Wellesley, MA

With the official start of spring beginning at the end of the week, let's take a look at the first 2 months of 2009 in Wellesley:

Some of the major media outlets have decreed certain towns to be “recession proof,” and others have taken attendee numbers at an open house to be the indicator of how well a town’s market is faring these days.

But rather than relying on anecdotal evidence, let’s take a look at the facts.

What are the relevant numbers and what do they tell us?

WELLESLEY

Homes sales in Wellesley were down 62.5% for the first two months of 2009, compared to the same period in 2008.

Transaction dollar volume slid a precipitous 70.6%.

Wellesley’s average list price for single family homes is currently $1,949,567.

This is in stark contrast and out of balance with the average selling price of $1,077,917, for the first two months of 2009.

With numbers this far askew it may be some time before the market regains equilibrium in Wellesley.

Wellesley’s numbers remained strong for some time after other nearby communities had been hit by the recession.

But the downturn in the economy has clearly caught up with Wellesley’s real estate market. The vast difference in the average listing price, versus the ACTUAL average sales price means that buyers aren’t perceiving the same value as the sellers do, OR that the higher end is not moving as well as Wellesley’s more affordable/lower range homes.

Buyers seem to be gravitating towards the lower priced homes in Wellesley, and appear to be avoiding the higher end, at this time.

This is not to say that the higher end is at a standstill - if the home is priced right, and the market is clearly responding to homes that are priced according to this market's value - and has been updated and is in great condition - then it will be perceived as an attractive value.

But homes perceived as "entry" into the Wellesley market, are the ones seeing the most activity right now.

JOHN PRESCOTT

-BostonKayakGuy

Top Real Estate Agent for more than 14 years, serving the real estate needs of Wellesley, South Natick, Weston, Needham, Wayland, Newton, Framingham and other MetWest communities. www.johnprescott.net

JOHN PRESCOTT

Vice President

Century 21 Commonwealth

508-523-9252

BostonKayakGuy…The MetWest Scene

As of February 28, 2009, there were 142 single family listings in Wellesley on the Multiple Listing Service (MLSPin). With spring hardly upon us, there has been a 33% addition to the single family home inventory during the past month. Unfortunately, the market statistics, including sales, listings under agreement and market absorption are all tell-tale signs that now is not a great time to list your home for sale in Wellesley (however it is a great time to buy.) "Small is the new black" as the Boston Globe was quoted recently. Wellesley's excess inventory, combined with comparable properties in South Natick, Weston, and Dover and Weston will prove a challenge for months to come as homebuyers look for affordable living and newer construction. During February, 42 new single family listings were added to our MLSPin and six additional single family homes were relisted for sale on the MLS, with an average list price of $1,636,978.

Based on the number of active single family listings versus the number of sales during the month, there is a market absorption rate of 1,080 days. That is to say, based on the volume of sales during the past month, it will take approximately 3 years to sell all of the single family homes currently in inventory and sitting on the Wellesley market. These market absorption rates, of course, are skewed because of the low volume of home sales and properties put under agreement during the winter months, however one should not stray too far from watching market absorption rates because they are a very good indicator of future economic trends in real estate.

The average list price for a single family home is $1,944,472. The lowest price is $199,000 and the highest price is $5,995,000, with the largest concentration of homes (37.3%) priced in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price range. Of note, the average list price for a single family home in February 2008 was $1,728,278.

The median price is $1,595,000 and the average days on market are 147 days. This compares to a median list price of $1,452,000 and average days on market of 131 days as of February 29, 2008.

There were 11 properties that went under agreement during the month of February (February 2008- 21 properties). Four single family homes sold during the month, with the average sales price being $1,433,750 and the median was $1,055,000, with the average days on market being 120 days. Compare this to 11 properties sold during February 2008, with an average and median sales price of $1,416,056 and $1,165,000, respectively, and the average number of days on market being 210 days.

During February 2009:

26 properties experienced price changes averaging -5.58%

Sales price to original price was 91%

Sales price to (last) adjusted price was 94%

5 property listings expired with an average days on market of 107 days

As of January 31, 2009, there were 108 single family listings in Wellesley on the Multiple Listing Service (MLSPin). A marked slowdown in the sale and a moderate rate of new listing of single family homes in Wellesley signals some tough times to come, but plenty of opportunities for buyers. As discussed below, average sales prices have gone down, whereas average listing prices have increased. This "upside down" pattern is a sign of increasing market absorption rates and a call to sellers to rethink their pricing strategy with their existing broker or to relist with someone taking a more critical look at the marketplace. During January, 17 new single family listings were added to our MLSPin and an additional 4 single family homes were relisted for sale on the MLS, with an average list price of $1,380,784.

Based on the number of active single family listings versus the number of sales during the month, there is a market absorption rate of 463 days. That is to say, based on the volume of sales during the past month, it will take an alarming 15.4 months to sell all of the single family homes currently in inventory and sitting on the Wellesley market.

The average list price for a single family home is $1,994,087. The lowest price is $199,000 and the highest price is $5,999,000, with the largest concentration of homes (34.9%) priced in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price range. Of note, the average list price for a single family home in January 2008 was $1,667,505.

The median price is $1,644,500 and the average days on market are 175 days. This compares to a median list price of $1,399,000 and average days on market of 140 days as of January 31, 2008.

There were 3 properties that went under agreement during the month of January (January 2008- 17 properties). 7 single family homes sold during January, with the average sales price being $929,286 and the median was $945,000, with the average days on market being 86 days. Compare this to 17 properties sold during January 2008, with an average and median sales price of $1,307,129 and $1,075,000, respectively, and the average number of days on market being 132 days.

During January 2009:

26 properties experienced price changes averaging -5.39%

Sales price to original price was 91%

Sales price to (last) adjusted price was 95%

10 property listings expired with an average days on market of 191 days