakes homes below. After reading through the info, what do you think would be a fair price for this home?

BTW - this couple decided not to pursue this home. If you think this sounds like a home you might like to have, please give me a call. (I'm not providing the address in this post only because some agents would accuse me of 'interfering' with their listing.) 

Arvada is a mid-sized town located about midway between Denver and Boulder, Colorado, in Jefferson County. Pomona Lakes is a popular neighborhood, built in the early 1970s, at Arvada's northern border, between 80th Ave. and 86th Ave. and west of Wadsworth.)

Pomona Lakes' Market Activity

8264 Yarrow St - a 2040 square foot 2-story with full basement. This house is on the corner of Yarrow and Pomona, a quite busy intersection, and just a few steps away from Wadsworth, a main north-south arterial. It has gone through a series of owners, and hard times lately, and didn't look any better from the outside after each one.  This time, it was on the market for 104 days before it finally sold for only $200,000 four months ago. (BTW - the current owners have put in some work, and it is looking better already.)

8152 Ammons Way - a huge bi-level with 3,279 square feet, which backs to a green belt. It was a short sale on the market for 83 days.  No pictures were provided except for the main exterior shot, and no description was provided.  This home closed for the bargain price of $235,000 just two months ago.

8314 Field Ct - a 2,170 square foot tri-level with basement, the agent stated that it had a new garage floor and driveway, and new paint. The photos showed that it was also dated, dark, and had yellow kitchen cabinets. This one was on the market for only 4 days, and closed at $258,000 about six weeks ago.

8262 Ammons - a 1931 square foot tri-leel with basement. The agent provided not remarks.  Based on the photos, the interior seemed dated except for updated baths. The kitchen had tile floor, pinkish-looking cabinets, and granite-look counters. After 80 days on the market, Ammons sold for $259,000 ten months ago.

8204 Flower Ct - a 2196 square foot 2-story with a full basement, had a main floor laundry. The kitchen cabinets appear to be original, had new-lookig white appliances, and a tile floor. Decor looks dated. It sold for $265,000 less than three months ago.

8280 Dover Way - a 2045 square foot tri-level with finished basement that backs to a green belt, had some wood floors, tile in the bath. The kitchen had oak cabinets, white appliances, light-colored counters. The dining room had carpet, there were vinyl windows. This sold for the neighborhood's top price of $270,000 after only seven days of the market, eleven months ago.

So, the top-priced comparable we have from the past six months is 8314 Field Ct., at $258,000.  I would say the subject home is in better condition, and ranch-style plans tend to sell higher than tri-levels, but it does have that unfortunate small backyard.

So, how much do you think this home will sell for?

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Out of the 600 homes in this neighborhood, there are only 2 for sale right now.  They’re both listed in the $270s.  Neither of them are distressed sales (foreclosure or short sale). Wow! What a change from the past few years.

There are three homes currently under contract – none of them are distressed sales.  We can’t know what their final selling price will be until they close, but if they end up close to their asking prices, there’s definitely the beginning of an upward price trend for this neighborhood.
 
The three under contract homes weren’t on the market long – it was just 7, 15, and 16 days for them to get acceptable offers.

It appears that one of them is a fix & flip  – 8380 Estes was just sold Feb. 5 2009 for $154,735.  It was a short sale.  It was remodeled and re-listed on April 30 for $249,000.  It was under contract just 2 weeks later.  The re-emergence of ‘flippers’ is a good sign of the market picking up.

Since January 1, eight homes have sold here.  Five of them were distressed sales.  (Three were short sales, one was HUD owned, one was bank owned.

Sold prices for the distressed sales were from a low of $154,735 to $235,000.
Sold prices for the non-distressed sales were from $258,000 to $264,950
Sold price per square foot for distressed sales averaged $94, and $84 for finished square feet.  (One of those was my short sale listing – guess which agent got the most for her listing?  Uh-huh!)
Sold price per square foot for non-distressed sales averaged $121 and $105 for finished square feet.

Days on market for non-distressed sales were: 4, 9, and 155
Days on market for bank-owned averaged:  92
Days on market for short sales averaged:  151

All in all, this is good news for Pomona Lakes home sellers.  However, in 2008 price per square foot was $119.  That combined distressed sales and non.  That compares to the current $107.  So prices are lower now than last year.  Also, average days on market last year was 68, compared to 82 so far this year.  That means home buyers can still get a great value on a home here.

Low prices and longer days on market are a lingering effect of distressed sales.  If Pomona Lakes can remain free of short sales and foreclosures – or at least keep them to only a few – these numbers will turn around. Market values will increase.

Check out my previous post on Pomona Lakes' Sales Statistics.

Read more about the Pomona Lakes neighborhood.

Pomona Lakes is located near the northeast section of the city of Arvada, Colorado. Arvada is an historic small town about midway between Denver and Boulder, in Jefferson County.

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Pomona Lakes - an established neighborhood in the north eastern quadrant of Arvada, Colorado, in Jefferson County. Featuring parks, playgrounds, trails, wide, curvy streets and sidewalks, churches and shops.

There actually is a 3-acre lake called Pomona. It is one of a number of nearby lakes, and residents enjoy walking its perimeter on a paved walking trail, or fishing, or sitting on a bench and enjoying watching the ducks and geese. You'll meet lots of neighbors with dogs or on bicycles too (that's my little beagle Daphne, in the photo).

The neighborhood also enjoys three parks and many nearby stores, restaurants, and services such as banks and a post office. From the eastern part of Pomona Lakes, you can walk to three banks, seven restaurants, a veterinary clinic, three grocery stores, a clothing store, a Goodwill store, a couple salons, jewelry store, two dry cleaners, a couple of auto repair shops, a Target store, Hobby Lobby, shoe store, three bakeries, and at least two coffee shops.

Consequently, neighbors tend to spend a lot of time outside, enjoying the pleasure and convenience of living in Pomona Lakes.

Pomona Lakes' children attend Webber elementary school (which is also where we all meet to vote), Moore Middle School, and Pomona High School. We enjoy hearing the award-winning Pomona High School marching band rehearse early on Saturday mornings each fall.

There is no homeowner association, which makes some people worry that homeowners will let their property deteriorate. While that is possible, the City of Arvada has codes, and they do enforce them.

There are about 600 homes in Pomona Lakes, built in the early 1970s. Styles are mixed between single story, two-story, bi-levels, and tri-levels. Most have basements. Lot sizes are larger than those you'll find in newer developments, and mature trees grace every street.

About a third of the current residents are original owners - a testament to the fact that once people live here, they like it and tend to stay. Most years, only about 10 to 12 homes sell here.

2008 home sales ranged from $167,300 to $279,000, or about $119 per square foot. See my post on how Pomona Lakes real estate is faring in this economy.

2008 saw 4 foreclosures on the market, and 2 short sales. Average number days on the market (from the time of listing until the home is under contract) is 68, the range was from 2 to 243.

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How much have prices fallen? When will we hit bottom?

It's amazing how many people, including some real estate agents, spit out whatever numbers they heard most recently on the national news - followed by a statement that we are a year or two from recovery. They forget one of the most basic principles of real estate: All Real Estate is Local

Other agents rely on their 'years of experience' and tell you that their 'gut feeling' is ... well, just so happens to also be the most recent numbers that were announced on the national news!

I prefer to answer these questions differently - do the research first, then answer the question! I've been tracking Arvada's Pomona Lakes neighborhood for a few years now, and printing my findings in my Neighborhood Newsletter. I've expanded the Newsletter to include all of Arvada, and important events throughout the Denver metro area. If you want a copy of the Newsletter, let me know! If you like the analysis I do here, I'll gladly do the same for your neighborhood too.

In the meantime, back to answering the questions -

Pomona Lakes' 2006 average sold price (after concessions) was $242,471
Pomona Lakes' 2007 average sold price (after concessions) was $245,423
Pomona Lakes' 2008 average sold price (after concessions) was $222,705

Did the value of Pomona Lakes homes drop almost 10% from 2007 to 2008?  Before you answer, consider this -

The homes that sell for the least per square foot are bi-levels.  In 2007 bi-levels accounted for 14% of the market.  In 2008 bi-levels accounted for 50% of the market.  Since bi-levels sell for less, could that shift account for some of the price reduction?

2007 Average sold price for tri-levels was $245,906.  2008 average sold price for tri-levels was $247,505.

That doesn't look like a price drop to me!

Average days on market 2006: 87.8   Average days on market 2007:  69.99          Average days on market 2008:  68

Price per finished square foot (all styles)  2006:  $104.53   2007:  $107.19     2008:  106.83 

Pomona Lakes has remained pretty stable!

The point of all this is -

Those who are waiting for prices to drop further to buy your home - be careful!  You just might miss the bottom.

2006 Pomona Lakes Homes Sold (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                           Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8138 W. 81st Ave.     210,000       210,000           1,000            114/114*        73       Bi-level  
8174 Ammons Way    234,900       226,000           5,000            120/120**      43       Tri-level
8193 Flower Ct.         224,900       224,900           5,000            152/80            41       Ranch  
8345 Dover Way        269,950       269,950           2,000            140/140**        7       Tri-level
8226 Yarrow              255,000       255,000           6,000            117/90          276       Tri-level
8347 Club Crest Dr.    239,000       240,000         13,000            112/112*         61       Bi-level 
8452 Dover Ct.          244,990       248,000           4,236            145/110         155       Tri-level
8335 Dover Way        283,000       283,000                0              171/90            14       Ranch 
8241 Pomona Dr.       249,900       239,400           6,000              88/88*           40       Bi-level
7959 W. 82nd Pl.       270,000       265,000         13,780             145/123         127       Tri-level
8258 Everett Way      219,900       222,700           6,600             106/106*       192       Bi-level
8445 Dover Way        284,900       270,000           3,000             124/94            39       Two-story
8274 Ammons Cir      255,000       252,150           8,650             148/81           124      Ranch 
8322 Flower Ct.         289,000       280,000           2,000             119/105           72      Tri-level
8245 Yarrow              229,999       229,999           3,000             115/115*         53      Bi-level

2007 Pomona Lakes Homes Sold (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                            Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8121 W. 81st Pl.         225,000     215,400         4,500              129/129**   158         Tri-lvl
8300 Dudley Way       236.500     213,000               0               137/78          58         Ranch
8281 Brentwood Ct     293,888    286,000          3,200              140/100        18         2 story
8062 Ammons Way     284,000    284,000                0              135/135**       8         Tri-lvl
8247 Yarrow Ct.         229,900     226,315          7,650             123/123*       46         Tri-lvl
8632 84 Cir               305,000     305,000          6,200              141/97          16         2-story
8053 Ammons Way    279,900     279,000          5,000              142/110       135        Tri-lvl
8440 Dover Way        259,500     267,000          7,000              180/95            3        Ranch
8421 Allison Ct.         231,000     231,000          4,897              132/107         13        Tri-lvl
8270 Allison Ct.         229,900     210,000          3,000               98/78          169       Tri-lvl
8194 Field Ct.           225,000      225,000                 0              129/129*      11        Bi-level
8452 Dover Ct.         249,900      246,500                 0              145/110        92        Tri-lvl
8680 84th Ave.         245,000      253,500         14,000              117/92          88       2 story
8382 Flower Ct.        279,900      275,900           3,000              127/127**      6        2 story
8150 81st Pl.            269,000      265,000           2,400              154/116      102        Tri-lvl
8205 Ammons Cir     268,000      260,000                  0              142/107       80        Tri-lvl
8270 Allison Ct.        279,900      274,000                  0              128/98         22        Tri-lvl
8261 Pomona Dr.      219,900      194,900                  0                91/84         41        Bi-level
8427 Dover Ct.         255,200      248,000                  0              162/162**    95        Bi-level
8447 Dover Ct.         249,900      245,000            3,800              121/97       167        Tri-lvl
8252 Yukon Ct.         219,900      214,000                  0                98/77       140         2-story

2008 Pomona Lakes statistics (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                           Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8207 Everett St.        239,900      239,000                 0               110/86         20       Two-Story
8394 Dudley Ct.        173,250      173,250           4,850                82/82*          6        Bi-level 
8324 Everett Way      234,950      234,950                 0               135/135*      12        Bi-level 
8236 Yarrow Ct.         239,000      238,500                 0               124/100         6        Tri-level
8204 Everett St.        188,900       189,000          2,475                92/92*       123       Bi-level 
8295 Dover Way        265,000       265,000         10,000              152/112          2       Tri-level
8133 Ammons Way    238,000       225,000             860              134/134*       14       Tri-level
8197 Dudley Way       199,900      199,900          13,725             114/114*     243       Bi-level 
8281 Allison Ct.          269,900      265,000                 0              145/110         12      Tri-level 
8342 Club Crest Dr.    167,900      167,300           5,310               96/96*        231      Bi-level 
8262 Ammons Cir.      258,900      258,900           4,015               134/101        80      Tri-level
8533 W. 84th Cir        259,900      257,900                  0             120/120*        68      Bi-level

 

Sold by various realtors. List price at time of sale, original list price could be different.
‘Concessions’: how much the sellers contributed (down payment, closing costs, repairs).
‘PSF’: price per sq ft/price per finished sq ft. *no basement   **unfinished basement
‘DOM’: current days on market/total days on market
Info from table above was taken directly from Metrolist on February 17, 2009.

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