Denham Springs & Walker Market Comparison Study From Periods 6/1/2007-12/31/2007 to 1/1/2008-8/21/2008
8/21/2008 - Time To Do Some Number Crunching.
By Bill Cobb - Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group
Article with Graphs can also be viewed @ http://denhamspringsappraisers.com/
Last Thursday, The Advocate Newspaper published an article from the National Association of Realtors that said the Baton Rouge metropolitan area's 2nd quarter median home price fell to $164,000 from $174,700 a year ago. However, the local Realtors' leadership said on Friday its data showed the figure increased to $176,000. On Saturday, the NAR issued a correction concurring with GBRAR. Median price is the NAR's barometer being used - Median means that half the homes sold were below that amount and half were above that amount. Yes, our market is slower, but our median home price has not dipped. A comparison between EBRP in July 2004 shows 140 sales versus only 94 sales for July 2008. So, yes, we are now in a slower market, but home sales are steady and inspire confidence in our local markets.
Saturday 8/16/08, The Advocate published what the Livingston Parish Board of Realtors see as a possible error, that Livingston Parish homes sales dropped a steep 39 percent when comparing totals from July 2007 and July 2008.
Sunday 8/17/08, WAFB.com published an article about 45 homes priced over 1 million dollars on the market in Greater Baton Rouge. The article stated that Country Club of Louisiana sales were down 50% from 1 year ago. They also interviewed an influential local developer who said Baton Rouge's darkest days would arrive in 12 to 18 months from now and that would be the time to buy. Will Baton Rouge really see its darkest days in 12 to 18 months? ...........only time will tell.
Saturday 8/23/08, The Advocate published, " Livingston permits drop 74 percent - The number of permits issued to build new homes dropped almost 75 percent in the past 18 months, according to data from Livingston Parish government".
After these 4 recent articles, I began to wonder if the local media outlets were trying to promote hysteria in our local market just as the national media is stirring the national hysteria over the housing picture - with a large, irresponsible spoon in some cases. Do we now have a negative, speculative press in our local area? Is the real estate market in Western Livingston Parish really that bad - as compared to the national housing market? As a local home appraiser with these questions swirling in my mind, I picked up my HP12C and went to work doing some serious number crunching.
The following reveals my discoveries:
Search Parameters Defined. Time periods used are from 6/1/07 to 12/31/2007 and 01/01/2008 to 8/21/08 because The Advocate/NAR article used July 07 and because around 8/2007 is when the mortgage meltdown really began to happen. It's important to capture the market picture after the mortgage meltdown began. To go back to 1/1/07 to 12/31/07 would use a period of time when the market was higher (post Katrina) and the mortgage meltdown wasn't really a factor for 7 of those 12 months of that period of time. Some subdivisions were not added to this study, such as Plantation Estates, because they didn't have enough sales between these 2 periods of time to draw a reliable conclusion. Also, any potential REO sales were excluded from this study.
Denham Springs 70706 - generally the area above Lockhart Road and north into Watson. A representative sample of Ten (10) residential subdivisions were studied comparing average sold price, median sold price and average sold price per sq. ft.. Remember - the NAR's barometer for market direction is "Median" sales price. The results of this study showed Denham Springs 70706's median sales price increased +$9,903, average sales price increased +$4,562 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by only -$0.54 cents.
Denham Springs 70726 - generally the area below Lockhart Road. A representative sample of Twelve (12) residential subdivisions was studied. The results of this study showed Denham Springs 70726's median sales price increased +$3,194, average sales price increased +$576 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by -$2.60.
Walker 70785. Walker has experienced the most decline - albeit very modest. A representative sample of Seven (7) residential subdivisions was studied. The results of this study showed Walker's median sales prices decreased only -$193, average sales price decreased -$1,181 and the average sold price per sq. ft. decreased by -$1.23 cents. It would be reasonable to say that the Walker market is holding fairly steady and shows only a minor dip in home values.
In light of some of the bleak pictures read concerning those pockets of doom in the national housing market (California, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Arizona) , it's appropriate to conclude that Greater Baton Rouge and in Livingston Parish are a blessed population . In some cases, we have increased home values and in others, we are remaining steady.
NOTE: Total Change is derived by dividing the total by the # of subdivisions.
70706
|
Subdiv.
Name
|
6/07-12/07 Average
Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07
Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
2008 Average
Sale Price
|
2008 Median
Sales Price
|
2008 Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
Average
Sales Price Change
|
Median Sales Price
Change
|
Average Sq.
Ft. Change
|
|
Acadiana Pl
|
162,652
|
160,000
|
113.14
|
163,471
|
160,000
|
111.38
|
+819
|
0
|
-$1.76
|
|
Beau Chen
|
135,160
|
133,400
|
104.47
|
130,850
|
131,500
|
109.41
|
-4,310
|
-$1,900
|
+4.94
|
|
Crestwood
|
136,603
|
136,500
|
110.53
|
137,717
|
136,250
|
110.25
|
+1,114
|
-250
|
-0.28
|
|
EagleRidge
|
139,160
|
138,000
|
109.76
|
141,975
|
141,400
|
111.02
|
+2,815
|
+3,400
|
+1.26
|
|
Easterly Lk
|
245,280
|
224,900
|
114.27
|
263,780
|
282000
|
110.03
|
+18,420
|
+57,100
|
-$4.24
|
|
Fountnbleau
|
179,033
|
176,950
|
105.83
|
177,640
|
179,400
|
102.20
|
-1,393
|
+2,450
|
-3.63
|
|
Glenwd Est
|
146,870
|
143,000
|
110.22
|
150,956
|
150,000
|
110.39
|
+4,086
|
+7,000
|
+0.17
|
|
Liv Ok Land
|
212,862
|
219,900
|
114.63
|
205,717
|
211,750
|
107.15
|
-7,145
|
-8,150
|
-7.48
|
|
Oak Hills
|
218,975
|
212,500
|
113.82
|
248,000
|
248000
|
113.80
|
+29,025
|
+35,500
|
-0.02
|
|
Otts Cove
|
145,362
|
144,311
|
104.46
|
147,550
|
148,200
|
106.57
|
+2,188
|
+3,889
|
+2.11
|
|
Total Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+$4,562
|
+$9,903
|
-$0.54
|
70726
|
Subdiv.
Name
|
6/07-12/07 Average
Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07
Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
2008 Average
Sale Price
|
2008 Median
Sales Price
|
2008 Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
Average
Sales Price Change
|
Median Sales Price
Change
|
Average Sq.
Ft. Change
|
|
Aud. Trace
|
196,633
|
200,000
|
113.09
|
195,700
|
195,750
|
112.87
|
-933
|
-4,250
|
-0.22
|
|
Carter Hills
|
158,712
|
163,000
|
111.32
|
157,750
|
157,750
|
109.62
|
-962
|
-5,250
|
-1.70
|
|
Forest Ridg
|
237,946
|
233,700
|
90.96
|
228,414
|
240,000
|
90.74
|
-9,532
|
+6,300
|
-0.22
|
|
Grays Crk
|
202,871
|
202,630
|
101.77
|
205,223
|
205,495
|
99.96
|
+2,362
|
+2,865
|
-1.81
|
|
Greystone
|
429,127
|
426,000
|
167.04
|
454,043
|
460,000
|
156.80
|
+24,916
|
+34,000
|
-10.24
|
|
Plant Park
|
107,100
|
111,900
|
92.61
|
104,738
|
104,000
|
91.06
|
-3100
|
-7900
|
-1.55
|
|
Shadow Sp
|
134,722
|
136,000
|
92.32
|
131,329
|
131,000
|
83.66
|
-3,393
|
-5,000
|
-8.66
|
|
Sth Haven
|
228,430
|
217,800
|
96.35
|
220,200
|
226,000
|
92.99
|
-8,230
|
+8,200
|
-3.36
|
|
Sth Point
|
147,362
|
146,500
|
92.64
|
149,704
|
154,900
|
92.56
|
+2,342
|
+8,400
|
-0.08
|
|
Westm Est
|
159,823
|
161,350
|
90.11
|
158,829
|
158000
|
90.23
|
-1,823
|
-3,350
|
+0.12
|
|
Woodl Crs
|
151,578
|
154,900
|
91.15
|
156,781
|
159,000
|
87.99
|
+5,203
|
+4,100
|
-3.16
|
|
Willow Pt
|
181,351
|
182,450
|
113.90
|
181,415
|
182,660
|
113.59
|
+64
|
+210
|
-0.31
|
|
Total Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+$576
|
+$3,194
|
-$2.60
|
70785
|
Subdiv.
Name
|
6/07-12/07 Average
Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07 Median Sales Price
|
6/07-12/07
Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
2008 Average
Sale Price
|
2008 Median
Sales Price
|
2008 Average
$ Per Sq. Ft.
|
Average
Sales Price Change
|
Median Sales Price
Change
|
Average Sq.
Ft. Change
|
|
Collins Pl
|
260,093
|
252,000
|
124.91
|
251,644
|
254,950
|
120.07
|
-8449
|
+2,950
|
-4.84
|
|
Driftwood
|
159,450
|
162,450
|
105.93
|
152,617
|
155,000
|
100.35
|
-6,833
|
-7,450
|
-5.58
|
|
Duff Villag
|
141,143
|
140,650
|
105.31
|
139,156
|
139,950
|
103.81
|
-1,987
|
-750
|
-1.50
|
|
Lk Fennwd
|
197,300
|
187,900
|
111.76
|
196,667
|
218,000
|
115.59
|
-633
|
+30,100
|
+3.83
|
|
Spring Lak
|
183,678
|
184,900
|
103.81
|
187,738
|
185,250
|
97.84
|
+4,060
|
+350
|
-5.97
|
|
Three Laks
|
238,343
|
250,000
|
111.64
|
247,985
|
231,000
|
116.63
|
+9,642
|
-19,000
|
+4.99
|
|
The Mdws
|
145,617
|
147,450
|
104.94
|
141,570
|
139,900
|
105.43
|
-4,070
|
-7,550
|
+0.49
|
|
Total Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-$1,181
|
-$193
|
-$1.23
|
Air conditioning
