Oahu Real Estate Report
June 2011
Quick Summary
Oahu Single Family Homes Sales: down 13% from last year; down 1% from last month.
Oahu Condos Sales: down 9% from last year, up 8% from last month.
Oahu SFH Escrows: up 7% from last year; up 17% from last month.
Oahu Condos Escrows: up 12% from last year; down 16% from last month.
Oahu SFH Median Selling Price: down 7% from last year; down 5% from last month.
Oahu Condos MSP: down 2% from last year; up 4% from last month.
Oahu SFH Months on Hand: 5.0, Seller's Market
Oahu Condos Months on Hand: 6.1, Neutral to Seller's Market
Oahu Upscale Sales: down 29% from last year, down 27% from last month.
Oahu Upscale Escrows: up 24% from last year, up 62% from last month
Oahu Upscale Price/Square Foot: down 16% from last year, down 16% from last month.
Oahu Total Market:
The data provided in the Oahu Upscale Real Estate Report differs from that provided by the
Honolulu Board of Realtors and reported in the press because the Board includes every
property listed in the Honolulu MLS system, including properties on the other islands. We
believe that it is more accurate to look only at Oahu properties, and so we removed all non-
Oahu properties from our data.
Sold Volume
231 Single Family Homes (SFH) on Oahu were sold in June, down 13% from last year and
down 1% from May. 341 Condos were sold in June, down 9% from last year and up 8% from
May. At this time last year, people were rushing to close on purchases to qualify for the limited
time tax credit.
Escrow Volume
278 new Escrows were opened for SFH in June 2011, up 7% from last year and up 17% from
May. 302 new Escrows were opened for Condos, up 12% from last year and down 16% from
May. Since escrows lead sales by about 60 days, we should see strong sales comparisons in
August.
Months' Inventory on Hand
Months' Inventory On Hand is the best indicator of market conditions, as it combines current
active inventory levels with future sales (based on current escrows). At the end of June 2011,
there were 5.0 months' of inventory of SFH, down 10% from last year and down 15% from the
end of May. Condos have 6.1 months' inventory on hand, down 16% from last year and up 21%
from May. Please see the data table for the breakdown by region, as it varies considerably
throughout Oahu. High or rising Months' On Hand suggest greater bargaining power for buyers;
while low levels should result in stable to rising prices. 5 to 7 Months On Hand is generally
considered to be equilibrium levels. The low recent Months On Hand has created tight market
conditions and a bit of the feeling of a "seller's market". The graph later in the report makes it
easy to see the strong relationship between pricing and Months On Hand.
Median Selling Price
Median Selling Price (MSP) of properties sold is the most commonly used measure for price
comparisons but can be misleading, especially when applied to small market segments, as it
often represents a changing mix of sales rather than movements in price. The Median Selling
Price for June 2011 SFH was $550,000 down 7% from last year and down 5% from last month.
A small but consistent downtrend in median price is now visible in SFH, starting in fall 2010. For
Condos, the Median Selling Price for June was $300,000, down 2% from last year and up 4%
from last month. Once again, please see the data tables later on in the report to see the
variation by region.
Average Price per Square Foot
Average price per square foot ($PSF) is an alternative measure of price comparison, which is
less likely to be affected by the mix of specific properties sold in any given month. The June
2011 $PSF for SFH sold on Oahu was $375, down 4% from last year and down 9% from May.
For Condos sold in June 2011, the $PSF was $428 up 6% from last year and up 6% from May.
The SFH $ PSF is close to the lows reached in 2009. See the data tables for regional details.
Report produced by Elite Pacific Properties, Hawaii's Upscale Real Estate Experts.
ows in June 2011, up 24% from
last year and up 62% from May. If all of these close, it will be one of the strongest Upscale sales
months since 2007. In addition, 5 condos listed for over $1 Million opened new escrows in
June.
National Overview
Existing Home Resale Volume
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), May's national existing home resale
seasonally adjusted volume was down 15% from last year and down 3.80% from April 2011.
The sales comparison to last year is misleading because tax credit-motivated purchasing was a
very large factor nationally last year.
Existing Home Resale Median Price
NAR reported that May's national existing home resale median price was $166,500, down
4.64% from last year and up 1.71% from April 2011.
Existing Home Inventory
NAR reported that May's month-end inventory of resale homes for sale was 3.72 million homes,
which was down 3.9% from April 2011 and down 4.4% from last year.
Existing Home Months' On Hand
NAR reported that at the end of May, there were 9.3 months of resale inventory for sale based
on May's sales and inventory, up from 9.2 months in April 2011.
Existing Home Pending Sales
NAR's Pending Sales Index for May 2011 (based on contracts signed in May) was 88.8, up
13.4% from last year and up 8.2 % from April 2011. This is an unusually strong reading.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Same-Home Price Index (conforming loans only)
Because this index is taken only from Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and
the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) data, it includes only homes sold
whose mortgages were conforming (among other things, under $729,750 for most of the US).
U.S. home prices rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis for April, according to the Federal
Housing Finance Agency's monthly House Price Index. Over the past year, seasonally adjusted
prices fell 5.7 percent.
S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Metro Area Home Price Index (all resale's)
Because this index includes all same-home sales from the 20 largest metropolitan areas in the
US, it is generally considered to be the most accurate measurement of pricing. However, some
observers believe it is distorted because it includes only sales from these large cities, which
include some of the more volatile markets in the country, and excludes typically more static
smaller markets. April's 2011 Same-Home resale prices were down 3.96% from last year and
up 0.5% from March 2011.
Foreclosure Filings
RealtyTrac reports that foreclosure filings (including default notices, auction sale notices, and
bank repossessions) in May's were reported on 214,927 properties, down 33.44% from last year
and down 1.98% from the previous month.
New Home Sales
The Census Bureau reports that new homes sold in May were at an annualized pace of
319,000, up 15.4% from last year and down 3.23% from the revised April ‘11 rates.
New Home Inventory
The Census Bureau reports that the estimate of new homes for sale at the end of May was
166,000. This represents 6.2 months of sales at the current sales pace.
New Home Sale Median Prices
The Census Bureau reports that the median selling price for newly built homes sold in May 2011
was $222,600 down 3.43% from last year and up 2.58% from the prior month.
New Housing Starts
The Census Bureau reports that May 2011 privately owned residential housing starts were at a
seasonally adjusted rate of 560,000, down 3.45% from last year and up 3.5% from the revised
April 2011 estimate of 541,000. Analysts expect new residential construction to remain at very
low levels for an extended period of time as new homes have difficulty competing against
bargain-priced foreclosures. While a negative for the economy, the low levels of new housing
starts are a positive for the prices of existing housing.
New Housing Permits
The Census Bureau reports that May 2011 privately owned building permits were at an annual
pace of 612,000 units, up 5.2% from last year, and up 8.7% from the revised April 2011 rate of
563,000. Permits are a leading indicator of Housing Starts.
National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index
This index combines present sales, builders' expectations of the next six months' sales, and
current traffic of prospective buyers. The June'11 index is 13.
Report produced by Elite Pacific Properties, Hawaii's Upscale Real Estate Experts.
Learn more at www.elitepacific.com
