April Stephens Broker/Realtor - Johnston & Wake County

Responding to the News & Observer:

Stacey Anfindsen Shares More Accurate Depiction of Market and Five Reasons Not to Panic Over Local Home Prices

In response to the main headline in the 10/27/08 N&O, I am presenting facts to contradict

the headline, which is yet another attempt to scare local readers by using data from selected national

sources. The writer states five reasons; crashing home prices, investor speculation, complex

investments, job losses and repeat delinquencies. I will respond to each of these to provide some local

perspective.

1) When analyzing our market, I look at data from the counties of Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston.

Within this market, the average closed price of all housing is up 8% and the average closed price of

resale housing is up 6%. House price appreciation, which compares the two most recent sales prices of

the same house , is an area where the Triangle outperforms the national market. Our current rate of house

price appreciation in the Triangle is just over 4%. This rate beats the state (+3.6%) and national rates

(-4.5%).

2) The Wake County Revenue Department reported +/- 21,000 closed sales within the past 13

months. Roughly 5% of these sales were purchased by buyers from out of town, a huge difference

compared to the 20% rate nationally.

3) It is almost impossible to track what percentage of local purchases were made via the subprime loan

mechanism. Per the FHFA mortgage metrics survey for the second quarter of 2008, 17% of all

outstanding mortgages in the U.S. are rated as subprime. Therefore it would be hard to argue that a

majority of house purchases were made via this mechanism.

4) Job losses are real both nationally and locally. The Raleigh/Cary/Durham MSA did not have a

workforce increase comparing 8/08 with 8/07 for the first time since the 8/01 versus 8/00 period.

5) The mortgage metrics survey reveals some additional information regarding the national mortgage

market. They surveyed over 30 million outstanding loans in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac system and

found that 98.6% of these loans were rated as current. They also state that foreclosure proceedings

were initiated on 432 homeowners per day during the second quarter, a big difference from the 2,700

per day figure stated in the lead paragraph. There are currently +/- 14,000 listings within the four county

area in TMLS. Roughly 3% of these listings are classified as foreclosure, bank or corporate owned. I have

been tracking the residential market within the Triangle for over 20 years. The foreclosure market has

always accounted for a very small percentage of activity.

Our current market can be summed up with my version of the good, the bad and the ugly;

The Good

• Third quarter closings were the 6th highest in history
• Current supply of 8 months is lower than national current supply of 11 months
• Average house price appreciation is superior to state and national rates
• Average re-sale sales price +6%, average overall sales price +8%, average list price +2%
• Houses priced correctly have sold in an average of 55 days

The Bad

• Overall inventory grew 7%, making 2 consecutive months of less than 10% growth
• Withdrawn listings increased 2% compared to 9/07

The Ugly

• 29 consecutive months of inventory growth, 20 consecutive months of lower pending sales
• 63% of all price points have an oversupply of housing product
• 9/08 expired listings were 227% higher than 9/07 expired listings

A survey of Wake County house purchases where the house was purchased and then re-sold within

the past 12 months reveals a median percent per gain of 0%. I think that is pretty impressive

compared to what is happening in the national market.

As we have seen during 2008, our local market is not immune from happenings in the national

market. Our biggest challenges during the fourth quarter of this year and into next year are to grow

the workforce and cut down on the number of price points with an oversupply of housing.

Information provided by Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors and Birch Appraisal Group of Cary.

A few years ago I had my first experience with the Johnston County Parade of Homes. If you know me, you know (almost immediately) that I love to talk, so having prospective homebuyers come to my open house by the dozens was a dream come true! I love leading tours, answering questions, and showing off our product!

Although the media continues to shout "recession" and the economy is at the top of everyones mind it was a pleasant surprise to have a rush of "lookers" during the parade of homes this past weekend. No sooner than I unlocked the door on Saturday and tied on the last balloon, the guests began to arrive. Myself and another agent spent the weekend showing our parade home to approximately 90 people..I will say again 90 people, in 2 days!!

From speaking with many different people in many different situations it seemed apparent that their are still people looking for their dream home, some are looking for deals, a few are considering building, and many just want to see what the local builders have come up with this year. Overall it was a very productive weekend that left me with an incredibly optimistic view of the upcoming market.

I am patiently awaiting the weekend to come, but unlike most, I am looking forward to working! I have stocked up on more refreshments and cannot wait to start the parade party again.

Johnston County
In-person Early Voting Schedules
for the November 4, 2008 - Presidential Election

Office Site
Dates, Times & Location
Thursday & Friday Oct. 16-17...................8:00 am to 5:00 pm
Saturday Oct. 18........................9:00 am to 1:00 pm
Monday - Friday Oct. 20 - 24.................8:00 am to 5:00 pm
Saturday Oct. 25........................9:00 am to 1:00 pm
Monday - Friday Oct. 27 - 31.................8:00 am to 5:00 pm
Saturday Nov. 1.........................9:00 am to 1:00 pm
Smithfield Town Hall
Council Chambers
350 E. Market Street
Smithfield, NC



2 Additional Sites
Dates, Times &Locations
Authorized by G.S. 227.2(g))
Tuesday - Friday Oct. 21 - 24.................12:00 noon to 7:00 pm
Saturday Oct. 25..........................9:00 am to 1:00 pm
Tuesday - Friday Oct. 28 - 31.................12:00 noon to 7:00 pm
Saturday Nov. 1..........................9:00 am to 1:00 pm

JCC Cleveland Campus
9046 Cleveland Road
Clayton, NC

The Church at Clayton Crossing
11407 US Highway 70 West
Clayton, NC

Columbus Day Weekend Sale
Fri, Oct 10 - Mon, Oct 13
Don't miss the annual Columbus Day Weekend Sale at Chelsea Premium Outlet Centers. You'll enjoy extra discounts on top of our everyday savings of 25%-65%.

50 Plus Shopper Perks
Join us on Tuesdays for the 50 Plus Shopper Perks.
If you are at least 50 years of age you can take advantage of an added 10% savings on Tuesdays by simply presenting a photo identification with your proof of age to the cashier at participating stores. View a list of participating stores.

Stores for the 50 Plus Shopper Perks continue to grow, so please stop by the Information Center to view our most current list.

Aeropostale
Sept 22 - Oct 12
Purchase Plain White T's highly anticipated release, 'Big Bad World' in this store and receive a free limited edition Plain White T's T-shirt.

Bass
Sept 25 - Oct 1
Entire Store on Sale
Take An Additional 30% Off Lowest Price
*limited exclusions apply

Book Cellar
Oct 10 - 13
Assorted audio books, buy two get third one free
Assorted hardback fiction, $9.99 each or three for $25.00
Webkinz two for $24.00 - regularly $14.99 each

Brooks Brothers Factory Store
Oct 10 - 13
25% off our entire collection of Men's and Women's Outerwear
Save an additional 10% on your entire purchase when you use either your Brooks Brothers Platinum MasterCard® or The Brooks card.®*
BrooksStretch® Suits 2 for $599
Men's Sweaters 2 for $119 orig. $69.50 - $89.50
Women's Fall Collection up to 25% off select styles
*Redeemable for merchandise only. May not be combined with any other offer. Discount may not be applied toward taxes, shipping and handling, monogramming and engraving, alterations or personalization. Not valid on previous purchases or for the purchase of the Gift Card. If you return some or all merchandise, the dollar value of this promotion is not refunded or credited back to your account. Void in states where prohibited by law. No cash value except where prohibited, then the cash value is 1/100 cent.

Clarks Bostonian
Oct 6 - 13
Entire Store: Buy 1 pair, save 25% on the 2nd pair
*Discount taken on lower priced pair. Cannot be combined with any other offer or coupon.

Dressbarn
Now - Oct 31
Fall Preview Sale
Every Sweater- Buy One and Get One 50% off*
*Lower priced item 50% off

Ecko Unltd
Now - Oct 1
Tees 2 for $30

Oct 10 - 19
2 for $30 Tees
New Fall Markdowns

Eddie Bauer Outlet
Sept 17 - Oct 14
The Big Fall Sale
Save 20% to 70%
Exceptional savings on fall essentials

Geoffrey Beene
Sept 25 - Oct 1
Storewide Blowout
25% - 75% Off Lowest Price
*limited exclusions apply

Harry & David
Now - Nov 2
Moose Munch Confection and Snack Mixes - Buy 2 get 1 Free

Oct 11
Royal Riviera Pears arrive - Free Samples: 1pm - 5pm

Izod
Sept 25 - Oct 1
Entire Store On Sale
50% Off Lowest Price
*limited exclusions apply

Jockey
Sept 25 - Oct 13
$20 Deals
- Women's Tanks: 5 for $20
- Women's Comfie® bottoms: 4 for $20
- Women's 3 pack Elance®: 2 for $20
- Men's Boxers: 3 for $20
- Men's Short Sleeve Performance Tees or Mesh Shorts: 2 for $20
- Men's 6 pack briefs: 1 for $20
- Men's Supima T-shirts: 2 for $20
- Men's Retro Collection - 50% off
- Men's GO Collection - Buy 1, Get 1 50% off*
*50% off applies to item of equal or lesser value. Exclude GO Thermals and GO socks.

Jones New York
Oct 10 - 13
Denim Jeans - $ 29.99 select styles
Sport Knit Tops - $ 12.99 select styles
40% Off Suits, Dresses - select styles
Footwear, handbags - all regular price 40% off

Kasper
Oct 10 - 13
Suits $59.99 select styles
Key Item Knits $9.99-$19.99 select styles

KB Toy Outlet
Oct 6 - 13
Get $10 in Bonus Bucks with a purchase of $30 or more
Spend $30 or more (excluding sales taxes & gift cards), receive one (1) $10 Bonus Bucks Card redeemable 10/14/08 - 10/28/08 on any purchase of $30 or more (excluding gift cards and sales taxes). Not valid on previous purchases. Limit one Bonus Bucks Card per household, per day.

Kitchen Collection
Sept 30 - Nov 3
Gadget of the Month: Free miniature silicon turner with the purchase of a Hamilton Beach or Kitchen Collection stainless steel cookie scoop for only $6.97
Feature of the Month: 20% Off Stainless Steel Bakeware by Hamilton Beach and Kitchen Collection
Best Deals:
Save $10.00 on a Hamilton Beach Big Mouth Food Processor
Only $17.97 for West Bend 6 Quart Slow Cooker (003-42953)
Chef'n Palm Peelers or Palm Brushes 2 for $10.00
Save $20.00 on Tilia Food Saver Advanced Design-Model V2460
Only $49.97 for Henckels Stylus 8 Piece Stainless Steel Knife Block Set

Lane Bryant Outlet
Sept 16 - Oct 8
Venezia Long Sleeved Tees - $14.99
Venezia 5-Pocket denim $29.99
Cacique Panties (selected styles) 5 for $22
Take an Additional 50% off Entire Stock of Clearance

Oct 9 - 13
Columbus Day Event
Venezia 5 pocket denim $24.99.
Venezia long sleeve tees $12.99.
Career Shirts $19.99.
Venezia Activewear 40% off.

Le Creuset
Oct 1 - 30
Save 35% Off All Cactus Cast Iron Cookware, Stoneware, Stockpots and Silicone Tools*
Save 35% Off All White Cast Iron Cookware*
*These offers cannot be combined with any other discount, promotion or sale price.

Liz Claiborne
Sept 25 - Oct 2
Buy 3, and get the 4th Free*
40% off** regular priced apparel
*4th item must be of lesser value than the three items purchased. See in store for details.
**Select styles. See in store for details.

Sept 30 - Oct 9
Fall Sale: Savings 25% - 70%* off
Select styles. See in store for details.

Oct 2 - 9
Buy One, Get One 50% off*
*Select styles. Second item must be of equal or lesser value. See in store for details.

Oct 2 - 31
Pre-Holiday Secret Savings
Save 15% - 25% off a single regular priced item
See in store for details.

Nautica
Oct 1 - 30
- LS Woven Sportshirts - great assortment of plaids, checks, stripes $24.99-$29.99
- SS Polo Knit Shirts - great assortment of polo collar solids, plaids, colorblocks $19.99
- Sweaters - great styles to choose from - 25% off entire assortment
- Fleece separates - great selection of fashion styles in tops and bottoms - 25% off entire assortment
- Jackets - save 25% off selected styles
- Twill pants in both flat front and pleated models - $24.99
- Denim jeans - great selection in assorted fits and washes - $29.99 - $39.99
- Boxer shorts - great assortment of fashion styles 3 for $24.99
- Twill caps - great styles all for $9.99

Oct 1 - 30
All Fall Clearance 50% - 60% off

Sept 30 - Oct 29
All Fall Clearance - 50% - 60% off
Outerwear 40% off

Perfumania
Sept 23 - Oct 13
Color-Fall Savings
Extra 20% Off All Hugo Men's and Women's Fragrances.
Extra 25% Off Vicky Tiel Women's. Extra 20% Off Cerruti Men's & Women's Fragrances.
Extra 20% Off Diesel Fuel For Life Women's Gift Set (6.8 oz. Shower Gel Gift With Purchase)
Armani Attitude Men's (Gift with Purchase)
Extra 20% Off On Selected Items.

Petite Sophisticate Outlet
Oct 9 - 13
Columbus Day Event
40% off entire store.
Take an Additional 50% off Clearance.

Polo Ralph Lauren Children
Now - Oct 1
Fall Wardrobing Event
Enjoy $25 off every $150 you spend
This offer cannot be combined with any other offer and is valid for one transaction only. This offer is not valid for the purchase of gift cards, cannot be applied to previously purchased merchandise and must be presented upon purchase. This offer has no cash value and is valid for in-store purchases only: Phone, mail and e-mail orders will not be accepted. Items vary by location.

Polo Ralph Lauren Factory Store
Now - Oct 1
Fall Wardrobing Event
Enjoy $50 off every $250 you spend
This offer cannot be combined with any other offer and is valid for one transaction only. This offer is not valid for the purchase of gift cards, cannot be applied to previously purchased merchandise and must be presented upon purchase. This offer has no cash value and is valid for in-store purchases only: Phone, mail and e-mail orders will not be accepted. Items vary by location.

Reebok
Sept 25 - Oct 1
40% Off All Women's Warm Ups (excluding velour)
30% Off All Men's Cotton Based Playdry Tees
25% Off Men's NFL Outlet Jerseys
All Reebok, NFL, NBA, and NHL Headwear plus Reebok & NFL Cold Weather Accessories Buy 1 Get 1 50% Off

Oct 2 - 8
Women's Basic Shorts $12.95
30% Off Men's Basketball Apparel
30% Off Men's NFL Fleece

Rockport
Sept 25 - Oct 1
All Rockport Shoecare 2 for $10

Oct 2 - 8
40% Off All Rockport Bags

Rue21
Now - Oct 2
Girls and guys denim buy one pair and get the second pair 50% off.
See store for details.

Rug Decor
Oct 10 - 13
10% off in-stock rugs
(Cannot be combined with other discounts)

Samsonite Company Store
Oct 9 - 19
Samsonite 2 Piece Ballistic Luggage Sets - Special Sale Price $99.99
Samsonite 3 Piece Ballistic Luggage Sets - Special Sale Price $179.99
New West Space Bags - Receive 50% Off 4 Pack Space Bags With The Purchase Of Any Piece of Luggage
Select Discontinued Luggage 45%-85% Off
Select Ladies Business Cases - Special Sale Price $79.99 (while supplies last)

Stride Rite Keds Sperry
Sept 24 - Oct 14
Kid's Footwear Clearance
$12.95 -or- 2 for $20
select styles

Time Factory Watch Outlet
Oct 10 - 13
Timex Hi-Ti and Icontrol watches all priced at $39.99, regular up to $175.
Special Timex Aqcua and Carriage coded product on sale for $9.99.
Other famous Brands starting at 40% off.

Van Heusen
Sept 25 - Oct 1
Entire Store On Sale
30% - 70% Off Lowest Price
*limited exclusions apply

Wilsons Leather Outlet
Oct 10 - 13
20% off entire purchase, excludes clearance
Extra 50% off clearance

Yankee Candle
Sept 19 - Oct 2
3 for $10 - Small HW Jars (3.7oz) - $5 each
2 for $12 - Simply Home 12oz Jars - $12 each
Sale $25 - Any Large Jar/Large Shade/Large Tray Combo
Sale $15 - All Reeds
50% Off Giftsets
While supplies last, see store for details.

Taken from Carolina Outlets website.

We are quickly approaching October which means the yearly Parade of Homes for Wake & Johnston Counties is just around the corner. There are currently 3 homes from Broadmoor & Broadmoor West entered in the Johnston County Parade of Homes for 2008. This is a great time to get out and see what local builders have been working on for the past several months. Many parade homes will feature the latest trends in decorating, cabinetry, technology, and overall design. The parade dates are listed below. I will have Parade Books featuring all of the Parade Homes in Johnston County for anyone intersted.

Stay tuned for more information!

Wake County Parade of Homes

October 4th & 5th

October 11th & 12th

October 18th & 19th

Johnston County Parade of Homes

October 18th & 19th

October 25th & 26th

November 1st & 2nd