Jim Mulleady

The story behind the story. The Wisconsin REALTORS Association just published their monthly numbers showing the number of sales and average sales price by county. It does not look very good for the Northwoods. Vilas County sales are off by 47%. Oneida County is not far behind -39%. The average home sale price is off from $175,000 to $113,300 or -35.3%. In Oneida County, the average home sales price actually rose from $112,000 to $120,000 or 7%.

On this chart, we track the average selling price of homes on and off water in Vilas and Oneida Counties. The real story is the lack of buyers. We do not have a shortage of money to lend. Banks are ready, willing and able to lend. We do not have a great number of foreclosures here in the Northwoods. That has helped keep values up. The big issue is what happens when the economy heads south. Discretionary spending takes a big hit. 80% of our waterfront homes here in the Northwoods are second homes. At this time, we have very few buyers looking for second homes.

While the numbers appear to be ominous, the reality of the situation is that values have not changed much. The volume of sales is way down and this is the root of our real estate problems here in the Northwoods.

Steady as it goes. When you look at the past 4 years of unit listings and sales in Vilas and Oneida Counties, we have never seen a period where unit sales remained so regular as the past 6 months. May had sales of 128 units, June 123, July 119, August 130, September 121, and October 122 units. The problem with this is we normally see a spike during these months. The last 4 Octobers saw 172 units in 2007, 224 in 2006, 223 in 2005 and 241 in 2004. So, our unit sales are off 29% from 2007. Unit sales are off 45% from 2006.

One would think that with the economy the way it is, that listing activity would be up. The Northwoods' is unique in that many of our Sellers can choose not to participate in a sluggish market. That is reflected in October listing activity with 243 listings versus 365 listings in 2007. Previous years saw 374 units in 2006, and 352 units in 2005.

The Northwoods market is not unique in that we are hurting. Most recreational markets like Maine, Minnesota, and Montana are in similar markets. We still live in a very desirable area that will recover, when the economy perks up.

Have you ever seen more negativity?

Negative Obama ads. Negative McCain ads. Negative stories on real estate. Negative stories on Wall Street. Negative stories on the 24 hour news cycle. Negative, negative negative.

Is it any wonder that things are going, well in the negative direction?

A bit more positive from everyone please. I know its hard, but try.

Heard this one: "I want to buy at the bottom."

I suppose I can be a smart guy and say that I have no town, county, neighborhood or lake named the bottom.

The real estate market is not unlike the stock market in that the rules of buy low and sell high still apply. Likewise, you should never try to time the market.

The answer I like to give is "if I call you and tell you that the bottom is here, will you believe me?" I won't know that the bottom has occured until the market has stopped dropping and has already begun to rise. No one else will know either. Since I work in a second home/recreational market, the buyers can often move quickly. Those that don't, lose.

What else happens after the market bottoms out? Demand increases, supply decreases, interest rates (generally) will increase with increased demand. Why not take advantage of a weak market?

Its a great time to be a buyer!

Whatever your politcal persuasion.

Please have your candidate refrain from drooling over my vote. Also, please stop promising the moon, stars, and the rest of the galaxy.

Senator Obama, I don't believe you and your party's allegations that Senator McCain is going to reduce Medicaid, Medicare or any other "aid".

Senator McCain, I don't believe you and your party's allegations that Senator Obama is going to turn this country into a socialist paradise.

I really will vote for the first candidate that acts as an adult. I happen to know that the government cannot fix all of this country's problems. I also know that there is plenty of blame to go around for our current situation. I saw Allen Greenspan actually apologize for not seeing this coming. That was refreshing. He said that he messed up in that he trusted the banks to watch out for their investors. Wouldn't it be nice if others, politicians and non-politicians if they actually took some responsibility for their actions (or inactions)?

The candidates should be saying things like, "America you messed up. You borrowed and consumed until you could not afford to pay any more. You are going to take your medicine. You cannot borrow or consume for X months. You will learn to live within your means." Instead, we get "I'll fix it or I'll fix it better than the other guy". Are we all that gullible to think that they will? Do we even want the government to fix it?

What is my point? Please copy some of the promises that are being made now and show them to your candidate 2-4-6 years from now. Its too late for this election but in the next election, please demand that your candidates actually act as adults.

As for me, I plan to vote for the candidate that promises less.