Winnipeg, MB

Threat of global recession to hinder home sales in major Canadian housing markets in 2008 and 2009, says RE/MAX

Global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on residential real estate activity in most major Canadian centres during the latter half of 2008. Although the forecast for 2009 promises more of the same, most markets are expected to weather the storm, says RE/MAX.

Housing market performance will clearly be contingent on economic performance at a local, provincial, and national level in 2009. Issues affecting the overall economy are impacting housing markets across the country and the situation is not expected to be remedied until consumer confidence is restored. If inventory levels remain stable, pent-up demand kicks into gear, and lower interest rates stimulate home-buying activity, we could see a bounce back as early as spring.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook for 2009 examined residential real estate trends in 22 markets across the country and found that average price held up remarkably well in 2008, despite 13 centres reporting double-digit declines in home sales. Solid gains earlier in the year likely served to prop-up housing values at year-end. The prognosis for housing activity in the first six to nine months of 2009 is somewhat static, given continued volatility in financial markets and the threat of recession, but as stability returns, housing markets are expected to recover.

Nationally, 440,000 homes are expected to change hands in 2008, down 15 per cent from record 2007 levels. Canadian housing values are expected to hover at $300,000, a nominal three per cent decline from last year's historic peak. By year-end 2009, unit sales should match 2008 levels, while average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000.

Major markets are evenly split in terms of housing performance in 2009, with 11 centres forecast to match or exceed 2008 home sales and 11 expected to slide from 2008 levels. The highest percentage increase in unit sales is anticipated in Saskatoon, where the number of homes sold is forecast to climb three per cent in 2009. Housing values are expected to hold the line in 2009, with St. John's, Montreal, Kingston, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina posting modest gains in average price in 2009.

Canada's real estate environment is considerably more complex than it has been in recent years. The landscape is definitely changing -- with most markets shifting into either balanced or buyer's territory. The shut out is over. Sellers no longer rule the roost. Opportunities exist for purchasers like never before, including lower interest rates, greater inventory levels, the luxury of time to make decisions, and the upper-hand at the negotiating table. Motivated vendors will need to take note of the new mindset and set their prices accordingly.

Canadian sellers are slowly adjusting to new realities. For most markets, 2008 started in balanced territory and moved into buyer's market conditions during the latter half of 2008. The year ahead will prove challenging, especially for vendors.

While the economy will dictate real estate performance next year, it's important to remember that demand still exists in the marketplace. In the midst of stock market turmoil, sold signs continue to appear on lawns across the country. With affordable lending rates and increased selection, first-time and move-up buyers with good credit may choose to play their investment strategy safe and purchase a home. The comfort of a tangible investment like real estate goes a long way in tough times.

RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998) Inc. Housing Market Outlook 2009 Report, issued

December 3, 2008.

Residential Unit Sales by Market 2004-2009
Market	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008*	%	2009**	%
British Columbia
Vancouver	37,972	42,222	36,479	38,978	26,000	-33	26,000	0
Victoria	7,685	7,970	7,500	8,403	6,500	-23	5,800	-11
Kelowna	5,153	6,070	5,459	6,192	3,900	-37	3,510	-10
Alberta
Edmonton	17,652	18,634	21,984	20,427	18,900	-8	18,900	0
Calgary	26,511	31,569	33,027	32,176	22,500	-30	23,000	2
Saskatchewan
Regina	2,785	2,730	2,953	3,957	3,450	-13	3,450	0
Saskatoon	2,999	3,246	3,430	4,446	3,600	-19	3,700	3
Manitoba
Winnipeg***	11,447	12,087	12,304	13,079	12,900	-1	12,900	0
Ontario
Hamilton-Burlington	13,176	13,565	13,059	13,866	12,200	-12	11,500	-6
Kitchener-Waterloo	5,931	6,147	6,115	7,031	6,600	-6	6,000	-9
London-St. Thomas	9,238	9,133	9,234	9,686	9,000	-7	9,000	0
Ottawa	13,158	13,099	13,783	14,579	13,900	-5	13,500	-3
Sudbury	2,180	2,477	2,519	2,632	2,400	-9	2,400	0
Toronto	83,501	84,145	83,084	93,193	79,000	-15	75,000	-5
Barrie and District	4,657	4,675	4,397	5,017	4,250	-15	4,250	0
St. Catharines	3,130	3,217	3,214	3,258	2,900	-11	2,900	0
Kingston	3,764	3,464	3,517	3,725	3,550	-5	3,550	0
Quebec
Montreal	48,564	49,506	50,106	56,151	48,000	-14	43,000	-11
New Brunswick
Saint John	1,612	1,901	1,852	2,253	2,250	0	2,200	-2
Nova Scotia
Halifax-Dartmouth	5,516	6,698	6,462	7,261	6,500	-10	6,300	-3
PEI
Charlottetown	1,500	1,449	1,492	1,769	1,450	-18	1,400	-4
Newfoundland and Labrador
St. John's	3,203	3,211	3,537	4,471	4,950	11	4,700	-5
NATIONAL	460,790	483,789	484,027	520,747	440,000	-15	440,000	0
* Estimate **Forecast ***Total MLS
Source: CREA, OMREB, TREB, WREB,Sudbury Real Estate Board, Ottawa Real Estate Board, RE/MAX

It is 12:07 on October 27, 2009. The first day of the rest of my life as a Blogger.

I am excited, anxious to get started as Ciabatta crumbs sprinkle down into my keyboard. I sip cold coffee, thickened with Borgers Sweetened Condensed milk, a decadent, high caloric vice, rapidly becoming a daily habit.

Communicating from a7th floor condo, located in an urban center, a prestigious address, in a good neighborhood. Muddy waters flow below, as leafless trees brace for another long winter. I note my next door neighbors have replaced the high-rise outhouse ....

with pre-fab roof panels, the icing on the cake.

Progress. Construction. Real Estates.

We are closed today, in Canada. To give Thanks. Our TSX is also closed. But yours isn't. Many of us Northerners watched today as the Dow rebounded from 'Free-fall Friday' to 'Miraculous Monday'.

We tuned in to Obama talking about his rescue mission, tax incentives, mortgage breaks, foreclosure forestallers. If elected he will enforce a new 3 month 'grace' period before banks can ask homewoners to turn in their keys. I recalled hearing some banks were backed up over 6 months behind on foreclosures. Would this period include the 6 month backlog, or is it before or after that period has started/ended. Minutia, I decided.

Then the bell rang, trading ended almost 1,000 points up, and we ate Turkey. With trimmings.

Thank full for another harvest. Another day.

BEST SEPTEMBER MLS® PERFORMANCE EVER

Contrary to Media the Winnipet MLS® Sales are actually Up 3%; With the Dollar Volume Rising 16%

The Winnipeg MLS® market continues to show resilience in the

face of a national real estate market adjustment as it recorded its best September

ever. This should not come as a surprise given a recent forecast from the

Conference Board of Canada indicating Winnipeg will be one of the nation's

leading economic performers in 2008. It forecasts real economic growth of 3.3 per

cent. One significant factor helping the local housing market is the continual influx

of new immigrants and decrease in out-migration.

This was clearly one development that led WinnipegREALTORS® to remain

optimistic in its 2008 forecast to call for a repeat performance of another excellent

year of MLS® sales activity and more pressure for another price jump. In fact, with

still three months remaining, WinnipegREALTORS® has reached the $2 billion

milestone in sales volume for the second year in a row and in the quickest time on

record.

One notable trend in the last few months that is worth highlighting again in

September is the significant improvement in inventory. Active listings are over

3,000, an increase of 44 per cent over the same time last year, and the close to

1,800 new listings entered on the MLS® is up 22 per cent over September 2007.

September MLS® unit sales were up 3% (1,097/1,060) while dollar volume

increased 16% ($204.9 million/$177.1 million) in comparison to the same month

last year. Year-to-date sales are in a virtual deadlock with last year's record sales

pace (10,489/10,503). Dollar volume has risen 14% ($2.03 billion/$1.78 billion) to

eclipse the $2 billion mark in record time.

"There is more evidence of a less hectic market with things settling down compared

to earlier in the year," said Darlene Clare, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. "It

is the MLS® market statistic we monitor every month which shows one in three

homes selling in September went for above list price when it would have been at

least one in two homes in the busiest spring months."

Clare added, "The increase in listings is providing relief to buyers who now have

more choice than before. Whether buying or selling, a REALTOR® should be

enlisted to advise on changing market conditions and competitive pricing."

For residential-detached sales, the most active price range was from $160,000 to

$199,999 with 24 % of total sales. Next busiest was the $130,000 to $159,999 price

range at 14%. The average days on market for sales of MLS® residential-detached

listings was 26 days, one day slower than last month and 3 days off the pace set in

September 2007.

Reprinted with permission from Winnpipeg Realtors.