Longmont, CO

Recap of First Quarter 2008 Home Price Performance

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, to $311,000. The first quarter of 2008 was $278,000 vs. the first quarter of 2007 was $296,000: a 6% decrease. Note that prices in the first quarter are usually a bit less than the rest of the year. This is because families that tend to purchase larger, more expensive homes tend to move in the summer months when their kids are out of school.

The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped -3% to $188,000 from 2006 to 2007. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%. This trend continued in the 1Q 2008; foreclosure volume was up another 15% at the expense of the non-distress sellers.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in Denver. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from April 2007 to March 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

The good news is that the foreclosures are likely to peak in the next six to nine months. Many of the foreclosures were due to resetting rates on ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages). There are two reasons. First, according to Bank of America data, the volume of ARM resets is set to peak in March 2008. It often takes six months or a bit longer for an ARM reset to conclude in the sale of a foreclosed home. Second, the index rates that many ARMs use have declined lately. As a result, some borrowers that might have had a huge shock if their rate reset a year ago might get less of an increase today. For these reasons, we're likely to hit the bottom of this cycle this year.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

Take a look at the first page, for AUN (Aurora North). Note these positive market trends this year:
- number of active listings steadily declining
- average list price pretty stable (finally!)
- U/C up dramatically
- Number of sales / month up (partially seasonality)
- DOM dropping
- Stability in average sold prices and sold price as % of list
- Sold price as % original price UP a lot - banks are getting better at pricing
- Number of expired listings down

Every indicator is improving this year in AUN. You will see the same trends in DSW (southwest Denver County), but not as marked an improvement as AUN.

By contrast look at DSE (southeast Denver County).
- listings are up (they should be - seasonality)
- Note the average list price ($758,000) is a lot higher than the average sold price ($418,000). Lots of expensive listings brining up the average ask price, but apparently they are not selling
- DOM (Days on Market) declining as it normally would due to seasonality
- Average price declining rather rapidly. Probably a mix issue - smaller, cheaper homes are probably selling better.

Since these homes in DSE are pricier, it has more of an effect on the "average" sales price on metro Denver. Oddly, we could see improvement led by the cheapo neighborhoods, with the lux neighborhoods falling behind for a while. It will be interesting to watch.

There are some signs of strengthening in our Denver market. The metro area's inventory of available resale housing decreased 20% to 23,120 units in October from October 2007. Some of this reduced inventory is attributed to homeowners taking their properties off the market in frustration because their property is not selling, but lower inventory implies a strengthening market. Remember, the Denver area had housing inventory of 31,989 units in July 2006. Home sales rose 14% to 4,265 in September compared to the same month last year. This is due almost entirely to the lower-end of the market (under $180K) selling like hotcakes. October's median selling price for single-family homes decreased 12% to $206,000 from the same month of '07, and was down 4.7% from September's median of $216,150. Median selling price for single-family homes dropped 10.5% to $222,000 through October, from $248,000 through October '07.Prices are still falling, but at a slowing pace. This trend should continue into 2009 when it is expected to bottom out and slowly climb back. Hang on, it's gonna continue to be a wild ride!

Colorado Mortgage Broker Licensing
In response to the troubled national real estate market and Colorado’s high volume of home foreclosures, efforts have increased to make higher caliber professionals involved in real estate. Licensing, rules and regulations have become more stringent for agents, appraisers, title companies and mortgage brokers. In regards to mortgage brokers, the below items are mandatory. No longer can someone open up the Yellow Pages, claim to be a mortgage broker and then be compensated for placing a loan --- what a novel concept. Before committing to a mortgage broker, please make sure that they are licensed in Colorado by searching for them on the following link: http://eservices.psiexams.com/crec/search.jsp
• Licensing
All mortgage brokers conducting business in CO must be licensed with the Division of Real Estate and pass the criminal background check. Only those mortgage brokers who are licensed or exempt from licensure by law may broker a mortgage, offer to broker a mortgage, act as a mortgage broker, or offer to act as a mortgage broker. Licensing registration and renewal is $200 every three years.

• Surety Bond
Prior to licensing, an applicant for license shall post with the Director of the Division of Real Estate a surety bond of $25,000. Yearly premium approximately $190.00.

• Errors & Omissions Coverage
All CO mortgage brokers must carry Errors & Omissions coverage. For mortgage brokers with less than five years of experience, the annual premium is $600. With five years or greater lending experience, the premium is $500 per year.


• New Pre-Licensing Education & Continuing Education
1. Complete 40 hours of licensing education and pass the two-part licensing exam (Mortgage Lending Basics & State and Federal Law) by January 1, 2009. Approximate cost for course is $250 and $74 for the exam.
2. Complete a minimum of nine hours of continuing education every three years.

Loan Considerations for Buy and Hold Investors


As far as investment loans, little or no money down loans are impossible. However, lenders do permit the use of Home Equity Lines of Credit or second mortgages from other properties owned by the borrower as a source of down payment. Or, self-employed borrowers are using funds from business lines of credit to fund down payments or renovations (please note: there are asset seasoning guidelines for doing so and the debt incurred by accessing other credit lines must be accounted for against the borrower’s debt-to-income ratio). Thus, we have clients leveraging themselves with other homes they own in order to get in with little or nothing down.
There are exceptions, but practically every lender requires Full Income Documentation on any investment purchase. Full Documentation requires the proof of income through W2s, pay stubs and/or tax returns, as well as proving liquid assets with bank statements. The max LTV is 85% on a non-owner single family property (75% for a 3 - 4 unit); however, most homes are being affected with the ‘declining market’ tag. As such, the maximum loan permitted would be 80% of the purchase price. This is due to mortgage insurance companies refusing to provide MI on investment properties in declining markets. Also, if an investor does not have landlord experience in the past two years, new rules will now not allow any rental income to be included as monthly income. Hence, the buyer would need to qualify with the entire payment going against his/her debt-to-income ratio.
Another point to keep in mind is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are only permitting a maximum of 4 financed properties on a borrower’s credit report. Hence, if a borrower is looking to purchase or refinance a fifth home and already have four loans on their credit, they will face a tremendous challenge in securing financing. This latter rule only affects someone purchasing or refinancing an investment property/second home and NOT an owner occupied purchase.
All this being said, if an investor can put down 20% (or borrow a good chunk of that 20% from other homes they own or lines of credit), is Full Doc, with a 680+ credit score and DTI below 50%, rates are in the upper 6% range on 30yr fixed mortgages with no prepay penalties. With home prices bottoming up in most neighborhoods, coupled with a bullish rental market with increasing rents and low vacancy, investors can easily generate hundreds of dollars of cash flow per month. In fact, many investors choose 15 year fixed mortgages to pay off the loan quickly, yet still cash flow tremendously.