About Tallahassee's Bull Run

The Bull Run neighborhood in Tallahassee is still a new construction market, where 65% of homes sold there this year have just been built. This is very contrary to most of the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, where new home growth is almost non-existent. Currently, when we look at the homes for sale in Bull Run, only 5 of the 21 listed homes were built prior to 2011, which means existing home sellers are very few and far between right now.

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Of course, this is not a big surprise. This popular Northeast Tallahassee neighborhood only began to sell homes in 2005, and the majority of homeowners in Bull Run have only lived in their homes for less than five years, meaning that they have not yet reached the time frame in which most homeowners typically move (historically, 5 to 7 years for this demographic).

Nevertheless, home values are on the decline in Bull Run, just as they are everywhere else in Tallahassee. While sales remain relatively steady, homebuyers are getting new construction homes at prices which are 16% below what buyers paid just a few years ago. This is attracting a small, but steady growth of new people into Bull Run.

Bull Run Home Prices

The average price of a home sold in Bull Run this year has been just under $290,000, down from $299,000 in 2010 and $292,000 in 2009. This is very little price fluctuation and at face value is rare in a market that has been seeing significant declines in average home prices over the past few years.

Bull Run Home Values

Home values have been on a steady decline in Bull Run, just as they have everywhere else in the Tallahassee real estate market. But the rate of decline (down 20% since the peak) is far better than any other neighborhood in Tallahassee that we have analyzed.

Home Sales In Bull Run

We we separate new home sales from existing home sales, we find that existing home sales have depreciated at 25%, which is consistent with similar home types in the Northeast Tallahassee housing market. It is the bulk of new home sales that has created the appearance of slower depreciation in Bull Run.

Home Sizes In Bull Run

Unlike the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, where we are seeing larger home sizes while prices drop, Bull Run is seeing smaller home sizes while prices drop. This is a sign that homebuyers are willing to pay a premium for new construction in this popular Northeast neighborhood right now, and hopefully when the sell cycle hits in Bull Run, they will be able to weather the storm until all the resales wash through the market.

Homeowners in Bull Run can expect to see a continued stream of new homes being built in order to liquidate the abundance of developed lots. As prices and values continue to decline, this means that land values will be (and currently are) falling fast. It will take many years to work through the available lots, so homeowners will face stiff competition against new home sales for many more years to come.

If you own a home in Bull Run and want to explore your options, just drop me a note and we can meet and review your current value and opportunities you might not yet have considered.

List Of Home Sales In Bull Run

We just started working with a homebuyer who wants to buy a home in Tallahassee for less than $300,000, and our review of the options and opportunities for this buyer provided some great content for a real estate blog. So, if you've ever wondered where to go to buy a $300,000 home in Tallahassee, here's your answer.

First of all, you could start by searching the Tallahassee MLS to see how many homes are listed in this price range. Currently, there are 180 homes for sale in Tallahassee between $250K and $300K, which represents about 1 year's supply of inventory. This means that if nobody puts another home on the market in this price range for the next year, and nobody lowers their asking price to this price range in the next year, then we already have enough inventory to satisfy the current rate of demand for another year. Simply put, that is way too much inventory and thus homebuyers have a great opportunity to find a super deal.

Where Have $300,000 Homes In Tallahassee Been Purchased

The next step in our process is to determine where recent purchases in the $250,000 to $300,000 price range have occurred. If you are going to buy a home in this price range, you want to make sure that you not only explore all opportunities, you also want to ensure that you safely invest your money by purchasing a home in a neighborhood that consistently supports your price point. You wouldn't want to buy a $300,000 home in a neighborhood where mostly $150,000 homes are selling.

Thus far in 2011, Bull Run and Southwood have the most home sales in the $250,000 to $300,000 price range, but Ox Bottom Manor and Killearn Estates have quite a few as well.

Now that we have a good understanding of where people have gone to buy a $300,000 home in Tallahassee, we next want to get a feel for value (what do they get for their money?).

$300,000 Home Sizes In Tallahassee

If we look at the price per square foot of $300,000 homes in Tallahassee, one neighborhood stands out as the best bang for the buck. Betton Hill gives you the most house for the dollar, though the age of the homes are older than the other neighborhoods.

How To Buy A $300,000 Home In Tallahassee

Regardless of the price range that you need to purchase, buying a home in Tallahassee should be a fun, exciting and rewarding process. Behind the scenes, we will ensure that you are kept safe in your real estate investment by ensuring that you have the full information about the real estate market for your price range. If you are thinking about buying a home, just drop me a note and we will schedule an initial interview to get you started on your way to owning a home in Tallahassee!

List of Recent $250K to $300K Home Sales in Tallahassee

Bull Run home prices continue to fall, and today's Tallahassee housing report shows some double-trouble in this popular Northeast Tallahassee neighborhood. Just like the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, home prices and values are declining in Bull Run, but a large amount of the Bull Run home sales are new construction.

This means that people who want to sell an existing home in Bull Run are competing against new construction with falling prices.

Bull Run Home Prices

The average sales price for a Bull Run home this year has been $290,000, which is about 28% lower than prices reached at the peak of the housing market. Currently, the list of Bull Run homes for sale includes properties priced from $270K to $384K. When we look at the graph of sales below, we see that distressed properties are showing up in greater numbers (red bars).

Bull Run Home Values

When we observe a real estate graph of Bull Run Home values, we see a downward trend that began in 2007 when the average price per square foot reached $172, whereas now the average price per square foot for 2011 has been $138. This drop of 20% appears to be better than most Tallahassee neighborhoods, until you extract existing home sales from new construction, where you then find that the average price per square foot has dropped to $131 for a total decline of 25% (still stronger than many Tallahassee neighborhoods).

Bull Run Home Sales - New Versus Resales

Just as we saw in our Southwood Home Sales Report, new construction is significant in Bull Run and that is not good news for existing home owners who need to enter the market. When given a choice between new and used homes, most buyers prefer new in a neighborhood if the prices are the same. This means that home sellers will continue to see falling values as they must use price to compete with the new construction.

In the real estate graph above, existing home sales (resales) are shown in blue, while new home sales are shown in red. Both categories are showing declining values, and it is very likely that this trend will continue for quite some time. Bull Run home sellers are advised to either wait out the market another 5 to 7 years, or sell their homes with an aggressive home selling plan as soon as possible to get the highest value.

If you like to stay up to date with home sales in Bull Run, then you’ll be happy to find this quick market report for Bull Run in Tallahassee. I like to periodically “check in” to see how the top selling neighborhoods in Tallahassee are doing, so today we’ll look at recent home sales in Bull Run and compare them with past sales activity.

Bull Run is one of a few Tallahassee neighborhoods that has seen a continuance of new homes being built. With banks helping builders liquidate their inventories of home sites (lots), the recent sales are weighted with new construction at lowered prices.

Existing home sellers are having a tough time competing with brand new homes that are being built on lots with a drastically lowered land basis. In the simplest sense, home owners in Bull Run need to understand that the land under their homes has fallen in value by about $50K to $80K. I would expect new construction to continue until lot inventories are exhausted, or until existing homes for sale in Bull Run drop their prices below a level at which builders can no longer compete.

This first real estate graph shows that the average home sales price has risen slightly since 2009. This might appear to be good news if we did not know about the new construction going on in Bull Run, but this next real estate graph shows the real picture on what is happening to the actual value of homes for sale in Bull Run.

Note: If you think my recent real estate graphs are easier to view, then “thanks” are owed to reader Charlie Sawyer who gave me some tips on better imaging. Thanks Charlie!

The real estate graph above shows that home values in Bull Run have been falling since they hit their peak in 2007. The inverse results between average values dropping and average prices rising is simply due to the new construction of smaller homes in Bull Run. Builders are able to sell cheaper homes by keeping them smaller than what has been built in the past, and over time, we will see a change in the “average” type of home in Bull Run.

Much like the rest of the Tallahassee housing market, Bull Run is facing an inventory problem. We have too many homes for sale and not enough qualified homebuyers, so it will take quite a bit of time for all of the homes for sale in Bull Run to be sold. Finally, take a look at the “Year Built” column in the table of recent home sales below, and you will get a feel for how much new construction is impacting home sales right now in Bull Run.

Recent Home Sales In Bull Run