New Realtor stats shows the credit crunch spreading pain nationwide. My trusty spreadsheet tells me only 11 of 152 towns tracked in the fourth quarter by the National Association of Realtors had price gains for sales on single-family residences vs. the third quarter. That's when shaky global financial markets began to make mortgages harder to get. Overall, U.S. prices fell 6.4% between the third and fourth quarters.
The fourth quarter's limited U.S. winners compares to 53% quarterly price gains in 151 U.S. markets in the third quarter. And while the fourth quarter can be weak for pricing, in 2006's fourth quarter saw 17% of the towns tracked by NAR had price gains.
Here's a look at my analysis of NAR's quarterly metropolitan area data: percent of U.S. towns with gains; overall change in U.S. pricing ...
Quarter | US towns up | US qtr. price chg. |
4th ‘07 | 7% | -6.4% |
3rd ‘07 | 53% | -1.4% |
2nd ‘07 | 89% | 5.1% |
1st ‘07 | 45% | -2.9% |
4th ‘06 | 17% | -2.8% |
By the way, NAR chose to look at year-over-year data, which is fine. NAR tried to put on an glass-half-full view: "In the fourth quarter, 73 out of 150 metropolitan statistical areas show increases in median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, including 11 areas with double-digit annual gains and another 12 metros showing increases of 6 percent or more; 77 had price declines including 16 with double-digit drops." In addition, NAR quotes its current president, Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists ...
"Higher limits for FHA loans, which go into effect March 14, will be a big help to first-time buyers in high-cost markets. Higher limits for conventional loans purchased by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will take a bit longer - when they become available, high-income, creditworthy borrowers in high-cost areas will have access to affordable and safer financing, and that will help unleash pent-up demand. ... With the market in a state of flux, it's especially important for consumers to stay abreast of widely varying and changing market conditions. We encourage them to have a traditional long-term view, which means taking the time to thoughtfully research the market" To read more, CLICK HERE
Bureau of Labor Statistics' year-end data shows that the cost of living in a home, or housing inflation, rose at a slower pace both regionally and nationally last year. Housing inflation, which accounts for 46% of the Consumer Price Index math, includes home-operating costs from rent to energy to furnishings to insurance, but not purchase costs.
In DC/MD/VAl, housing's CPI rose at an average 4.8% last year vs. 4.4% in ‘06. With the increase, DC/MD/VA had the 7th highest housing inflation for 2007 among 27 regions tracked. (We were 9th worst in ‘06) Nationally, the U.S. city average was 3.1% housing inflation for ‘07 vs. 3.8% in ‘06.
Here's how the towns tracked by BLS fared ...
Region | 2007 | 2006 |
Honolulu | 7.2% | 8.4% |
Miami | 5.9% | 7.4% |
Tampa-St. Pete | 5.9% | 5.2% |
Los Angeles | 5.1% | 6.0% |
Phoenix | 4.8% | 3.9% |
Seattle | 4.8% | 4.8% |
DC/MD/VA | 4.8% | 4.4% |
Chicago | 4.2% | 1.7% |
Atlanta | 4.0% | 2.7% |
New York-NJ | 3.5% | 5.1% |
San Francisco | 3.3% | 3.0% |
Portland, OR | 3.2% | 1.9% |
U.S. city average | 3.1% | 3.8% |
Anchorage | 2.7% | 4.0% |
Philadelphia | 2.7% | 5.8% |
Pittsburgh | 2.7% | 4.5% |
San Diego | 2.6% | 4.1% |
Kansas City | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Cincinnati | 2.1% | 4.1% |
Minneapolis | 1.9% | -0.2% |
Cleveland | 1.6% | 1.3% |
Boston | 1.5% | 3.5% |
Milwaukee | 1.5% | 2.0% |
Denver | 0.9% | 2.3% |
Dallas | 0.8% | 2.4% |
St. Louis | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Detroit | 0.7% | 3.8% |
Houston | 0.5% | 3.7% |
Residential Homes trended DOWN by 26.9% (January Year-to-Year)
Original Price: $287,960
Sales Price: $242,567 (84.2% of Original Price)
Average Days on Market: 129
Number of Homes Sold: 89
Currently Active Listings:
Average List Price: $245,153
Average Days on Market: 129
Total Listed: 1812
It is important to know the path the market is currently on. Sellers need to lead the market not follow. Continually lagging behind the trend will lead to higher days on the market and lower "walkaway" sales prices.
This article also found at http://www.ask2agents.blogspot.com/
Residential Homes trended DOWN by 17.3% (January Year-to-Year)
Original Price: $464,594
Sales Price: $414,708 (89.3% of Original Price)
Average Days on Market: 101
Number of Homes Sold: 31
Currently Active Listings:
Average List Price: $486,568
Average Days on Market: 178
Total Listed: 358
It is important to know the path the market is currently on. Sellers need to lead the market not follow. Continually lagging behind the trend will lead to higher days on the market and lower "walkaway" sales prices.
This article also found at http://www.ask2agents.blogspot.com/
Residential Homes trended DOWN by 18.9% (January Year-to-Year)
Original Price: $511,932
Sales Price: $449,896 (88.0% of Original Price)
Average Days on Market: 168
Number of Homes Sold: 42
Currently Active Listings:
Average List Price: $604,866
Average Days on Market: 261
Total Listed: 302
It is important to know the path the market is currently on. Sellers need to lead the market not follow. Continually lagging behind the trend will lead to higher days on the market and lower "walkaway" sales prices.
This article also found at http://www.ask2agents.blogspot.com/
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