Fredericton, NB

Predicting real estate listings, unit sales, and dollar volume in any economy is difficult at best. However, it is possible to a degree, depending on how well you have studied your market area over a reasonable amount of years. Of course none of us wish to be wrong or appear to not know what we are talking about. Well, that just happens to be the Dark Hole we enter when we take the risk of predicting anything.

The important thing is that it doen't matter whether you are right or wrong but what you can share with others and what you can take away from the experience. So lets review the results of my predictions for 2009 and have a peek at my ----PREDICTIONS FOR 2010.

(1) Employment will remain strong in Fredericton throughout 2009?----Yes, I was right and I take from this that I can predict that employment will continue to remain strong throughout 2010. That's real good news if I am right again.

(2) Interest rates will remain strong at aroung the 4 to 5 per centage range. Yes, that has certainly held well. In fact it even stablized at closer to the 4% range. What we can take from that is it appears it will remain at the 4% range throughout 2010. Certainly at least until June 30,2010. The latter part of the year is a little more unpredictable due to global volitily.

(3) Immigration will remain as strong as it was in 2008. Yes, that has come to be. Again, because there is this great interest in the Province bringing in immigrants to New Brunswick it appears that this trend will continue thoughout 2010 just as strong and maybe even stronger than 2008 or 2009.

(4) Independent Mortgage Brokers will flourish as conventional banks tighten up their lending practices. No, that did not happen. In fact the banks must have read my predictions because they actually loosened up there lending practices to the joy of many promising buyers. Which I might add assisted greatly in affording the very successful market we enjoyed throughout 2009. Let's hope they continue this school of thought. Because of our strong economic economy I believe they will be happy to lend unabated throughout 2010.

(5) Appraisers will flourish as homes values drop. No, homes values not only did not drop but they went up a whopping 10% over 2008 prices. I expect this will change in 2010 and prices will be about the same or go down slightly to about the 5% range.

(6) Smaller and more conservative priced homes will sell much faster than big ticket homes. Yes, that did turn out to be true. However, I don't think they did because of a tighter economy but because they would have anyway, because there are predictably more buyers in the smaller price range historically. For 2010 both smaller priced homes and expensive homes will sell will throughout the year.

(7) Location, location, location will not be as much a factor to buying as most consumers will only be too happy to pay less for a home farther from the city center. No, this did not happen as predicted. Mainly, because gas prices went down quicker than expected and the market remained strong throughout the year and in fact there was no change in purchasing locations from 2008. People just continued to buy in the same geographical areas they purchased in 2008. This trend will continue throughout 2010.

(8) Listing portfolios will increase and sales will decrease proportionally at about 10% as there will be less buyers on the market throughout 2009. No, wrong! The opposite happened. Listings decreased at -6% by year end and sales increase at a plus +4% by year end. I really love to be wrong here. However, I should point out that units did decrease by only -1% by year end. My predictions here for 2010 is that listings will be down about 20% by year end and sales will be down about 20% also. The reason is that condo building is about at an end and the market will cool as government projects come to a screaming halt. Sorry, but this is what my crystal ball tells me.

(9) Condo sales will remain strong as consumers will opt for condos over single family homes. Yes, this did happen and this trend will continue throughout 2010 as there are a lot of condos which did not sell in 2009. The good news is that this over supply of condos will furnish sales for the first quarter of 2010. Thus, helping us to get a good early start in sales for 2010. Condo building will continue to lesson throughout 2010.

(10) Cottage sales will suffer as consumers look to conserve their disposable income. Yes, there were very little cottage sales throughout 2009. However, because the global economies appear to be strengthening, cottage sales should be stronger throughout 2010.

(11) Commercial real estate sales will suffer as lending institutions will be reluctant to finance commercial buildings. Yes, right! Commercial does remain difficult to finance. Howver, again with our strong economic expectations for 2010 I believe this will be a new shining light for 2010, in that commercial will be a way for banks to dispose of their great over supply of cash which they have little market demand throughout 2010.

(12) Credit will be tight. No, wrong! In fact, other than in the first quarter of 2009 credit was not tight at all. The loosening of credit in the last 3 quarters of 2009 really was a beacon of light to an otherwise recessionary 2009. Great going Banks for all your help in fording up our economy for 2009. I expect this to continue throughout 2010.

(13) Builders will build as much as 40% less homes for 2009 as compared to 2008. Yes, right! Builder were scared in 2009. In fact, they mostly would only build custom homes(meaning they only built pre-sold homes) for buyers. There were practically no spec. homes built compared to 2008. My prediction is that that will change throughout 2010 as our strong economic outlook will bolster the builders confidence to build more spec. homes throughout 2010. We will see!!!

(14) New construction in apartment buildings will be almost totally dead for 2009 as supply has all but caught up to demand. Yes, this turned out to be quite accurate as there was little demand for tenant accomodation. This trend is expected to continue throughout 2010.

(15) The number of real estate salespeople will start to dwindle as we enter 2009. Yes, this was true early in 2009. However, it came to a sceaming halt as the ecomomy strengthened and salespeople realized that it might not be such a bad market after all. In fact, we ended up with almost as many salespeople by December 31,2009 as we had at December 31,2008. I believe this will not change much throughout 2010. In fact, until we experience a down market the sales force for Fredericton will be constant.

Well Folks, there is my synopsis for 2009 and my predictions for 2010 all in one. Let's see how it plays out as we experience 2010. I take this opportunity to wish everyone every success in this new 2010. Good luck to all, Phil. Booker, Booker Realty, 717 Woodstock Rd., Fredericton, N. B. e3b-5n8.

December was quite typical of the past several Decembers. Listings dipped -4% and finished year over year at -6% which has been the norm this past few years.

December sales where also quite typical as to the Decembers in the past. Units sales are only down -1% and Dollar volume was also down a -1% for the month. However, it is enlightening to see dollar volume year over year is up +4% to $368,200,000 from $356,367,000 in 2008. To keep our production in perspective it is prudent to understand that our 2009 sales of $368,200,000 is exactly -10% reduction of our sales of $378,000,000 in 2007.

The good news is that even if we drpped to $300,000,000 per year in the Fredericton area we would still be experiencing a fantastic real estate market. Our industry has been good to us during this very trying global recession around the world.

Fortunately, 2010 seems to be shaping up as a relatively prosperous year with only about a -15% gross volume production by December 2010. This great news should boost the economy for the near future and help support other industries in mantaining the status que and not have the need of laying off their employees.

Interest rates are still at an all time low of 3.79% for 5 year term as I write this blog. Wow, are we in good times. These rates go way back to the 1950's. This is a lot better than the 1980's rates of 23% for a 5 year term.

So Buyers get out there and take advantage of an opportunity which will not last forever. Buy your dream home today with your favourite real estate salesperson. Hope to see you all in the new year.

Happy New Year everyone and I wish you a very successful and prosperous 2010. Best regards, Phil.

November definitely had some very attractive results from what we usually expect this time of year. The stablization of our economy is reflected in our real estate production. Listings have stopped the -17% freefall decline and only posted a -3% for the month of November. Hopefully, this trend will continue in December. Interesting that our decline in listings is still quite consistant year over year at -6% for November. I expect we will finish the year at an average loss of listing production in the -7% or -8% which is better than the -10% I predicted at the first of the Year.

November sales is another heartening story. If you look at November production for 2008 you will see that we are up a whopping 36% in volume sales. As attractive as this appears it is really only up .6% over 2007 production. However, November shows our market is in fact quite consistant year over year at a 4% increase from last Novembr. But just so we keep everything in perspective compared to November 2007 we posted -12% decline in November 2009. November 2009 shows a dollar volume of $353,606,918 year to date and November 2007 shows a dollar volume of $363,137,474.

Will folks, as much as we are in a very gradual decline from the boom year of 2007, we are still doing a fantastic business. With continued expectation that the economy is, in fact, improving globally I believe we can be quite assured of a secure future in the Fredericton real estate profession for the year 2010. The City reported that there are several huge projects being constructed as I write this and there are many more on the drafting tables all over the City for 2010. This has to lighten our step and help us feel most joyfull as we approach Christmas 2009.

So again buyers you still have lots of time to get your loved ones that very special dream home for Christmas. With interest rates staying quite stable at 3.83% and expected to do so for years to come,now is the best time ever to make the plunge. Don't think about it, like Nike says; Just do it! Just imagine, after all the Xmas presents are opened you take your family for an extra special drive up the street to their new home. I know I did it one year just for fun. Wow, what a thrill!!! God bless. Merry Christmas and a Happy, Happy New Year.

October posted a negative -18% in listing production for the month of October. This follows a-17% in listing production in the month of September. As bad as this looks it will help correct the overall reduction in sales per month. Thus, keeping the listings to sales ratio relatively at the same spread so we might be able to stay in a prosperity market ( where there as many homes for sale as there are buyers for those homes ) which will help ward off a buyers market. As much as this consistant lose of listings for September and October looks scary it really only amounts to a -7% listing reduction year over year. Because this trend will continue for the rest of the year we will see about a -10% year to year reduction of both listings and sales. This prediction is contrary to this weeks newspaper report which predicts a stronger 2010 market. Although, we will have a relatively good 2010 market I don't see anything strong enough happening in our economy to change my belief that our average dollar production will coninue to decline -10% for 2010. Well, actually this is not so bad as we are riding a boom market this last 10 years so even if we go down 10% in volume we will still be doing just fine.

Sales for October are pleasantly pleasing as they are up 14% over last October. Wow, who would have ever believed that? Our unit sales however are down -3% over last October. Again this is still good in a recessionary market, don't you think? Our year over year production to October is at +2% over last year. Every indication is that November and December should produce about the same. We will see!

To help keep things in perspective lets look at the dollar volume over the last three years. In 2007 October produced $28,829,665, 2008 produced 20,551,809 ( a 29% reduction ), 2009 October produced a 23,399,643 ( a 19% reduction over 2007 ). So you can see that our sales are gradually decreasing from the boom year of 2007. I believe that this trend will continue over the next 5 years where we will probably level out at $20,000,000 months for October.

Well, Folks, you can see we are pleasantly pleased with our year to year volume. The market is still very active and it looks like this trend will continue throughout the rest of the year. There are still some great buys out there so Buyers take note and buy a home for a Christmas present this year. You will be glad you did!!! Interest rates are still at an all time low @ 3.99% as I write this today. Talk to you next month.

WELL FOLKS, SEPTEMBER IS UPON US AND THE CRACKS IN OUR PRODUCTION FOR 2009 ARE STARTING TO SHOW. BOTH IN LISTING PRODUCTION AND SALE PRODUCTION. LISTINGS POSTED A -17% REDUCTION FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH WIPES OUT OUR BEAUTIFUL INCREASE 16% IN AUGUST. BUT AGAIN, WE STILL SHOW A VERY CONSISTANT -4% YEAR OVER YEAR REDUCTION FROM LAST YEAR. LOOK FOR A GOOD OCTOBER LISTING FRENZY AND I BELIEVE A CONSISTANT -9% YEAR OVER YEAR BY DECEMBER END.

OUR SALES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE A MAJOR NEGATIVE CORRECTION IN THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. POSSIBLY IN THE -10% TO -15% YEAR OVER YEAR. THIS SAID, SEPTEMBER SURELY ISN'T TOO BAD YET, POSTING A SMALL UNIT REDUCTION OF -9% FOR SEPTEMBER AND A POSITIVE DOLLAR VOLUME OF 1% YEAR OVER YEAR. ACTUALLY, OCTOBER IS NOT LOOKING THAT BAD EITHER AND IT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A 1% GAIN OVER LAST OCTOBER.

FOLKS ALTHOUGH YEAR TO DATE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A FANTASTICALLY CONSISTANT BANNER YEAR WE HAVE TO BE REALISTIC AND SEE THAT SUPPLY HAS ALL BUT PAST DEMAND AND THAT WE WILL BE QUICKLY SUBMERGED IN A BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL. THUS SALES WILL BE SLOWED SUBSTANTIALLY AS BUYERS WILL BE EXPECTING A MAJOR REDUCTION IN PURCHASE PRICE WHICH THE VENDORS WILL NOT BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT. IT HAD TO COME SOMETIME SO BE PREPARED TO WORK YOUR DEALS HARD THIS WINTER IN ORDER TO EXACT A SALE TO FRUITION.

AGENTS PREPARE YOURSELF AS THIS BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON YOU INDIVIDUALLY AND YOU WILL SEE MANY OF YOUR FELLOW REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATES LEAVING THE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. SORRY, BUT THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS WHEN ONE HAS TO WORK A LOT HARDER THAN YOU WOULD EVER IMAGINE TO EXACT THAT SALE. FOR-WARNED IS FOR-ARMED. I THINK YOU WILL SEE EXACTLY WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT BY YEAR END. OOHHH BUT I TOO HOPE I AM WRONG!!! DO CHECK MY BLOG AT YEAR END TO SEE AND PLAN TO PLAN, IN WRITING YOUR PRODUCTION GOALS FOR 2010. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO BE ASSURED OF YOUR TARGET OBJECTIVES. PREPARE YOURSELF. GOOD LUCK.