Jefferson, GA

Anyone remotely interested in the real estate market has undoubtedtly heard that we've been on a bit of a roll lately.

Well, this month, the trend continues...Pending home sales index (calculated on contracts signed in July) rose another 3.2% this month. As I have said before, we're not out of the woods just yet. As the expression goes, "One month does not a trend make," but we have definitely seen a consistent trend in the market since early 2009.

For some perspective...

- Our current index is 12.0% higher than the level experienced last July

- The index has not been this high since June of 2007
(which is the month prior to activity really starting to drop off a few years ago)

"How are things locally?" you may ask. Quite well...
Here are the statistics on the Pending Home Sales Index by region:

- The Northeast declined 3.0% but is 4.7% higher than July 2008

- The Midwest slipped 2.0% but is 8.1% above a year ago.

- The South rose 3.1% and is 12.0% above July 2008.

- The West jumped 12.1% and is 20.0% above a year ago.

If you've been waiting to buy towards the end of the year in order to take advantage of the tax credits that expire at the end of November, (NAR estimates that b/t 1.8 - 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit - resulting in around 350,000 additional sales that would not have occurred w/out the credit), you better get going...

As reported by RISMEDIA, "Buyers have little time to act because they must complete the transaction by November 30, 2009 to qualify for the credit. Unless extended, contracts signed but not completed by that date will not be eligible- it is taking approximately two months to complete home sales in the current market."

For the full article by RISMEDIA, click here

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First, let me be clear...everything is relative in this market.

Good news isn't exactly what it used to be, but considering the L O N G, steady decline in home prices over the last 3 years, any mention of news about an increase in home prices is music to the ears of most homeowners/sellers.

Again, it's important to note that home prices are still in decline when compared to last year, but the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (the leading measure of home prices in the United States), actually reported that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the second quarter of 2009.

There's still a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008, but last quarter's decline was over 19%.

As you know if you've read my previous blogs or watched the news lately, home sales have increased each month for the last 5 months. Are we at or near the bottom? Maybe. Maybe Not. However, there's no denying that this is a good sign. If this continues for a few months, and the economy continues to steadily improve as it appears to be doing, there's no question that it will be a very positive step in the direction of recovery...

Click below to read the full artice...

Here are some recent articles of interest (click on the artice title to see the full story):

Existing home sales rise for fourth straight month

5 Months in a Row...Pending Home Sales Rise Again

Treasurys down after home sales top forecasts - Bernanke says economy leveling out

Home sales rise as housing market tries a comeback

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People ask me all the time...
How's the market? Are people buying? Can someone actually sell their home in this market?

First, my 2 cents worth...There have definitely been some encouraging signs of late and this summer has been a busy time, but we're still a long ways from a "healthy market." Are we "at the bottom?" That is the million dollar question. Many economists and prognosticators have boldly claimed that the worst is behind us and real estate is "on the way back up." My personal opinion - no. I think we're certainly at or near the bottom, but I believe the bottom will be around for a while. I think prices will continue to drop to some degree, although I certainly believe they will drop much less rapidly than they have over the last 6/12/18 months.

Here's the main difference I've witnessed between this winter and this summer...
This winter, a home that was listed in decent condition at a rock-bottom price may still sit and sit and sit on the market as few people were actually signing on the bottom line and purchasing homes. This summer, a similar home is under contract in 15 days or less (often with multiple offers). Does this mean there's huge demand/competition for decent homes? Not necessarily. However, if the home is well-priced, in good condition, and in a good location, then yes, these homes are in high demand.

It's a beauty competition out there. Those with the looks, talent and charisma get the prize; everyone else falls by the wayside. Do we remember the names of the 1^st runner-ups in the Miss America contests or the teams that lost the Superbowl/NBA Finals/World Series? Probably not. Will a 2^nd tier home "win the prize" and receive offers (offers worth consideration, anyway) in our market? Probably not. Buyers have gotten very, very, very picky (as well they should). If they find a home with so much as a beauty mark (unless the home is priced 20% or 30%...or more...below market value), they're likely looking elsewhere. Why wouldn't they?

The biggest problem I see with this...the average seller just doesn't understand that selling their home in today's market requires nothing less than a minor miracle. Most sellers just can't (or don't want to) understand that their competition isn't their neighbor down the street who "doesn't have as nice a yard" or "doesn't have a half-bath on the main level." Their true competition is the 100 foreclosures/short sales/corporate-owned properties within a 5-mile radius that are 30% cheaper.

Secondly, in addition to my personal experience/opinion, as you who read my blog already know, I like to show you the cold, hard facts and let you make your own judgments. June and July have actually been very good months relative to the market of late. This is certainly encouraging, but we've still got a ways to go...

OK - on to the facts...

The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose in June for the fifth straight month in the US. This was the 5^th consecutive month that pending home sales rose. A rise in five consecutive months has not happened in 6 years (July 2003). The results were far better than analysts expected.

Also, for the first time in five years, home re-sales have risen for three months in a row, increasing almost 4 percent in June. "The housing market is healing and the patient is getting healthier at an accelerating pace," said economist Joel L. Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc.

Here in the South, we have experienced the biggest increase. The pending home sales index jumped 7.1% to 100.7 in the South (compared to only 2.9% to 100.4 in the West, 0.4% to 81.2 in the Northeast, and 0.8% to 89.9 in the Midwest).

click here to see the entire article

Sales of new homes also posted their largest monthly gain in nearly eight years in June. The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes rose 11% in June (economists only expected a 3% increase).

click here to see the entire article

Remember, the 1^st time homeowner tax credits (and other credits) will be expiring soon. Click below for a current run-down of the available credits...

And finally, a word of caution regarding the tax credits. If you claim eligibility, you better make sure you're on the up-and-up (because the IRS is going to do their part to make sure you are)...

see the article here

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