About York County, NB

As we continue into Summer and our typical booming sales season things just keep getting better and better! Wow, we are sooo lucky in Fredericton, the city of Stately Elms. What a real estate haven!

Now for the facts. Our listings are averaging only a -3% drop and have been quite consistantly throughout the year. We should expect the same average drop for the rest of the year.

Sales in units has increased year over year from a -15% in April to a -13% for May. This should improve more as we move into June. Our dollar volume of sales has improved substantially year over year from -12% in April to only a -7% in May. That is almost a 50% increase in sales from month to month. The activity now is unprecedented in a global market now in a recession. The real irony is that June even expects to be better.

Housing has become everyones dream and just about eveyone imployed seems to be motivated to aquire that dream. As real estate agents lets help them achieve!

Well, well, well things are improving as we see the Spring sales getting ever so gradually better and better. This is so typical of the Fredericton Market where each month from January to June we see gradual improvement quite consistantly year after year.

We can readily see that April sales volume has improved from a -16% in March to a -12% in April. Unit sales have increased from a -20% in March to a -15% in April. Listings are holding constant at a -3% month to month. This represents a very gradual slowing of our market so that it is not visable to the average consumer. In fact the decrease in our market is so subliminal that the unit price in Fredericton is still going up as the buyer here believes we are in a prosperity market.

Again, I believe this gradual increase in production will continue into June. Thus having our market end up with a -10% year over year. The residential market will continue to hold it's own, however, the commercial market is doing very well as we see many substantial buildings being erected as I write this.

So Folks, look for a continued market improvement as we approach summer. We still can see lots of opportunity out there for your main cliental, the " first time home buyer". Good luck and have a great summer.

Talk to you in May end.

FREDERICTON MARKET FOR JANUARY 2009

Fredericton market to date indicates the severity of the American and Global recession. The stats for January 2009, which I share with you today, gives us a birds-eye view of what the real estate market will do in 2009. Forwarned is forarmed. I believe we are heading into a very strong buyers market as early as April of this year. Supply and Demand. If you have lots of listings and few buyers it makes sense that buyers will experience some fantastic buys throughout the year. Let's look at the stats so far for January 09.

Total # of Listings year to date= 468 a drop of 16%

Total # of Sales year to date = 80 a drop of 33%

Total Sales Dollar Volume year to date= $ 11,937,050 a drop of 25%

With sales in a free fall of twice that of listings. It is a good bet that there will be a lot of good opportunities for the smart buyers to cash in on a profit bonanza. So far this year the 33% decrease in sales is 3 times what I predicted on December 31,2008. It is also very likely that other cities across Canada are experiencing this same trend and maybe even more so as one goes west. Vendors should take heed and make sure they do not over price their property and lose the best market in the Spring.

With this market edge that the buyers have, plus the $ 750.00 the Federal Government is promising " First Time Home Buyers " we should expect to see these young buyers as our majority of purchasers throughout 2009.

Check back with me at the end of February and we will see if this trend persists.

After 40 years in the real estate business I think I am in a position to share some of my beliefs as to what might happen in the Fredericton real estate market for 2009. As you can appreciate this is extremely subjective so I am even more excited to visit with you again on December 31,2009, just to see how we did. As I reflect on 2005. 2006, and 2007 it dumbfounds me to see the continued increase in gross yearly sales, year after year, when each year we waited for a free fall in both unit price and yearly dollar volume.

Well, good things must come to an end as we see the market slowing and a slight 7% decrease in dollar volume for 2008. The good news is that Fredericton is a real estate haven where real estate sales go up very gradual and down very gradual. Thus for the most part we maintain a prosperity market. Whereby, homes keep their value with little fluctuation and buyers can still buy at a fair market value.

So as we see the average volume for the past 4 years increasing at 9%/year, we can expect a gradual decrease at about 9%/yr. taking place over the next 4 years. Lets see how this will play out in 2009.

Here are my PREDICTIONS for Fredericton for 2009. Let me know if you agree, disagree or have a totally different Crystal Ball?

(1) Employment will remain strong in 2009 as Fredericton is in the process of building a new conference center,parking arcade, new ice area, new fire station, new school plus several private building projects.

(2) Interest rates will remain at an all time low in the 4 to 5 per cent range.

(3) Immigration will stay as strong as 2008 as more people are attracted to the city from the small villages in the province and abroad.

(4) Independent Mortgage Brokers will flourish as conventional banks tighten up their lending practices. Banks really need to rewrite their mortgage lending practices They are driving their existing clients to Mortgage Brokers.

(5) Appraisers will flourish as home values drop. More and more mortgagees will require an appraisal before agreeing with the real estate sale price. This will give them comfort for their exposed risk.

(6) Smaller and more Conservative priced homes will sell much faster than big ticket homes.

(7) Location, location, location will not be so much a factor to buying as most consumers will only be too happy to pay less for a home farther from city center, even with the expected high price of gas. This will be driven by the difficulty buyers will have in qualifying for a mortgage.

(8) Listing porfolios will increase and sales will decrease proportionally at about 10% as there will be less buyers on the market throughout 2009.

(9) Condo sales will remain strong as consumers will opt for condos over single family homes because the prices are lower and buyers will be able to qualify much easier. Especially, if gas prices becomes a factor in their buying psych.

(10) Cottage sales will suffer as consumers look to conserve their disposable income, at least for 2009.

(11) Commercial real estate will suffer as lending institutions will be reluctant to finance business buildings even more than in these past boom years.

(12) Credit will be tight and financing will be the Realtors best worst nightmare all year long.

(13) Builders will build as much as 40% less homes for 2009 as compared to 2008.

(14) New construction in apartment buildings will be almost totally dead for 2009 as the supply has all but caught up to demand.

(15) The number of real estate salespeople will start to dwindle as we enter 2009 as sales decrease dramatically, and even more as we begin the fourth quarter of 2009.

Since 2004, EXIT Realty Corp. International has been the proud Corporate Sponsor of ten home builds for Habitat for Humanity. One of the most recent is concluding in Fredericton, New Brunswick and EXIT Realty's Habitat for Humanity liaison, Christine Ireborg, visited the building site.

"EXIT Realty couldn't be a prouder sponsor of Habitat for Humanity," Ireborg said. "We wanted to identify with an organization that shares our values and philosophies; an organization based on giving back, transforming lives by providing new homes and a higher standard of living to individuals in the local communities."

During her visit, Ireborg interviewed Deanne Boudreau, the proud recipient of this home. "We'll be moving in with our four children. It was like winning the lottery," Boudreau exclaimed. "Our family is finally going to have a home. The first thing my daughter said was, 'We never have to move again, do we?' I told her, no this is permanent. We actually have a place for a dining room table! I just want to say that it's changed our lives - it's changed our kids' lives. I need to thank EXIT Realty - thank you for everything you've done."

The Boudreaus, like every Habitat recipient family, are rigorously screened and are required to spend many hours in "sweat equity" on their own home and the homes of others. Habitat's philosophy is "a hand up, not a hand out."

EXIT Realty associates from far and wide took part in the build. EXIT Realty Advantage Franchisee, Philip Duplisea, had this to say: "We're fortunate this year to get involved with the Habitat build. It has been really exciting - the house is going up very quickly. We've had lots of good help from the community and from the EXIT agents. It's been a great team-building experience for us here at EXIT; planning, getting things organized, seeing everyone chip in and come with their hammers and steel-toed sneakers. We've accomplished a lot."

The dedication of this home is scheduled for December 15th at 4:00 p.m.

About EXIT Realty: As a reward for assisting in the growth of the company, EXIT associates earn residual income equivalent to 10% of the gross commission of agents referred into the EXIT system anywhere in North America. When an associate retires, this 10% residual continues at the rate of 7%. These retirement residuals are further enhanced by continuing to sponsor agents into the EXIT system. The residuals continue after death to the associate's beneficiary at 5%. In addition, EXIT's top-producing trainers offer the industry's best hands-on, interactive real estate sales training at all levels, including regional, franchise, sales and administration. A portion of every transaction fee collected by EXIT International is applied to its charitable fund and to-date, $1.5 Million has been pledged to Habitat for Humanity in both Canada and the U.S. Please visit EXIT Realty Corp. International online for more information.