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Alison Moss - Cincinnati Real Estate

Numbers Do Not Lie Cincinnati Real Estate Market Is Recovering

Numbers Do Not Lie Cincinnati Real Estate Market Is Recovering

he numbers tell the distinct tale that the Cincinnati real estate market is beginning a recovery. The latest information released about the geographic region that includes Hamilton, Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties shows a distinct improvement in the 2009 home sales activity over 2008.

The two key metrics shown in the below graph are the volume of homes that are for sale and the number of sold homes. The numbers show that there are 14% fewer homes for sale June 2009 compared to June 2008. In addition there are 5.5% fewer home sales this year compared to last. What is even more important is the ratio of for sale to sold. In 2008 there was an 8.1:1 ratio and that ratio fell in 2009 to 7.4:1!

That ratio is a key indicator in the strength of the housing market. As that ratio drops lower and lower the demand for houses will begin to equalize with the supply. The ratio will continue to drop due in a large part to the increased number of pending transactions. When this happens, like in all markets, prices begin to rise, and the time it takes to move merchandise drops. In real estate this is the transition period from a buyers market to a sellers market.

Sales versus forsale graphic

ACTIVITY

JUNE 08

JUNE 09

CHANGE

For Sale

14337

12325

-14%

Sold

1771

1674

-5.5%

Ratio

8.1:1

7.4:1

-0.7:1

Pending

1668

1839

+10.3%

Cincinnati Real Estate: National Foreclosures hit 1.9 million in first half of 2009

Cincinnati Real Estate: National Foreclosures hit 1.9 million in first half of 2009

It is a fact that there were 1,905,723 foreclosure filings – default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions in the first six months of 2009. That represents an increase of 9% from the previous six months (July – December 2008) and 15% increase over the first 6 months (January – June) of 2008 according to reporting service RSI media.

Sadly a portion of the foreclosures appearing in recent months are due to the overall economic slowdown and subsequent job loss being experienced in almost every industry. Small local companies cut back staff as the economy slowed and those staff, unable to find new positions, found themselves unable to pay their previously affordable mortgage. he 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates were Nevada, Arizona, Florida, California , Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois, Idaho and Colorado. While the Cincinnati real estate market has seen price and sales volume declines, this is top 10 list I am glad Ohio is not on.

Outside Magazine Ranks Cincinnati in Top 10 Town 2009 outside.com

Outside Magazine Ranks Cincinnati in Top 10 Town 2009

outside.com

Outside Magazine recently ranked Cincinnati as a top town to live in. The magazine cites a number of factors including a number of economic, entertainment, and sports related features that helps put Cincinnati at #9 in the poll. Jay Stowe says, Cincinnati boasts “cool architecture, genuinely awesome independent restaurants, and neighborhoods full of affordable, eclectic houses—and one of the country’s biggest Oktoberfests, where people willingly don lederhosen and do the Chicken Dance totally unironically.”

Should I Buy Now? Reasons to Buy Cincinati Real Estate This Year!

Should I Buy Now? Reasons to Buy Cincinati Real Estate This Year!

Recently I have been getting a number of questions from my prospective clients about buying a home in this economic climate. They have legitimate questions and I wanted to share my general thoughts and industry research with all of my readers:

Will Home Prices Get Better If I Wait?

Over the last year the average home price in the Greater Cincinnati area has fallen by about 13%. As an agent I am seeing more buying activity, and that active buying is shrinking the number of homes in our inventory. With less supply and stable demand home prices will go up. Although it will be a slow recovery a Baylor University economics study showed that 8 or 10 economists polled believe that home prices will rise in the next 5 years.

Will Mortgage Rate Be Lower If I Wait?

Rates are at 50 year lows. Interest rates are fluctuating between 5% and 6% which is a substantially lower than the 15% interest rates of the 1980’s. I wrote a previous post about the buying power that small changes in interest rates can have on a 30 conventional loan.

Will There be More Houses to Chose From If I Wait?

There are currently 14,182 homes for sale in the MLS of Greater Cincinnati. One year ago that number was 16,680. Two years ago it was 17,880. The difference was that we were in a sellers market and there were eager buyers, easy mortgages, and fast sales. Activity was high because people were moving up. With the economy in its current state people are staying in their homes, hence the lower inventory. There will be different houses if you wait, maybe not more.

Cincinnati Real Estate Market Stronger than Ohio Average

Ohio may through Jan 09 graphicThe first five months of 2009 have not been kind to the housing market here in Ohio. The chart above shows the impacts on both the number of units sold and the average price per unit sold compared to the same months 2008. While the economic slowdown has impacted the volume of sales there is one substantial factor that is influencing the average sale price - foreclosures and short sales.

The average price includes all properties sold, regardless if it is an owner sale or a bank sale. To emphasize the impact that a foreclosure sale could have, I recently helped a buyer purchase a foreclosure for 30% of its appraised value. Short sales are also impacting the average sale price since homeowners and banks are selling properties for less than they were purchased for.

The good news in the chart is that the Cincinnati real estate market is better than the state average. The Cincinnati market continues to have the second highest home sale price, and the third highest volume of sales in the state. The local market continues to gain momentum through the late spring and summer months as the economy begins its long recovery.