About Tallahassee's Ox Bottom Manor

Homeowners in the Ox Bottom neighborhoods are seeing a lower and slower housing market when compared to many of the other NE Tallahassee neighborhoods. This collection of traditionally very popular subdivisions has seen home sales slow faster than the rest of Tallahassee, and home values have dropped at a faster rate as well. Currently, there are 26 homes for sale in Ox Bottom, which includes the Deerwood At Ox Bottom Manor, Ox Bottom, Ox Bottom Gardens, Ox Bottom Manor, and Ox Bottom Reserve.

Home Sales In Ox Bottom Neighborhoods

Home sales in the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods have picked-up slightly over last year's "worst-ever" performance, but they still are well below one-half the rate these communities would expect to see in normal years. Based upon this current rate of sales, the relative supply of homes for sale in the Ox Bottom neighborhoods is right around 12 months of supply.

Home Prices In Ox Bottom Neighborhoods

The average price of a home sold in the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods this year is $287K, which is down 36% from the $450K average home sales price that was recorded in 2006. The real estate graph below shows that home prices are right back where they were in 2003, and the trend is still declining.

Home Values In Ox Bottom Neighborhoods

More importantly, the Ox Bottom neighborhoods have seen home values decline 31% from $169 per square foot in 2006 to just $117 per square foot through November in 2011. The real estate graph below shows that this trend is still on a downward path, so home seller's should expect to get less money for their homes next year than they would have received in 2011. This means that homeowners who are thinking about selling a home in Ox Bottom should either plan to hold onto the home for many more years, or sell it as fast as possible to get the top dollar in a declining real estate market.

Click For Recent Home Sales In The Ox Bottom Neighborhoods

Today’s report includes five subdivisions that comprise the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods, including Ox Bottom Manor, Ox Bottom, Ox Bottom Reserve, Ox Bottom Gardens, and Deerwood at Ox Bottom Manor. These popular Northeast Tallahassee neighborhoods have seen their average home prices decline by 36% since the peak of the market, but home sales have picked up this year when compared to last year.

Map Of Ox Bottom Home Sales

The map below shows where recent home sales occurred in the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods. Just click on any red dot and information regarding the sale will appear.

Note: If you receive the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, you will need to click this link to see the map of recent home sales in Ox Bottom.

Ox Bottom Neighborhoods Home Sales

There have been 22 home sales in the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods through September 9th of this year, which equals the number of home sales which occurred through all of 2010. The current rate of home sales in Ox Bottom might make this the best year for home sellers since 2007, but at far lower prices.

Ox Bottom Home Prices

Home prices continue to decline in the Ox Bottom Neighborhoods. The average sales price in 2011 has been $286K, which is down 36% since 2006.

Ox Bottom Home Values

Home values are "only" down 31% in the Ox Bottom neighborhoods, where 2011 sales have averaged $118 per square foot (compared with $169 per square foot in 2006). Homeowners who are thinking about selling a home in Ox Bottom will be faced with falling prices until inventories return to a balance between supply and demand.

• View complete list of Ox Bottom Neighborhoods home sales
  

Happy Independence Day Tallahassee! Today we received an email request for some real estate advice and it raises the question on what home sellers should do when they know that a move is imminent, and specifically, when you should put your house on the market.

Our reader wrote:

I was wondering if you could answer a question for me via email. Our family is planning to move outside of Tallahassee in the summer of 2012 (give or take a few months). Our home is in [northeast Tallahassee]. We realize that the market is slow right now and see many homes remain on the market for quite some time. We are wondering at what point we should put the house on the market, realizing it will likely sit for a while and realizing that we are hoping to move next summer.

When You Should Put Your House On The Market

This is a great question, as it shows that there is an awareness of market conditions that might not have been so just a few years ago. This home seller plans on moving and wants to know the best time to put her home on the market.

The first thing I would address is the fallacy of “market time” and the fact that it “will likely sit for a while” on the market. As long as a home is within a price range with decent liquidity, an aggressive market plan combined with the right asking price will get the home sold immediately. It no longer takes months to expose a home for sale, so my first advice is to understand that if they hire the right real estate company and follow the advice given, they will sell their home when they want to sell it.

The second point to mention is that they should study the current market conditions and make a decision on the time to sell the home. If they sell the home now, they almost certainly will get a higher price than if they wait a year. The following real estate graph shows home sales and home value trends in Northeast Tallahassee.

The blue lines in the graph show the number of homes sold in Northeast Tallahassee each month, while the red diamonds show the average home value each month. The red line is a six month trend of home values, and we can see that values are continuing to decline.

So, using some rough math, home values are down about 5% since this same time last year, and if the current trend continues. a Northeast Tallahassee home (using an estimated size of 2,500 square feet) would drop another $12,000 to $18,000) over the next year.

If the home owner sells now, this money could be saved, but this would require an additional move to a rental property for the remainder of the year. This move will have costs involved as well, but would be far less than the money that will be lost due to depreciation.

Ultimately, the answer lies in the balance between convenience and cost. My recommendation for this reader is to sit down with a trusted Tallahassee real estate broker who can do an in-depth study of the market conditions in her specific Northeast Tallahassee neighborhood and help her review all of the options available. Even if the plan will be to move in a year, there are too many benefits of putting the plan together now to just push this off for another 6 to 12 months.

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The average price of a home in the Ox Bottom communities has dropped 43% since the peak of the market in 2007, and the abundant supply of homes for sale in this popular northeast Tallahassee neighborhood means that pricing pressures will continue. Today’s report includes five subdivisions that all share the Ox Bottom name, including Ox Bottom Manor, Ox Bottom, Ox Bottom Reserve, Ox Bottom Gardens, and Deerwood at Ox Bottom Manor.

The first real estate graph shows a nine-year run of declining home sales in Ox Bottom, and the Tallahassee MLS currently lists 24 homes for sale with a median price of $355K and an average time on the market of nearly 4 months.

Recent sales prices show such a drastic drop because many buyers are choosing the less expensive homes in Ox Bottom Gardens, where the highest recent price was less than $220K. The highest sales price this year in the Ox Bottom neighborhoods was $330K, and that was a home CENTURY 21 First Realty sold on Sinkola Drive in January. If you need to sell a home in Ox Bottom, take a look at our internet marketing plan to sell a home, it has helped many sellers succeed in a market that is showing a 60% failure rate for people trying to sell a home.

When we look at real estate values in Ox Bottom, we see a “slightly below market” drop of 32% since the peak of the market in 2006, and a trend that appears to be continuing downward. This means that there are going to be some great opportunities to be found in Ox Bottom for many years to come, and by looking at the list of homes for sale in Ox Bottom, some of those can be found today.

View Recent Home Sales In The Ox Bottom Neighborhoods

In statistics, regression toward the mean refers to the phenomenon that a variable that is extreme on its first measurement will tend to be closer to the centre of the distribution on a later measurement. Sounds a bit geeky huh? Let's see if we can use it in a real-world scenario to forecast home values in a neighborhood.

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Ox Bottom home owners might have reason to be concerned with a mathematical concept known as regression toward the mean. You see, I have been playing around with a few ideas recently when trying to determine how far we should expect home prices in Tallahassee to fall, and a long-time friend reminded me the concept that I was investigating is known as “reversion or regression toward the mean.”

This concept is defined on Wikipedia:

In statistics, regression toward the mean refers to the phenomenon that a variable that is extreme on its first measurement will tend to be closer to the centre of the distribution on a later measurement.

In simpler terms, when we see extreme results in home values, whether very high or very low, we should expect them to move towards the anticipated levels that historically we would expect. Due to inflation and growth in the Tallahassee real estate market, our level of real estate appreciation has been highly predictable in the past.

Ox Bottom Home Values

When we look at historical home values in the Ox Bottom neighborhoods, we see values nearly double between 2003 and 2007. During this time, there was not any rational reason for home values to skyrocket the way that they did, thus we expect market influences to bring about a correction that will move prices back towards our expected levels.

The real estate graph above should be quite disconcerting to Ox Bottom homeowners who might need to sell their home in the next few years. If one gives any merit to the concept of regression toward the mean, than we can expect a recovery that might take 8 or more years to correct. The next graph shows that Ox Bottom home values might actually be currently at 2018 prices! And just how does this compare to homes for sale now in Ox Bottom?

Calling All Mathematicians

I would love to receive feedback from everybody who fancies themselves somewhat competent in mathematics. What are your thoughts on regression toward the mean (used in housing values) and what do you think about home values in Ox Bottom?

One point that should be understood is that we’ve used the 1990s to establish the linear mean of home values, when in fact a longer period of time could prove that the 1990s were a “low point” on the line, thus suggesting our mean line could be somewhat higher. Nevertheless, homeowners in Ox Bottom could be in for a long recovery.

click to view Recent Existing Ox Bottom Home Sales