Jim Mulleady

This chart shows the unit sales (homes) for Vilas and Oneida Counties for 2004-2009. The red line shows the number of homes sold and the blue line represents the number of homes listed. As displayed, December proved to not be significantly different from previous months in 2009. October was the highlight for the year in terms of unit sales and pricing.

What are we to expect in 2010? I don't think it would be much of a stretch for me to predict unit sales between 50 and 75 units for the first 4 months of 2010. We saw those sorts of numbers in 2008 and 2009. I remain optimistic that the warmer months will see sales in excess of 100 units during the summer. Why the optimism? This market has a tendency to parallel consumer confidence. Consumer confidence is much stronger than it was 12 months ago. We have good inventory, historically low interest rates, banks willing to lend money (unlike 12 months ago) and $6500-$8000 incentives. If someone was looking to move up, it really is an opportune time.

So we will see what 2010 brings. I wish you all the best for the New Year!

Sincerely,

Jim Mulleady - Broker

Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS

jim@28lakes.com www.28lakes.com

The above chart shows year end home averages for Vilas and Oneida Counties for the years 2003 and 2009. It does not show volume however. I will show volume in the next newsletter. Volume has definitely increased in the last quarter of 2009.

There is some bad news along with the good news of the increased volume levels. We have seen increased activity in the foreclosure market and that did affect the overall average figures in 2009. With volume off 60% on-water from 2007, a deep discount on a home will have a bigger affect on the average figures and I think that is what we are seeing at year end here in 2009. Waterfront homes are selling at around the 2005 price level. Off water homes did not see the spike in values that on-water did and the price has not changed drastically from 2008 levels.

What does all this mean for the future? It all starts with consumer confidence and the Buyers seem to be coming back at this time. They are bargain shopping! Interest rates are still quite attractive, still hovering around 5%. Then there is the $6500 stimulus for all Buyers. I think 2010 will be a stronger year for Northwoods real estate.

Best wishes for the new year!

Some good news for a change! We reached over 100 units sold for the first time in 2009 and the most units since last October. 109 units sold in October vs. 122 last October. It's a start!

The above are home unit sales by month for the past 24 months. Some bad news is that 2009 unit sales have been below 2008 unit sales for the past 12 months. One month, April, almost surpassed the previous year 76 vs. 77 units. The largest gap was between December 2008 vs. December 2007 where 72 units were sold in 2008 vs. 179 units were sold in 2007.

One thing becomes quite clear on this chart is the beginning of the real estate slowdown. If you throw out February, March and April of 2008, the rest of the year was relatively strong. Those three months are historically slow periods in Northwoods real estate. October 2008 was the final strong month for Northwoods real estate with sales of 122 homes. Since that time, we have had only one month with sales above 80 units (August 2009 saw 84 units sold).

What will the future hold? The uptick in volume is certainly welcome news for sellers and REALTORS. The $8000 stimulus has helped in other parts of Wisconsin and the nation but it has not made a significant impact on Northwoods real estate. I remain optimistic that 2010 will surpass 2009 and that Octobers number, while not outstanding, are a step in the right direction. The one common element that the Buyers are looking for are "deals".

Some good news for a change. The average sales price rose $10K since our last look at the average sales price in mid-September. While home prices most likely did not rise by this value, the mix of home values did rise. What the market has lacked all of 2009 are some medium priced homes. These are homes in the $400-$600K range. This used to be the strongest market segment. This past month there have been some sales in this segment and that has increased the average sales values.

Look for this trend to continue as there are some real attractive buys out there. I expect the average sales price for both Oneida and Vilas Counties to be in the upper $300K range by year end. Many sellers are offering significant discounts.

The key word that buyers are looking for right now is "deals". They are looking for homes below appraised, below assessed, bank-owned and fire sales. They are willing to sacrifice desired features and benefits for the right price.

At least it is not going down! The blue line is new listings while the red line represents sold units. A definitive trend has evolved this summer and to REALTORS and sellers this will come as no surprise. The volume was down in the summer of 2008 to around 120 units per month (homes and condos). This summer, it's hovered around 75 per month, roughly a 35% drop. The summers of 2005 through 2007 saw averages in the 200 units per month area. So, we are moving approximately 37% of the homes that we were in previous summers.

The news is not all negative. The 84 units that sold in August were the most sold since October of 2008. As far as the year-to-date numbers, the entire MLS is roughly 33% down from 2008 but that is better than the -45% we were down earlier in 2009. We are digging ourselves out but at a sluggish pace.

Interestingly, the market below $200,000 and above $1M are the most active (or lease inactive if you prefer). The stimulus program is helping those in the lower market. There are some great values out there for those who have been waiting on the sidelines.