Jerry LaRose, ABR, GRI, e-PRO, CLHMS Orlando, Windermere FL. Real Estate

You might not hear much about them on TV or in the papers, but there are some economic signs popping up right now that are -- at the VERY least -- encouraging for housing and real estate.

Take the gold standard of all forward indicators for the U.S. economy -- the Conference Board's "Index of Leading Indicators," which is based on a broad survey of industry data and predicts economic activity three to six months down the road.

The latest Conference Board index registered its first increase in six months. Now I know that all we hear about these days is recession: it's either already here or it's about to happen. But the index suggests that there should be positive growth underway in the second half of the year, if not sooner. Look at the stock market, it's starting it's upward trend again.

The National Bureau of Economic Research which found that industrial production in the U.S. showed an unexpected uptick in March.

Here are some other noteworthy developments this past week:

• Applications for mortgages to buy houses were up again, it was the second straight week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's national survey. Applications for FHA loans to buy houses jumped by three and a half percent -- and conventional purchase applications rose 2.1 percent.
• The federal government reported that house prices nationwide stopped their slide between January and February -- and actually increased by six tenths of one percent.
• Interest rates remain well under 6 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers, with 30-year fixed rate loans last week averaging 5.74 percent and 15-year loans at 5.27 percent. The Federal Reserve is likely to knock another quarter percent off short term rates next week.
• Freddie Mac announced plans to pump up to 15 billion dollars into the "jumbo conforming" loan market -- those are for high cost areas that really need some stimulus right now, like California.

Now, positive-sounding economic developments are not ballgame-changers for real estate. We've still got lots of housing inventory to sell before calling an end to the down cycle -- and total sales dipped 2 percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors.

We're still dealing with a lack of confidence on the part of some consumers who are afraid that maybe prices still have a ways to fall.

But here's the point: It's undeniable that there are some glimmers out there that the underlying economy and financing marketplace, which after all are what support real estate activity, finally may be headed in a positive direction.

Orlando's housing marketing experienced a month-over-month increase in the number of home sales, an increase in the number of pending sales contracts, and a decrease in the amount of inventory - all baby steps toward a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

The monthly statistical reports released by the Orlando Regional Realtor® Association revealed some additional interesting tidbits for the month of March:

• the sales of homes costing upwards of $1 million more than doubled in March compared to last month;
• the sales of duplexes, town homes, and villas have increased in each of the last three months; and
• the majority of condos sold have fallen into lower and lower price categories for each of the last three months.

The median sales price of a single-family home in the Orlando area decreased by 1.35 percent ($3,000) from $223,000 in February 2008 to $220,000 in March 2008. The median sales price for March 2008 is 8.33 percent below that of March 2007 ($240,000).

The decrease in the median home price to $220,000 means that the area's affordability index increased in March to 102.35 percent. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.) Buyers who earn the reported median income of $51,506 can qualify to purchase one of 10,980 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service (MLS) for $225,170 or less.

The first time homebuyer affordability index held steady in March, at 72.78.

The number of sales in the Orlando area declined by 39.29 percent in March 2008 compared to March of last year (1,080 to 1,779), but the number of sales that took place in March 2008 increased by 13.56 percent compared to the number of sales that occurred in February 2008 (951).

There are currently 2,398 homes in the MLS with pending sales contracts (an indicator of future sales activity), up from 1,731 in January and 2,175 in February. The number of homes newly under contract increased by 142 in March, and the increase from January to February was 298.

The area's average interest rate was 5.94 percent in March 2008, up from 5.87 percent in February but down from 2007's high of 6.60 percent in August.

Homes of all types spent an average of 130 days on the market before being sold in March 2008; the average home sold for 93.53 percent of its original asking price. In March 2007 those numbers were 90 and 95.87 percent, respectively.

The majority of single-family homes (223) that changed hands in March 2008 were sold for between $200,000 and $250,000. Another 129 homes sold in March for between $250,000 and $300,000. Two hundred eighty-four homes sold for less than $200,000 in March, and 260 sold for more than $300,000. On the far ends of the scale, 31 homes were sold for $1 million or more (double the number sold in February) while only 10 homes sold for less than $50,000.

About the author:

Jerry LaRose is an Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Expert, who can assist you with the purchase and/or sale of real estate in Orlando, Windermere, Winter Garden Florida or any place in the country. Jerry has created a team of professionals throughout Orlando and the country to ensure that you enjoy a smooth transition to your new area. Please visit http://www.jerrysellsorlando.com/ for your real estate needs. Please give me a call if you have questions about the Orlando and Central Florida real estate market.

Jerry LaRose, P.A., ABR, GRI, e-PRO, CLHMS, REALTOR® 407-580-7011

(Copyright © 2008 By Jerry LaRose, P.A. All Rights Reserved.)

Homeowners reluctant to sell because prices have fallen should do the math and realize that the market downturn could work in their favor.

"People are finding houses at prices they thought they'd never see again,"
I would like to point out that to potential sellers that if the house a buyer covets used to be $500,000 but its price has fallen 20 percent to $400,000, it is a deal, even if the buyer's own home also has lost 20 percent of its value.

In general, the toughest will be for people who bought within the last three years, at the height of the market. But even for these homeowners, selling now may make sense as long as they can at least break even, or their trade up property is down more than their current property. (ie., that $500,000 home 3 years ago that may be now worth $400,000, considering it's down 20%, when your home 3 years ago was worth $450,000 and is now worth $390,000 down only 13%. That's nearly an even trade considering you would be getting a bigger home in potential a better neighborhood.

Almost everyone forgoes something, and probably several things, that he or she wanted when buying a house. For instance, the home may be in the right school district but on a busy street. Or it may in a great neighborhood, but it's a 2 story, not a 1 story. These are "unchangeables."

It's a good time to sell if a seller can get rid of the most negative unchangeables in his current home and replace them with better unchangeables in a new home. Once the market really turns around, the growth will be bigger in the better house.

About the author:

Jerry LaRose is an Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Expert, who can assist you with the purchase and/or sale of real estate in Orlando, Windermere, Winter Garden Florida or any place in the country. Jerry has created a team of professionals throughout Orlando and the country to ensure that you enjoy a smooth transition to your new area. Please visit http://www.jerrysellsorlando.com/ for your real estate needs. Please give me a call if you have questions about the Orlando and Central Florida real estate market.

Jerry LaRose, P.A., ABR, GRI, e-PRO, CLHMS, REALTOR® 407-580-7011

(Copyright © 2008 By Jerry LaRose, P.A. All Rights Reserved.)

Basic Information on the Stimulus Payments

You've heard about it. Now find out how to get yours.

What is it? It's an economic stimulus payment that more than 130 million households will receive starting in May. It's not taxable, and it won't reduce your 2007 or 2008 refund or increase the amount you owe when you file your 2008 return.

Are you eligible? The vast majority of people who file a 2007 income tax return qualify, and many who don't regularly file a tax return may qualify as well. You're eligible if you have a valid Social Security Number (SSN), can't be claimed as a dependent on a tax return and have either an income tax liability or "qualifying income" of at least $3,000. Qualifying income includes any combination of earned income and certain benefits from Social Security, Veterans Affairs or Railroad Retirement. Additional information is below, and a full legal description is available in Revenue Procedure 2008-21.

Both people listed on a "married filing jointly" return must have valid SSNs to qualify for the payment - if only one has a valid SSN, neither can receive the payment.

Can you use an ITIN instead of an SSN? Taxpayers with an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) instead of an SSN are not eligible to receive a stimulus payment. Both people listed on a "married filing jointly" return must have valid SSNs to qualify for the payment - if only one has a valid SSN, neither can receive the payment.

Not eligible at the current time? If your circumstances change and you become eligible after you file your 2007 federal tax return, you can always file an amended return using Form 1040X. File the form after April 14, 2008, and allow 8-12 weeks of processing time before making any inquiries about your payment. See a sample with instructions.

If you're not eligible this year but you become eligible next year, you can claim the economic stimulus payment next year on your 2008 tax return.

How do you get it? Just file a a federal tax return for 2007, even if you normally don't have to because your income usually doesn't meet the filing threshhold. You can't get it if you don't file.

How much will you get? The actual amount depends on the information contained on your tax return. Eligible individuals will receive between $300 and $600. Those who are eligible and file a joint return will receive a total of between $600 and $1,200. Those with children will get an additional $300 for each qualifying child. To qualify, a child must be eligible under the Child Tax Credit and have a valid Social Security number. We have various examples for you check out.

The payments phase out at certain income levels, so those with higher incomes may receive a reduced payment or even no payment.

Can you estimate your payment? The IRS has created an online calculator that will allow you to answer a few questions and get a quick estimate of your payment amount.

How will you receive the payment? Be sure to choose direct deposit when you file your tax return, even if you aren't due a regular tax refund on your tax return. That way, the stimulus payment will go right to your bank account. Otherwise, we'll mail you a check.

When will you get your payment? Starting May 2, payments will be electronically transmitted to direct deposit accounts. Paper checks will be mailed starting May 16. The payments are based on the last two-digits of the mail filer's Social Security number. The IRS has issued a schedule for payments as direct deposits or paper checks.

Economic stimulus payments will be issued according to the last two-digits of the main filer's Social Security number. People who use direct deposit also will be among the first to receive the payments starting May 2. Paper checks will be put in the mail starting May 16.

PAPER CHECK

People who file a return after April 15 will receive their economic stimulus payment, but probably about two weeks later than the schedule shows. A return must be filed by October 15 in order to receive a stimulus payment this year. See the online calculator for an estimate of the amount you will receive.

For more information go to:

http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=179211,00.html