It is likely that for much of 2009 the real estate market will not be greatly different than it is now. That is not to say that there should not be some improvement, and that we might actually be within or near the bottoming period of the market. With confidence affected by the financial turbulence/negative media and having a look at the following statistical information, it is likely we will see demand for housing purchases remain subdued in the near future.
One caveat, before we delve into the statistics: the current real estate market is unlike anything many of us have seen in a long while. Although I will be presenting you actual historical information, it is risky to form opinions based on past indicators that most likely are losing their predictive power in this different market environment. As the saying goes, you can't drive forward by looking in the rearview mirror.
Monthly Units Sold: there is very little activity compared to the same periods last year, and what activity there is seems to have peaked in June and July and is in a general decline. Although it's tough to predict the future, given a five-month trend of less and less, especially when compared to the same periods for the previous year, the market environment is unbalanced with too much inventory and prices will have to go down. Even though Sudbury continues to be a desirable town, the bleak economy will make it out of reach for more people than in the past. When buyers' ability to afford to buy here dips, prices will need to fall in order to sell the homes that are currently on the market.
Selling Price to Original Price Ratio: In the beginning of the year sellers and their agents didn't get it that the market had changed and the prices had to drop. Once they figured that out, around May, the ratios climbed to just a bit below their historical averages. The spike in December is a good one, but too little data exists to call it a trend.
In a hot market everything sells, and condition, location and price are not as critical. They may add to days on market, but not prevent an eventual sale. However, in a weak market like we have now, only the "High-Quality" properties sell: homes with desirable locations, updated, staged and in perfect condition, and priced at the correct point where they are seen as the best value among their competition.
If your home is not that "High-Quality" house, for whatever reason, and you are in a situation where you must sell your house and you still have equity in the house, you should be extremely aggressive in your pricing strategy. Based on a number of market factors, including the current inventory levels in Sudbury, prices are likely to continue to fall. You have the option to price to sell quickly in an effort to preserve your remaining equity or you can hold out for a turnaround that probably will not happen for quite a while. We all know the laws of supply and demand. With fewer buyers due to economics and mortgage restrictions there are not enough shoppers to buy all the inventory. Obviously then the most attractive and best valued houses are the ones that will sell.
Monthly Average Sales Price: As the year started, the drop in sales price started with the small, older homes in the neighborhoods of central and south Sudbury. Later in the year, the decline had spread to the multi-million dollar homes in north Sudbury as well. The smaller homes were impacted sooner by foreclosures, short sales, and vacancies among the entry level homes, which in turn caused competitive pricing among sellers. In the middle of the year the slowdown rippled up to the mid-sized home and in the last half to the larger homes. So we see that over the year, the demand reversed itself, with the greatest demand now coming from the smaller homes - incomes match better with the prices of smaller homes and price reductions have obviously gotten buyers excited. Also, one has to wonder, without all the "trick mortgages" out there are we finding out how few people can really afford to pay over a million dollars for a house.
Days On Market: the trend is generally downward, which is very encouraging. It's probably hard to remember, but just a couple of years ago we used to think of a property as "stale" if it had been on the market for 90 days. Looking at the numbers for 2007, I think we can see that the market was much more stable than it became in 2008 when days on market jumped all over the place. I think the trend over the last few months may be more a function of "High-Quality" houses selling and sellers who would like to sell but are waiting on the sidelines for a while for the market to recover, than increased demand.
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MARKET
The question on everybody's lips (especially potential buyers of course) is "Will Prices Stop Dropping?" Probably, possibly, maybe. Buyers are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for prices to correct. It will surely soon be apparent to most buyers and sellers, however, that prices are really so close to the bottom that it makes no difference where the exact bottom is. As buyers become more active, this will encourage more potential sellers to list their homes for sale. The likely effect is that there will continue to be a wide choice of homes to buy for the next few months as we approach the "Spring Market" , and it is quite possible that there will be a shortage of "High-Quality" homes to buy.
It generally takes a long-established sellers' market, or at the least a balanced market, with the levels of inventory matching the demand before price stability becomes a reality. What we probably can look forward to in the near future in Sudbury is a bottoming-out in 2009, possibly even happening during the Spring Market. Average sales prices will fluctuate a little just as they have over the past several months. Home sales will continue around their present rate for the coming months and sellers who price their homes for sale at fair market value will sell them reasonably quickly, say in 45-90 days.
The Bottom Line:
For buyers, especially first time home buyers, this is a GREAT time to buy. We are at or near the bottom range in prices, and mortgages rates are at record lows.
For sellers, the near future may continue to present challenges, but the market is expected to start stabilizing this year and if you have a desirable house properly priced, selling it is going to get a little easier.
Now that the traditional busy "Spring Market" is about to begin, if I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.
Mike Hunter, the House Hunter
Your Neighborhood Realtor for Sudbury and Metrowest Boston.
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
447 Boston Post Rd, Sudbury, MA 01776
Tel: 978.580.1069
Blog: http://househunter3.blogspot.com
Email: Mike.Hunter@NEMoves.com
Web: www.HunterTheHouseHunter.com
Information for charts from MLSPIN. It is deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed.
Sudbury MA market conditions: It's a great time to buy in Sudbury! There are 94 single-family homes for sale and both median and average sale prices have dropped during 2008. There were only 6 closed sales during November compared with 23 in November 2007, and 12 during October for both years. The median sale price was $547,500 -down 18.5% from Nov. 2007; the average sale price was $617,917 - a 17.5% drop from the previous year. Average time on the market is up to 201 days from 189. Year-to-date sales decreased 23% from 2007. Both median and average sale prices dropped by approximately 10%.
