About Bethesda's Wildwood Manor

The prevailing housing mess was for the most part caused by too many homes chasing too few buyers. That's a classic case - Economy 101 stuff on college campuses - of real estate supply and demand going their separate ways. A not just a tad, but by a mile, to put it mildly. Of course, easy mortgage money egged on the housing market to ever further heights that ultimately began defying gravity. Even that precarious stage lasted longer, despite a host of red flags being hoisted, than many real estate observers foresaw.

Moody's Investor Service recently reported that at the end of the second quarter there were an extra 1.8 million vacant homes idling on the vast real estate scene from the usual norm. An uptick from the first quarter's 1.7 million. Mortgage lenders are nowadays repossessing at an increasing pace property that homeowners could not get a modification for - like under HAMP or through their own home loan provider - and are being foreclosed on. Over the last 20 years vacant homes amounted on average to about 6% of the total housing inventory and now that number stands at 7.7%, Moody's continues.

As its own estimate for a better housing supply and demand alignment, Moody's believes an adequate balance will materialize by the end of 2012. Strict mortgage qualification criteria, thus far persistently high unemployment and less than stellar homebuyer credit background are issues that should improve by then, and help narrow the currently wide gap.

That may be true in areas where the real estate market experienced only mild blows, like kid gloves would do. Washington, D.C. metro fits well this picture. But regions that went through the tremendous housing acceleration and then a dizzying, G-force dive probably will take much longer to find a comfortable, workman-like balance. Las Vegas for sure heads the list in this category, and has uneasy company from many parts of California, Arizona and Florida. The notorious four.

One thing that would speed up the balancing process would be for home builders to curtail their current activity even more. For instance, they could cut in half the current production rate from whatever it is to quickly bring the supply side much closer to where demand is. This would pour new energy into the real estate market by propelling price appreciation and then also help boost the entire economy, jolting it out of the present lethargy. Washington has tried quite a few solutions to right the housing and mortgage markets and it ought to keep trying until it finds the real thing designed specifically for today's conditions. This might be worth taking a serious look at.

The recent oil spill has had a harsh impact on everything associated with the Gulf of Mexico and its alluring waters. One of the less-discussed issues, so far at least, has been residential real estate and how severely is it going to be affected. CoreLogic - a California analytics, business services and information boutique - has bravely ventured into the topic and has compiled some sobering numbers for everyone involved in housing to debate about.

Residential real estate values are supposed to wane in the coastal areas by $648 million for the first year and possibly rise to as high as $3 billion over five years, CoreLogic estimates. This is based on what has happened there to date, which is already quite a monster. Popular beach destinations string along from Mississippi and around the curve down Florida's west coast and hold something like 600,000 homes within 1,000 meters from the water.

CoreLogic's research is based on much-used techniques for forecasting environmental amenity values on coastal property on one side and then measuring adverse impacts on those values when a calamity like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill strikes, on the other. Like in this case, recreational use of the beaches is either limited or possibly completely restricted for a period. Buyers have paid nice premiums for homes on the water and now that extra expenditure is largely lost.

Moreover, should the already spilled oil somehow work its way around Florida and up its legendary east coast the cost would leap up to $28 billion through five years, CoreLogic reports. Florida's housing market is already on a super strong drip treatment and this would set it back even further.

Many who were planning to take advantage of today's low mortgage rates and purchase something around the Gulf of Mexico are predictably having second thoughts about that. Either they are going to wait and see or then look elsewhere, like further up the east coast, all across the Pacific shoreline and also give lakefront real estate a chance. These alternatives may experience a moderate upswing in activity in the coming months.

If the oil in the Gulf is cleaned up rather quickly and unhindered beach access is restored throughout it could lessen the expected amenity value erosion. Even so, the memories surrounding the events from the rig's explosion and demise to the inaccurate oil flow reports and the economic loss to the seafood industry and to the struggles of wildlife will long linger in everyone's mind. There are hundreds of oil rigs operating in the Gulf and their presence could harm potential buyers' trust that their coastal property investment is safe from another calamity.

Photo by divemasterking2000