Mortgage markets were unchanged last week, despite improving on four of five days. Economic data was worse-than-expected almost across the board, but neither FHA nor conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota budged.
Instead, markets grappled with the just-released Fed Minutes which weighed heavily on investors and on Wall Street.With the release of the minutes, it's increasingly clear that the Federal Reserve will end its support for bond markets on schedule in June, and that a Fed Fund Rate hike is possible within the next 12 months.
Not surprisingly, the date of the Fed Minutes release - Wednesday - was the singular "down day" for mortgage markets last week.
After falling for 4 straight weeks, Plymouth mortgage rates appear to have troughed. This week they could rise, and there's no shortage of data on which for bonds for trade.
There's other forces on markets, too. First, there are 3 bond auctions - a 2-year, a 5-year, and a 7-year. Weak demand for any of the three will lead mortgage rates higher.
And, second, this is a holiday week. Memorial Day is next Monday and, with the 3-day weekend ahead, expect large numbers of Wall Streeters to skip out on Friday (and likely part of Thursday, too). As the week concludes, therefore, bond volume will thin, amplifying mortgage rate movement - up or down.
If you're shopping for a mortgage, it's a good time to look at locking in. As the week progresses, mortgage rates should become less predictable and more volatile.
website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/
youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans
The housing market recovery stalled last month. At least temporarily.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales slipped 1 percent in April from the month prior, falling to 5.05 million units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. The reading is exactly in-line with report's 6-month average which also reads 5.05 million units.
The data may appear "average", but there's another angle to consider.
In April, as compared to March, the supply of existing homes for sales spiked. At the current pace of home sales, it would now take 9.2 months to exhaust today's complete home inventory. This is almost one full month worse than March. It's the worst home supply reading of the year.
There are also more homes "on the market" today than at any time since September 2010.
Other noteworthy statistics in the April Existing Home Sales report include:
This "discount", it should be noted, is a major reason why distressed properties accounted for 37 percent of the home resales in April. Home buyers are finding bargains when they're willing to consider homes in various stages of foreclosure and short sale.
Overall, the April Existing Home Sales report represents opportunity for home buyers in and around Plymouth. Home sales are stagnant, supplies are rising and there's no shortage of properties from which to choose. Furthermore, mortgage rates remain low.
If you're considering a home purchase this fall, home supply may not be as ample, and financing conditions may not be as favorable, post-Labor Day. Talk to your real estate agent about what's possible today. You may want to move up your time frame.
website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/
youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans
The Federal Reserve released its April 2011 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes Wednesday. In the hours since, mortgage markets have worsened; rates in Minnesota are higher by 1/8 percent this morning, at least.
The "Fed Minutes" is published 8 times annually, three week after each scheduled FOMC meeting. The minutes are the Federal Reserve's official recap of the conversations and debates that shaped the prior FOMC session.
Another way to consider the Fed Minutes is as the companion piece to the more well-known FOMC press release. The press release is issued on the day of adjournment, and is brief, narrow, and high-level. The statement makes broad comments on the economy and outlines new monetary policy.
By contrast, the Fed Minutes is delayed, lengthy, and rife with details. The minutes highlights arguments and discussion points between Fed members, and digs deep into underlying economic issues.
The FOMC press release is measured in paragraphs. The Fed Minutes is measured in pages.
Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:
In addition, at its meeting, the Federal Reserve discussed an exit strategy for its market support. The details are undecided, but the debate shows that the Fed is anticipated a change in policy sometime soon.
Wall Street estimates that a gradual economic tightening will begin within 12 months.
Mortgage rates have been fading since mid-April. The Fed Minutes may be the catalyst of a reversal. The Federal Reserve expects growth in the U.S. economy and growth tends to boost stock markets at the expense of bonds.
As bond markets fall, mortgage rates in Maple Grove rise.
Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.63% - the lowest of the year.
website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/
youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans
Single-family housing starts dropped by 21,000 units in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.
The Housing Starts report measures the number of homes on which new construction "broke ground". It's tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce which releases new data monthly.
Single-family housing starts fell 5 percent as compared to March 2011, and 30 percent as compared to April one year ago.
The figures were worse than what Wall Street expected. For just the second time in 2 years, monthly single-family housing starts dropped below 400,000 units. In addition, single-family Building Permits fell in April as well, shedding 2 percent from March.
A building permit is a local government's approval to start home construction and when permits are down, new construction follows. This is because 93 percent of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.
Fewer permits, as a consequence, means fewer new homes. Therefore, if you're looking at new construction in or around Minneapolis , April's numbers may spark a sense of urgency.
Home prices are a function of home supply and demand and, based on the Housing Starts data, supplies appear headed for a fall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, demand should be rising - foot traffic is higher, mortgage rates are lower, and job growth is picking up.
This should lead new home prices higher in time. For now, though, home affordability remains high.
It's a good time to look at new home construction.
website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/
youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans
Home builder confidence can't shake its range, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The group's monthly Housing Market Index put May's builder confidence reading at a level of 16.
The Housing Market Index is scored on a scale of 1-100. A reading above 50 suggests favorable conditions for the new home housing market, as reported by home builders. A reading below 50 suggests unfavorable conditions.
May marks the sixth time in 7 months that the HMI posted a 16, the longest such plateau in the index's history.
The HMI has not posted higher than 50 since April 2006.
As an index, the HMI is a composite of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. The surveys are meant to capture the current and projected single-family home sales volume, in addition to buyer foot traffic levels.
Versus April, there was little change:
Broken down, the Housing Market Index for May shows that home builders are experiencing a boost in sales and foot traffic today, but expect that boost to fade between today and November. For home buyers in Minneapolis , this can present an opportunity.
With home builder confidence stagnating, and with a worsening sales expectation for the next 6 months, builders may be more willing to negotiate with you on home prices and/or the costs of upgrades. Builders may also be more willing to make concessions in your sales contract that would otherwise be unavailable to you.
Your real estate agent can help you to identify the negotiable items of your offer.
In addition, today's home buyers can exploit the recent strength of the mortgage market. Surging mortgage bond demand since April has pushed mortgage rates down to their lowest levels of the year. If you can find a home you love, therefore, it can be financed on the (relative) cheap, too.
Conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota fell through 5 consecutive weeks before rising last week.
website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/
youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans
Because of my 30+ yrs in real estate & mortgages. We understand that each customer has specific needs, we endeavor to provide our clients with enhanced services and follow-though.
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