About Boise's North End Boise

Mortgage markets improved last week during a snow- and holiday-thinned series of sessions on Wall Street. Mortgage bonds improved on year-end profit-taking, mostly, leading conforming mortgage rates in Idaho lower.

Last week marked the first calendar week in which mortgage rates dropped since early-November, a pleasing development for rate shoppers and home buyers.Falling rates means lower monthly mortgage payments.

But don't expect for rates to improve again this week, however. Last week's gains were the result of extremely low trading volume and a close-out of 2010 mortgage bond positions. With markets re-opened for 2011, and Wall Street back at full volume, mortgage rates may resume rising.

There will be a lot of data and information on which for mortgage bonds to trade, too.

The week starts with a growth report from the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply Management's monthly report has shown improvement over 16 straight months, and Monday's report is expected to show the same. Because manufacturing is key in U.S. economy, a stronger-than-expected value could send stock markets higher, and mortgage rates, too.

Then, Tuesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its December meeting. There won't be policy changes transcribed in the minutes, but Wall Street will scrutinize its pages for clues on the economy. A bullish bias from the Fed will push rates higher. A bearish bias will drag rates lower.

And lastly, Friday, the government will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report for December. This is a major market-mover because of how closely jobs are tied to the economy overall. Plus, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks Friday -- another risk to mortgage rates.

The gravity of this week's economic releases and speeches should make shopping for a mortgage difficult. Stay in close touch with your loan officer about mortgage rates and how they're moving. And if you see a rate you like, lock it.

There's no promise rates will ever go lower.

Like most housing data in November, the most recent New Home Sales report showed sales volume increasing last month, and home supplies falling. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, sales of new, single-family homes increased to 290,000 in November on an annual basis, a figure equal to the New Home Sales 6-month rolling average, and a 6 percent improvement from October.

At the current pace of sales, the national supply of new homes for sale will be exhausted in 8.2 months -- a strong 0.6-month improvement from October.

This data is consistent with the most recent Existing Home Sales report. It showed sales volume rising 6 percent, too, and a similarly-strong inventory drop.

For the housing market in Idaho, it's another step in the right direction. Since May's post-tax credit plunge, home prices have stabilized and a foundation for growth has been built. Home builder confidence data highlights this point.

Also interesting in the November New Home Sales report is the volume breakdown by price point. Less expensive homes powered the market:

• Homes under $200,000 : 47 percent of all sales
• Homes between $200,000-$299,999 : 29 percent of all sales
• Homes between $300,000-$399,999 : 14 percent of all sales

Luxury homes accounted for less than 2 percent of sales last month suggesting that builders count first-time and move-up buyers as their core market.

As 2010 comes to a close, housing looks poised for a rebound. Sales in all categories are improving, relative to 6 months ago, and the economy is improving. In conjunction with rising mortgage rates, the best time to buy a new home may be now.

The National Association of Realtors® released the Existing-home sales figures for September, and the market is up 10% over last month. I'd say not a bad month for housing and the recovery! We certainly have a ways to go yet, but it sure is nice to keep getting positive market data.

According to today's NAR Press Release, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market is in the early stages of recovery. "A housing recovery is taking place but will be choppy at times depending on the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium. But the overall direction should be a gradual rising trend in home sales with buyers responding to historically low mortgage interest rates and very favorable affordability conditions."

Home affordability is the important topic here. Home prices are about 22% below where they were in 2005, and mortgaged rates are 1.5-2% lower. The median monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased today is several hundred dollars less than in 2005 - and in many cases, less than what new home buyers are currently paying for rent.

Things are looking UP!

One of the widely followed indicators for U.S. construction activity rose last month to its highest level since January 2008. This report suggests that the recovery in the construction sector may have momentum, according to an architect's trade group.

The September Architectures Billings Index was up 2.2 points to 50.4 - marking the fourth consecutive month of increases, the American Institute of Architects said.

The score reflects a rise in demand for design services, as any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.

October 18, 2010 - Mortgage markets worsened last week in back-and-forth trading, pushing conforming mortgage rates higher on the week. Despite the uptick, however, Freddie Mac reports that rates in Idaho still managed to make new, all-time lows for the third week in a row. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now down 1.02% since April 2010.

The United States is experiencing a Refi Boom. As compared to 6 months ago, a new, $200,000 home loan costs $124 less per month in principal + interest. This week, monthly payments may fall some more. It all depends on data.

Early in the week, housing data takes center stage. The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index this morning, and, Tuesday, the government prints September's Housing Starts figures. Both reports figure to influence the bond market.

Strong readings should lead mortgage rates higher; weak ones should lead them lower. Economists expect weakness. That said, the biggest story of the week - and the one with the best chance of changing rates - could stem from the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, have observed the recent U.S. economy and have openly discussed the use of "non-conventional means" to spur it forward. As the rhetoric increases, it's widely believed that the Fed will act soon, and that the central bank's plan will include new commitments to U.S. Treasury debt, and, possibly, to mortgage-backed bonds.

Speculation of the Fed's next move has sparked mortgage bond demand which, in turn, has helped drive down mortgage rates. An official Fed announcement could push rates lower still.

For now, though, mortgage rates are as low as they've been in history. Rate shoppers have two choices. (1) Lock in a today's low rates, or (2) Wait and hope that rates fall further. Ultimately, rates may fall, but once they start rising, they'll likely rise quickly.

It's a gamble you may not wish to take.