Aaron Abed

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Sep. 4th

Thursday's bond market has opened on positive territory following another round of early stock losses. The stock markets are posting sizable losses during early trading with the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which with yesterday's late gains should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

Yesterday afternoon's release of the Fed Beige Book report indicated that the economy continues to slow and that inflationary pressure still remain elevated. Neither of those points really come as a surprise, but the comments about the economy slowing and words used such as soft and weak, helped bonds prices to move higher yesterday afternoon.

The 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers were posted this morning, showing a surprising jump in worker output. The 4.3% rise was well above forecasts and is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because higher levels of productivity allow the economy to grow without inflation fears.

The Labor Department reported that 444,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable increase from the previous week, especially when analysts were expecting to see a decline in claims.

The Labor Department will also post August's Employment report tomorrow morning. This report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings during August. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a smaller than expected rise in new payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. If we are that fortunate, I expect to see mortgage rates drop considerably tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 5.7% and 75,000 jobs lost in the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Sep. 2nd

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting this shortened week with strong gains as the Dow is up 183 points and the Nasdaq has gained 27 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.

The Institute for Supply Management posted their manufacturing index late this morning, showing a reading of 49.9. This was very close to last month's reading and slightly higher than forecasts, but has not had much of an influence on this morning's trading or mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of July's Factory Orders data. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 0.4% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the Federal Reserve release of its Beige Book report. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings. It is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting. If the 2:00 PM ET release reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed's next interest rate move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a change in mortgage rates.

Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates Friday due to the importance of the Employment report. I am holding the short-term lock recommendations for the time being, but this does not mean that I think rates will necessarily move higher. It means that I feel the risk versus the potential reward of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily towards the risky side. Accordingly, locking seems to be the prudent position at this time if closing in the immediate future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Aug. 28th

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's GDP reading fueled a stock rally. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 143 points and the Nasdaq up 19 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but we will still see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

Today's update to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading revealed a higher level of growth than what was expected. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 1.9% pace, but today's revision showed a 3.3% annual rate. Analysts were expecting to see a 2.7% rate, meaning that the economy grew at a rate that was faster than what analysts had forecasted. That is bad news for bonds because it raises inflation concerns that drive bond prices lower.

The Labor Department said that 425,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was the third straight week that new claims have dropped, but analysts were expecting to see this number.

There are two pieces of economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is July's Personal Income and Outlays and the second is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The income and spending data measures consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show a decline of 0.2% in income and a 0.2% increase in spending. Weaker than expected numbers would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

August's revision to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is the second. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show an upward revision from August's preliminary reading of 61.7. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is that the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow ahead of the Labor Day holiday. It will remain closed Monday and reopen Tuesday morning. The stock markets will be closed Monday also. This may create a little more volatility during afternoon hours as traders prepare for the long weekend. However, I don't think it will affect mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.