Jim Mulleady

Some good news for a change! We reached over 100 units sold for the first time in 2009 and the most units since last October. 109 units sold in October vs. 122 last October. It's a start!

The above are home unit sales by month for the past 24 months. Some bad news is that 2009 unit sales have been below 2008 unit sales for the past 12 months. One month, April, almost surpassed the previous year 76 vs. 77 units. The largest gap was between December 2008 vs. December 2007 where 72 units were sold in 2008 vs. 179 units were sold in 2007.

One thing becomes quite clear on this chart is the beginning of the real estate slowdown. If you throw out February, March and April of 2008, the rest of the year was relatively strong. Those three months are historically slow periods in Northwoods real estate. October 2008 was the final strong month for Northwoods real estate with sales of 122 homes. Since that time, we have had only one month with sales above 80 units (August 2009 saw 84 units sold).

What will the future hold? The uptick in volume is certainly welcome news for sellers and REALTORS. The $8000 stimulus has helped in other parts of Wisconsin and the nation but it has not made a significant impact on Northwoods real estate. I remain optimistic that 2010 will surpass 2009 and that Octobers number, while not outstanding, are a step in the right direction. The one common element that the Buyers are looking for are "deals".

Some good news for a change. The average sales price rose $10K since our last look at the average sales price in mid-September. While home prices most likely did not rise by this value, the mix of home values did rise. What the market has lacked all of 2009 are some medium priced homes. These are homes in the $400-$600K range. This used to be the strongest market segment. This past month there have been some sales in this segment and that has increased the average sales values.

Look for this trend to continue as there are some real attractive buys out there. I expect the average sales price for both Oneida and Vilas Counties to be in the upper $300K range by year end. Many sellers are offering significant discounts.

The key word that buyers are looking for right now is "deals". They are looking for homes below appraised, below assessed, bank-owned and fire sales. They are willing to sacrifice desired features and benefits for the right price.

At least it is not going down! The blue line is new listings while the red line represents sold units. A definitive trend has evolved this summer and to REALTORS and sellers this will come as no surprise. The volume was down in the summer of 2008 to around 120 units per month (homes and condos). This summer, it's hovered around 75 per month, roughly a 35% drop. The summers of 2005 through 2007 saw averages in the 200 units per month area. So, we are moving approximately 37% of the homes that we were in previous summers.

The news is not all negative. The 84 units that sold in August were the most sold since October of 2008. As far as the year-to-date numbers, the entire MLS is roughly 33% down from 2008 but that is better than the -45% we were down earlier in 2009. We are digging ourselves out but at a sluggish pace.

Interestingly, the market below $200,000 and above $1M are the most active (or lease inactive if you prefer). The stimulus program is helping those in the lower market. There are some great values out there for those who have been waiting on the sidelines.

There are market segments that are doing well. Then there are some that are not doing so well. Here is a chart of home sales the past 12 months compared with 2006.

Price Range Listed 2009 Sold 2009 Ratio Listed 2006 Sold 2006 Ratio

$0 - $200K 1169 442 37.8 1293 654 50.5

$200K-$500K 1076 225 20.9 1136 430 37.8

$500K - $1M 318 42 13.2 270 84 31.1

$1M and up 82 12 14.6 66 12 18%

This chart illustrates what market segments are hurting the most. The $500,000 to $1M home market is off by 50% from 2006. This represents the "lake home" market. The $200K to $500K is down from 430 units to 225 units. The luxury $1M market is off but unit sales remain the same.

Some good news here is that showing activity is way up. Perhaps we will see a robust fall? There has never been a better time to be a buyer!

Not going down! That's the good news! The average numbers did not decline from the past 30 days and we can all be thankful for that piece of good news (except if you are a buyer). Some other good news is that Vilas County Transfer Tax is down only 15% from 2008. That is better than it has been. Transfer tax is the .3% that all sellers pay to the state when they sell their property. For 2009, we are presently down 40% year to date. So, the market is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year.

Is it time to celebrate? Anyone who knows me realizes that anytime is a time to celebrate!! However if you are a buyer it may be time to pop the champagne. If you are a Seller, its still a bit of a drag out there.. The stimulus package has not improved the real estate market here in the Northwoods. We still have many summer visitors as there is no place on earth better to be than the Northwoods. The inventory is excellent. Interest rates are very good, too. There are incentives for those first time home buyers as well. Has there ever been a better time to buy?