Osterville, MA

As the New Year has come and gone I wanted to take a moment to bring all of those that are interested up to speed with the constantly changing real estate market on Cape Cod, in particular the village of Osterville in the Town of Barnstable. I think most of us are looking forward to 2009 with some sort of trepidation that the fallout from the second half of 2008 is not complete and we will continue to see the markets drop exponentially. Let's all take a deep breath and look at some of the positives that are going to effect the real estate market over the next twelve months.

1. The mortgage rates are near an all time low and could continue to fall! However do not make the mistake of waiting for the bottom because you could end up missing the boat. The difference in a mortgage of 1% is dramatic and if the rates continue to fall we will be at 5% by the beginning of February. The rates will rebound quickly so if you see a great deal take advantage. You should be in constant contact with your mortgage specialist!
2. Right now the NAR and others ie. Barney Frank are pushing for the Jumbo Mortgage Rates split in Massachusetts and other states be increased to last years levels of $523,000 in Mass or higher. This is particularly important in Osterville where the average median home is around $750,000. As for the new classification loans called the conforming jumbos those rates are today in Mass at 5.68% so take advantage! Don't miss these historic mortgage rates.
3. Historically when a new president is elected the economy will surge due to growing optimism. When this occurs in conjunction with the falling mortgage rates it is likely the real estate market will see lasting effects as the deals dry up and the prices increase so don't miss the boat! As the market swings into the buying season of March through October the savvy buyers will take advantage, build a responsible strategy and implement it.
4. There are amazing deals in the real estate market nationally and particularly in Osterville where people have been trying to unload second homes that were purchased at the top of the market 3 years ago. With the local market having depressed by up to 25% in the last 18 months there are vast amounts of equity to be purchased! Remember particularly on the Cape these markets will come back stronger than ever, decisions made today can and will secure financial strength for years to come.

The long and the short of it is be aggressive and make offers on properties that you feel you are getting a good deal on. Don't wait, you will inevitably cost yourself thousands of dollars in the long run. The government takes the housing market very seriously as I'm sure you've noticed and will do everything in its power to get the market fluid again. Banks that have been "bailed out" are now being pressured to start responsibly lending again. This while the Fed is buying up mortgage backed securities to instill more confidence in the banking system means the time to buy is now!

Good luck and feel free to contact me anytime regarding some of the best deals on the Cape

Ted Komenda

508-648-1587

tkomenda@weichertdunhill.com

This weeks top ten and I apologize for the missed weeks....

1. I think the report on Sundays 60 minutes about where the bottom is was quite telling. I'm not sure how people out there feel about the show on the whole but personally I feel the staff and reporters do a great job of digging deep to find the meat of stories. Scott Pelley report about Whitney Tilsons and his views of the "Alt-A and option ARMs" fiasco that is on the horizon was quite sobering. It is frightening to think that according to him and others we are only in the third inning of this economic disaster. Here is a short excerpt of that interview and the rest can be found at this link http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml.

Now the Alt-A and option ARM loans made back in the heyday are starting to reset, causing the mortgage payments to go up and homeowners to default.

"The defaults right now are incredibly high. At unprecedented levels. And there's no evidence that the default rate is tapering off. Those defaults almost inevitably are leading to foreclosures, and homes being auctioned, and home prices continuing to fall," Tilson explains.

"What you seem to be saying is that there is a very predictable time bomb effect here?" Pelley asks.

"Exactly. I mean, you can look back at what was written in '05 and '07. You can look at the reset dates. You can look at the current default rates, and it's really very clear and predictable what's gonna happen here," Tilson says.

Just look at a projection from the investment bank of Credit Suisse: there are the billions of dollars in sub-prime mortgages that reset last year and this year. But what hasn't hit yet are Alt-A and option ARM resets, when homeowners will pay higher interest rates in the next three years. We're at the beginning of a second wave.

"How big is the potential damage from the Alt As compared to what we just saw in the sub-primes?" Pelley asks.

"Well, the sub-prime is, was approaching $1 trillion, the Alt-A is about $1 trillion. And then you have option ARMs on top of that. That's probably another $500 billion to $600 billion on top of that," Tilson says.

2. I have great issue with reports of a lobbyist for the National Association of Realtors leaking that the mortgage rates would be dropping to 4.5% didn't do anyone any favors. Anyone that was interested in the buying some of these great deals out there right now in the market is now back on the sideline waiting for this possible new mortgage rate. Thanks for nothing....

3. CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett both going to the Yankees. They must have something for initials down in New York this off season. I think if they were trying to buy a new pitching staff this year they are off to one hell of a start. However I believe Sabathia is 1-4 pitching in New York and Burnett seems only to not be injured and pitch well in contract years. I hope the Yankees don't get Teixera and have to settle on Manny. He could literally destroy that team from the inside out I mean if he didn't like the spotlight in Boston how is New York going to treat him...

4. In the past I favored the "Bailout" but now I think that Congress is doing the right thing by not jumping in to save the auto industry. By giving the Big Three money now will only keep them on the same path that they currently are following. By being forced to file for bankruptcy the auto makers will be allowed to renegotiate with all of their purveyors and their work force as well. It is obvious that the UAW has a stranglehold on the Big Three, but their management practices have also been terrible. Try building cars that people want to buy! The relative difference between what the Japanese auto makers pay their workforce is only about $850 per car! Well that is not the reason we are not selling American auto's. We need to be more competitive across the board with new concepts and innovative thinking. Not the same old dame old which is exactly what we are going to get if lawmakers decide to appropriate funds to the tune of 14 billion dollars. And if George Bush decides that all of Capitol Hill is wrong and decides to have the White House step in and bail out Detroit he will cement his presidency as the worst of all time.

5. I think that the job done by Matt Cassel this year and the rest of the Patriots is nothing short of amazing. I do however have to give most of the credit to Belichick and his systems. Sure Matt Cassel is probably going to make alot of money out in free agency next year or he's going to make a lot if the Pats franchise him, either way he should thank Belichick. And do the Pats have anyone left on the defense who isn't injured...

6. Talk about a steal by Theo Epstein of signing Dustin Pedroia for the next six years at those numbers. Great general manager and also a good deal for the player who now has financial security for the rest of his life. There's something to be said for that. Still great signing!!!

7. I couldn't have been happier to see the "Juice" sent off to prison. Talk about a sense of entitlement and complete recklessness. Yeah O.J. when you bring a gun to a hotel room and tell the people there they can't leave until they give you what you want is called ARMED ROBBERY AND KIDNAPPING. So take your fake tears and enjoy the next nine years of your life in JAIL!!!

8. Its about ready to explode down in "Big D" as T.O. and Romo and Whitten are about ready to have a race war over whose getting the ball too much or too little. Hard to say you didn't see this one coming. I think it might be time for a new coach, one that doesn't coddle all his players and can control the ones that need to be controlled. However that being said you will never get another great coach as long as Jerry Jones patrols the sidelines during the games and calls out his players when he thinks they aren't injured. Jerry I suggest you put on some pads and get out there yourself if not keep your mouth shut...

9. I think these actors and actresses that are considering going on strike for more money should take a look at what's going on in the economy before they make any monumental decisions. I'm hearing that the networks are cutting back some of there programming because corporate America can't afford the ad rates. We are probably in for more reality TV and prime time game shows which cost dramatically less to produce than shows. Pay attention people were in a recession and you are a luxury.

10. I hope all have a safe and wonderful holiday season and a happy New Year!!!

Ted

It's time for this week's Top Ten...

1. I'll start off with the election of a new president. I will not get into everyone's personal voting but I am more interested in the amazing circumstances surrounding it. I think we forget that it is an awesome and up until the last 25 years fairly rare moment to see a peaceful passing of power. Can you imagine years ago a leader such as King George III, Napoleon, Hitler, or Stalin, willfully to give up being the leader of their country just because the people voted him out or because he couldn't run for another term. I think not yet every four years we have this capability and have been the blueprint for other countries worldwide to follow. I know the real transfer of power doesn't happen until inauguration but it still is impressive.

2. I am a little confused with this early voting capability that states are offering. I understand the idea behind absentee ballots but I thought election day was November 4th. Isn't this for a reason? Thoughts?

3. I can't tell everyone how disgusted I am with the idea of Manny Ramirez getting the kind of money he's going to and probably from the Yankees!!! The guy is a thug and should be treated as such.

4. I was sad to see the death of Michael Creighton. He was a great writer who was an even better storyteller. I also understand he had some opposite theories on global warming that made him a pariah in Hollywood at the end. While I might not agree with him regarding global warming I applaud him researching the data and having his own voice.

5. If people are not watching the show House they are missing a great show. Hugh Lorie hits it out of the park as a brilliant and miserable cripple who cares only for the truth and has no problem lying to get it. Worth watching. I am also excited for the two hour 24 event coming up in November, I believe the 23, but could be wrong, TV needs you back Jack Bauer....

6. Who really cares what kind of dog Obama gets for his daughters in the White House. I have a feeling whatever they get will be brunt of jokes, like the ones that have come out about Obama since his election. Some funny stuff!

7. I happened to see an interesting story on the resurgence of the Erie Canal. For those of you that don't know, the Erie Canal connects the Great Lakes with the Hudson River and the Atlantic Ocean. It over the last century and a half has slowly fallen into obscurity as a result of the train and highway networks that crisscross the country. Now though with the price of transporting goods skyrocketing it has become cheaper to use the canal to ship some goods. Last year doubled the output of the previous years and they are expecting exponential gains this year with some plants considering relocating near the canal but there is nowhere to go but up in these statistics. Still though it's nice to see a piece of Americana still working.

8. This Saturday there is a big game in college football when #1 Alabama faces off against SEC foes LSU. This will mark the return of Nick Saban to LSU. I'm sure emotions will be riding high in this game!!! All I can say is Roll Tide Roll!

9. I seems likely that the government will be getting into the car business after reports that Ford is going through cash extremely fast. If considering that the government represents the people does that make Americans simply used car salesmen???

10. I will be very interested to see how many people George Bush pardons at the end of his presidency. I have a feeling that Karl Rove will be getting a blanket pardon to cover god knows how many laws he broke!

Have a great week!!!

Happy Halloween to all! This weeks Top Ten....

1. Congrats to the Philadelphia Phillies on a great season and a World Championship! Overall I thought the series was lackluster and certainly a TV ratings bomb, however I did like the three and a half inning finale! As a footnote the Tampa Bay Rays also had a season they should be proud of and looking at that team it appears they will be in the mix for years to come.

2. Well as this election draws near I think if I see another political ad I'll put my foot through the TV. Then to add insult to injury Obama takes out a thirty minute feel good infomercial at prime time. I think he has to many contributors if he can buy an 8-8:30 time slot on three major stations. I won't get into who I feel should win or lose now I just want it over, sad considering it is an extremely important election, kind of like all of those commercials before Christmas!

3. Did anyone pick the Tennessee Titans to be undefeated at this point in the season....

4. We have now come to the end of probably the most volatile month on Wall Street in a century. I hope all of you out there were protected and didn't lose to much. Unfortunately my personal belief is we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Major companies seem to be unilaterally laying off, the GNP has dropped .03% in the third quarter, and though it is beginning to thaw the credit markets have tightened their collective belts so tightly that it will be years before we wade through this disaster! Good luck to all!

5. I read a report earlier this year that more Americans had died in Chicago than in Iraq up to this point in the year (I think it was through September 15th) I'm not sure if it was true or not but if so maybe we should get out of Chicago!!! On a more serious note as we come into the holiday season remember the soldiers that are fighting and dying for our way of life half way around the world in Iraq and Afghanistan, whether you think they should be there or not.

6. I look at some of the halloween costumes out there today and only shake my head. When I was a kid I might of had a light saber or a sheet with eye slits cut out but the costume wasn't as important as the size of your goodie bag...

7. I think the Cleveland Cavaliers should be ashamed of themselves for going back to the locker room instead of watching the Celtics raise their 17th banner and their ring ceremony. There have been plenty of years where the Red Sox had enough class to sit in the dugout and watch the Yankees get their rings and visa-versa (recently anyway). Cleveland you shouldn't let Lebron dictate the level of class on your team because he doesn't want to watch another team celebrate. That's easy to fix Lebron, win yourself!

8. Interesting story about State Sen. Dianne Wilkerson who was allegedly (Ok kevin?) caught taking bribes. I guess her bra size is a 23G.

9. Has anyone seen in good movies lately??? I know that I haven't, if you have please send them along (No adult titles Scott tell me those privately)

10. Has anyone been as amazed as I am with the new prosthetics that are available to our returning soldiers. I was watching a show on discovery that featured injured soldiers at Walter Reed that were being fitted with new limbs and was so happy to see the pride on the faces of these young men and women who now coan do everything you and I can without help. And I was watching the news last night were they said they are already experimenting with growng artificial human lungs in the lab. Maybe I won't quit smoking just yet, the SNL Lung Brush is finally hitting the market....

Have a great week!

Ted

Loyal Sox Fans,

Today is the most unfortunate day of the season. The Tampa Bay Rays defeated our home town Boston Red Sox last night in game 7 of the ALCS to end our season. The natural tendency today is to hang our heads in sorrow, to be stuck in a perpetual state of disbelief, and share with others our disappointment. However I think all of us can agree that the Sox this year gave us another great ride! The home town nine fought through serious injuries and adversity the past 6 months to still entertain us with good sound baseball. I think it is only natural at this time of year when the unthinkable happens, and we are done for the season, to look longingly toward the future and start to evaluate next years club. I must say the future looks promising. It seems Theo and his group will have plenty of money to spend on free agents and the pipeline of young talent already in the system is strong. Just take a minute to think about the fact that the Sox no linger have to pay Manny 20 million and Curt Schilling around 10 million. That should help us fill some possible holes! It will be interesting to see what the Sox end up doing with Jason Varitek, after all the loyalty and all of the intangibles he has I think his anemic batting average will probably show him the door. So on such a sad day spend some time looking forward to next years possibilities and remember THE YANKEES DIDN'T EVEN MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND BASICALLY WHERE OUT OF CONTENTION ALL YEAR!!! If that doesn't bring a smile to your face today nothing will.

Go Sox in 2009

Ted