Adam Bogle, CRS, Southern Oregon... The Most Recognized Realtor in the Universe

Now that the Ashland fire is apparently under control, I can return to the boring statistics of Ashland Oregon real estate. I've come to the conclusion that statistics are not exciting for anyone to read. I post them because I personally find them fascinating, but I don't consider myself to be a boring person. I'm not really sure what that says about me.

So perhaps I should start with a joke. This actually comes from the homepage of the American Mensa Societywhich I was looking at to see what you had to do to be part of Mensa. I have no idea what Mensa meetings are about. It seems kinda strange to me, but I got curious yesterday. But when I found that one of their incentives to get you to join was people will understand your jokes. Now that got me interested.

Also, for the record, I'm a sucker for "walks into a bar" jokes. I named my dog after one.

But first, the stats. Ashland specific stats were requested by my friend, and a local lender for BofA, Linda Fitzgerald.

Currently there are 234 Residential listing in the city of Ashland. 33 Pending sales, and 22 places closed escrow in the last month. That actually is pretty good news as far as I am concerned. An absorbtion rate (length of time at current sales volume for inventory to run out) of just over 10 months is really pretty good in the current market. The breakdown goes like this:

• 13 Listings under $250k with 6 pending sales and 4 closed transactions last month...absorbtion rate of 3 months.
• 55 Listings between $250k-350k with 14 pending sales and 9 closed transactions last month...absorbtion rate of 6 months.
• 80 Listings between $350k-500k with 8 pending sales and 5 closed transactions last month...absorbtion rate of 16 months.
• 48 Listings between $500k-750k with 4 pending sales and 2 closed transactions last month...absorbtion rate of 24 months.
• 22 Listings between $750k-1 million with zero pending sales and 1 closed transactions last month...absorbtion rate of 22 months.
• 16 Listings over $1 million with 1 pending sale and 1 closed transaction last month....absorbtion rate of 16 months.

You'll note that below $350k is really strong as far as sales go...and that between $500k and $750k is the hardest competition for sales. By that I mean the fewest sales compared to the number of places listed.

Now:

The CEO of Geico walks into a bar with his spokesperson the lizard from all of those commercial. Bartender comes over, and after getting an autograph asks them what they would like to drink. The CEO says I would like a Bombay Blue Sapphire martini, and can you get a half pint of Guinness for my friend Tiny here.

Bartender says sure, but why do you call him Tiny?

The CEO say well, obviously because he's my newt.

(Let the groans commence)

The biggest difference is the temperature...and the low temp in Bend is makes it unbearably cold to me at night in all but the summer months. The averages are only about 5 degrees difference, but look at the charts for the extremes. The exteme low on record for Ashland is -5 degrees, where in Bend the extreme low is about -25 degrees.

ASHLAND, OREGON (350304)

Period of Record Monthly Climate Summary

Period of Record : 7/ 1/1892 to 4/30/2009

BEND, OREGON (350694)

Period of Record Monthly Climate Summary

Period of Record : 4/ 1/1901 to 4/30/2009

Next time on compare Oregon Weather, we will look at the difference in cloud cover between Ashland and Portland.

In the last two days, the latest foreclosures to be listed for sale are in Central Point.

*One located on Ester Way and looks like a good bargain. A little over 25oo square feet on 1.78 acres. The house was built in 2001 and currently appears to be owned by Wells Fargo. The price on this house is $299,900. This is a rural piece on a well, but also on RVS sewer.

*The other new bank owned property in Central Point is on Bush street. It is under 750 square feet, and looks a little rough. But it is priced just below $100k at $99,900.

I have not been out to see these properties yet because they are so new. If you or someone you know want to take a look at them, I would love to go out and be surprised, or horrified with you. When looking at Foreclosed properties, you never know what you are going to find. Every once in awhile they are in good shape, but more often than not, there is a lot of work that needs to be done.

*Information provided by SOMLS and is deemed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

A quick search of the Southern Oregon MLS shows that today there are 133 bank owned (REO) forclosed houses currently for sale.

These properties are all kinds...in all price ranges.

On the bottom end is a $55,000 house in Evans Creek on an acre that has fire damage. But more realistically, there is a house in West Medford on Grape street that is listed at $65,000.

Then on the other end of the spectrum, there is a 388 acre Rogue river front property with 3 houses, plus fitness center....etc....that would make an awesome retreat. It is listed for sale at $4,850,000. Or perhaps a 26 acre horse ranch is Ashland is your idea of a great foreclosure deal, that one listed at $1,200,000.

Here is a breakdown by Area

• East Medford 32
• West Medford 17
• Central Point 16
• Talent 1
• Ashland 6
• Jacksonville 1
• Eagle Point 9
• Shady Cove 12
• White City 15
• Gold Hill 10
• Other areas 14

Price range for the active forclosed houses are:

• Under $100k 7
• $100-140k 31
• $140-200k 39
• $200-250k 25
• $250-350k 17
• $350-500k 9
• Over $500k 5

So whether you are looking for a $4 million dollar foreclosure deal, or a $65,000 foreclosure deal, I can help. There are some special requirements when dealing with negotiations with bank owned properties, but I would be happy to assist you with them.

If you would like to be put on a list and have new foreclosure properties (in whatever price range) sent to your email as they become available, contact me and I will set that up for you.

As always, you can conduct your own searches for Ashland Oregon Real Estate at my website www.Agentinakilt.com.

I've been looking at the added sales volume we have had in the Rogue Valley lately, and hearing stories (and experiencing) multiple offer situations. It has been feeling like a seller's market in many ways. However, it all seems to be in the lower price range. So I just ran a few numbers.

For the record...the numbers are generate from sales reported to Southern Oregon MLS, and are in town properties for sale in Medford, Talent, Phoenix, Ashland and Jacksonville, with reported sales in the last 3 months.

A quick refresher...I am going to be talking about absorbsion rate. That is the rate of current sales divided into current inventory...or how many months it would take to sell all of the available homes if no other homes were listed.

So the numbers go something like this:

• Under $200k, there are currently 332 properties available, and an average of 59 sales a month. So there are 5.5 months of supply.
• Between $200k and $300k there are currently 326 properties available and an average of 32 sales a month. So there are 10 months of supply.
• Between $300k and $500k there are currently 294 properties available and an average of 20 sales a month. So there are 15 months of supply.
• Between $500k and $800k there are currently 124 properties available and an average of 3 sales a month. So there are 41 months of supply.
• Over $800k there are currently 52 properties available and an average of 1 sale a month. So there are 52 months of supply.

A six month supply is considered a balance market....so there is a balanced market at under $200k....but in all other price ranges, it is still a buyer's market.

How does one account for this? I think the first time home buyers and investors are thinking now is the time to buy. The $8000 tax credit appears to be working. What we are missing is the buyers that are moving up...or the buyers that are moving in from other locations.