Covington, GA

You've probably heard the theory that everyone in the world is separated from everyone else by only six degrees. That is to say, considering all the people you know and have come in contact with, all the people they know and have come in contact with, etc. to the sixth degree, you indirectly know or have come in contact with everyone living in the world today. If you think about that theory, it can also explain the state of our economy here in Covington and, indeed, the world.

I received a call this week from a friend who's an architect and residential builder. He is helping Newton County officials put together an application to receive some of the federal "bail-out" funds to help our local housing industry. He asked if I could get some statistics for him on our local housing market to help support information in the county's application.

What I realized in putting together those statistics is how closely related the housing market in Covington is to the state of our local economy and the economic woes around the globe.

New home sales in Newton County dropped from 1226 in 2003 to only 329 in 2008. In 2003, new homes were selling in an average time of 159 days for an average price of 101.1% of the asking price. In 2008, it took, on average, 198 days to sell a new home, and then at only 93.4% of the asking price. The housing bubble had burst, and home builders in Covington and Newton County effectively stopped building new homes. (There are currently only 329 new homes on the market in Newton County, but a 16.2-month supply of resales and foreclosed homes.)

Economists report that the housing market is a leading indicator of the state of our economy. So, what happens when builders can't sell their new homes and stop building? The six degrees of separation theory takes over.

When builders aren't building, they don't need developers, banks, material suppliers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, landscapers, brick layers, concrete workers, or house cleaners.

Developers, banks, material suppliers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, landscapers, brick layers and concrete workers don't need land, new offices, office supplies, advertising, lumber, nails, tools, wiring, light fixtures, plumbing fixtures, drywall, sod, plants, pipe, brick, concrete, or new trucks.

Banks foreclose on the builders' inventory and tighten credit on everyone because they don't have money to make new loans. (There were 779 foreclosures in Newton County in 2008.)

Municipalities loose revenue from taxes and utilities, putting law enforcement, firemen and sanitation workers out of work.

There's no need for manufacturers' products so they don't need as many factory workers. Nor do they need freight carriers' trucks, trains, ships, and airplanes to deliver their goods.

Builders, developers, bankers, wholesalers, realtors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall hangers, carpenters, electricians, landscapers, brick layers, concrete workers, house cleaners, cops, firemen, sanitation workers, factory workers, and truckers are unemployed. They don't have the money to shop at the malls, buy new cars or eat out. Retail workers and restaurant workers become unemployed. Unemployment rises to 7.5% (in Georgia).

A simplistic explanation? Probably...

Realistic? Yea, it's happened...

So, did housing market problems in Covington and Newton County cause all our economic woes?

No! But when the same thing happens in Covington and Atlanta, and Orlando, and Hillsdale, New Jersey, and Spokane, and Denver, and Walnut Creek, California all at the same time, there's only six degrees of separation between us, a U.S. recession, and a global economic crisis.

"Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass... It's about learning to dance in the Rain"

Finally! After prolonged, consistent "lobbying" efforts by a small group of parents and citizens concerned with the education of their children and grandchildren in Covington and Newton County, the county Board of Education is establishing two theme schools for next school year. Finally, our school system is moving out of the educational Dark Ages.

An elementary theme school will open next year at Fairview Elementary. Clements Middle School is being turned into a theme school for middle school students. Meetings are scheduled all during the month of January to provide more information to the public on the schools and their curriculums.

According to "The Covington News," the elementary theme school programs will "...integrate research-centered/hands-on projects and critical thinking skills, especially in math and science, and increased reading assignments at home and during the summer break." Middle school students will additionally be offered "a comprehensive, interdisciplinary educational program" based on those elementary skills.

Here's the most important part... parents of students attending the theme schools must get involved! That's not just a platitude, but a requirement. That's the only way the schools will be successful.

Look at the best schools in the County today. It's easy to do. You can count them on the fingers of one hand. They're the schools where the teachers are happy because they can teach rather than discipline. They're the schools with parents active in PTO, booster clubs, and fund raisers. The ones where parents show up for sporting events, lunch with their kids, parent-teacher conferences, and special school meetings. They're the ones where parents make their kids do their homework, are involved in their lives, and concerned about the quality of their education and their future.

Congratulations Newton County Board of Education for finally taking the initiative. We may be just now "rushing boldly into the 20^th century." But at least we're rushing toward something noteworthy... a quality education for the future leaders of our country.

With the current state of the economy in the U.S., fueled for the past several years by the housing market, it's probably no big surprise that 2008 was not a stellar year in real estate in Covington and Newton County.

Here's how the year ended in Newton County, according to statistics drawn from the Georgia Multiple Listing Service (GAMLS).

A total of 1355 single family homes sold in Newton County during 2008, a decrease of almost 400 from those sold in 2007.

Total Sales volume in December 2008 was almost $8 million less than in January. And the average sales price during that period dropped by over $43,000 per home, on average.

New homes were hardest hit with only 328 new homes selling during 2008. It took an average of 6.5 months to sell each of those new homes, and there's still a 14.3 month supply of newly constructed homes on the market in the county.

There were 779 single family property foreclosures during the year. But, they were not just low-cost and starter homes. These foreclosures can be found at virtually every price point and in most neighborhoods county wide.

Will 2009 be a better year in the housing market? With unemployment in metro-Atlanta standing at 7% and expected to rise during 2009, it's hard to say. But housing is the key to economic recovery in this area overall, and unemployment usually lags the start of recovery. So watch the housing market this year to see how our economy is doing.

The good news in all of this is that it's still a great time to buy a home, especially if you're in a position of not having to sell before you buy. There is ample mortgage money available for new loans for those with good credit at some of the lowest interest rates in years. And there are plenty of homes on the market for you to choose from - 1862 active single family home listings in Newton County today - at better prices than you're likely to find for years to come.

If you have a home to sell, give it a try. It costs you nothing until the home is sold, so you have nothing to loose. And if you sell for less than you'd like, be assured that you'll be buying for a lot less than you would expect also!

If you have a home to sell, contact us, "Your Traditional Neighborhood Specialists," by either phone, email or text message. We'll be glad to advise you on things you can do sell your home faster in this market.

And if you're looking for a new home, we have access to hundreds of new, bank-owned and foreclosed properties throughout Covington, Newton and the surrounding counties. Call or text 770-337-5262 or 404-925-3676, or email billblair@bellsouth.net. We'll make it work for you!

I grew up in the South eating home-cooked Southern food. My Mom was a great cook, as is my wife. But Mom always cooked in ways that we've come to realize weren't so good for you. Her biscuits were made with lard. Chicken, or pork chops or steak was fried. Most veggies were cooked with fat back. And the cornbread was always slathered with butter. The result... yummy food, bouts with being overweight, and cholesterol pills.

Now, I'm not sure they cook like Mom did, but you can still get that great Southern home-style food at Smiley's in Porterdale.

No white tablecloths, just wooden tables and straight-backed chairs. But the staff is friendly, the service is great, and the food will make you slap yo' mama!

Everything is served buffet-style after the waitress brings your sweet tea. This past Sunday at lunch, the buffet featured fried chicken, roast beef, baked ham, biscuits, cornbread, salad bar and veggies, including green beans, butter beans cream corn, fried okra, mashed potatoes with two kinds of gravy, cornbread dressing, boiled cabbage, mac and cheese, sweet potatoes, and probably a few others I've forgotten.

Yellow cake with chocolate icing and, as always, fresh banana pudding (made with real custard - no instant vanilla pudding here!) rounded out your meal - and you. And everything tasted just as good (well 99%) as Mom used to make.

Smiley's is only open on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. But it's worth the wait and the drive to Porterdale. Just don't eat too much during the week and be sure to wear your expandable waist pants!

If you want some great Southern cooking like your Mom used to make, Smiley's is still here and still serving it up! I give it two big thumbs up!

I'm fortunate enough to have a friend who is also a fine poet. He writes verse all during the year. But every year around this season, there's always something special.

His latest is "A Christmas Hope." This was published in our church program this past Sunday, but deserves to be read by more than just our Presbyterian friends. It evokes vivid images of Christmas past, and inspires belief in the future. It's what this special season is all about. I think you'll enjoy it. It's printed here with permission.

A Christmas Hope

by Reed Blakeney

It's strange to see you now, old friend
I hardly knew your face
There was a time when we would spend
Long hours at your place

Do you remember Christmas Eve
In nineteen fourty-four?
That's when old Jessie had to leave
And go away to war

But you and I were under age
Not old enough to fight
We acted on the high school stage
And knew we'd be all right

For hope was in our corner when
our boys were true and strong
This war would end all evil, then
The nations would get along

Hope was high as battles won
Created much speculation
The war would end and a soldier son
Would get an earned vacation

It's strange the way it all worked out
Since that Christmas long ago
We wonder what it's all about
But we still have much to show

For yes, we've taught Democracy
To nations across the world
We wanted people to be free
We marched with flag unfurled

What do you think, old friend of mine -
This Christmas, two thousand and eight?
I'll treat you to a glass of wine
And set the record straight

It's love that makes the world go 'round
It's hate that turns it sour
There's still much joy to be found
In every Christmas hour

Let's drink a toast to you and me
And good friends we remember
We've lived a long time, don't you see
And hope lives each December