Beverly Bayer

Temecula - Murrieta, CA * Real Estate Market Conditions: February 2011

Sales for Temecula and Murrieta - between January 14 to February 14 for the years 2010 and 2011. Except for the Standard Sales the median prices per square foot are up in both Cities. Data shows homes in Temecula sell for more, Standard sales pull the highest prices.

Temcula (standard sale prices per square foot) 2010 @ $163 vs. 2011@ $138

Temecula (REO) 2010 @ $113.50 vs. 2011 @ $115

Temecula (short sale) 2010 @ $123 vs. 2011 @ $124

Murrieta (standard sales) 2010 @ $111 vs. 2011 @ $112

Murrieta (REO) 2010 @ $104 vs. 2011 @ $106

Murrieta (short sale) 2010 @ $94 vs. 2011 @ $95

Based on the same 1-month period (as above) for 2010 and 2011 - there was a decline in the number of homes sold:

Temecula 139 in 2010 119 in 2011

Murrieta 170 in 2010 141 in 2011

Year over year shows prices up, however comparing the most recent 3-month period vs. the prior 3-month period.

Temecula saw home prices on average go down: $45 per day

Murrieta saw home prices on average go down: $87 per day

Average difference in prices for the difference in square footages

Temecula for the current 3-month time period $70 per square foot

Temecula for the prior 3-month time period $78 per square foot

Murrieta for the current 3-month time period $59 per square foot

Murrieta for the prior 3-month time period $72 per square foot

Based on pending sales in 1-month vs. the current number of homes listed for sale - the months of inventory is:

Temecula 3.7 months vs. 2 months on 2/25/2010

Murrieta 4.6 months vs. 2.3 months on 2/25/2010

Appraiser Adjustment Matrix

Area Murrieta Date 1/5/2011

Data used is median sales prices in the area - for either current to 3-months or 4-6 months; by house square footage ranges. In the gray boxes in the difference between the 2 median prices per the adjacent ranges. Data indicates the current 3-month period found homes sold on average $62 difference per square foot (in the prior 3-month period the difference was: $70 per square foot). Between the median prices for the most recent 3-month period vs. the prior 3-month period median home prices went down on average $58 per day.

Data below finds most of the current listings in Murrieta are short sales, while most of the sales are REOs (for the current 1-month period and the same time frame from 1-year ago). There has been a slight drop in the number of homes sold (188 in the current period vs. 194 in the same time period from 1-year ago). The standard sales continue to pull the highest prices per square foot, while the REOs sell the fastest. Note the average days on the market is growing, with the short sales taking the longest time to sell.

Not only are fewer homes selling and prices declining - I am also seeing the months of inventory grow (based on the current number of listings vs. 1-month of pending sales) - which is most recently at 5+ months, while just back to April 29, 2010 the months of inventory was at 2 and 1/2 months.

Often in prior years the number of homes listed for sale drops between Thanksgiving and the early part of the next year (I believe because occupants don't want potential home buyers coming into their homes during holidays). And as the new year comes along - new and older home sellers put their properties back on the market -- growing the inventory. Unless, buyers come back soon - 2011 will not get off to a good start. Prices might continue to drop as the inventory grows. And if interest rates go up, lenders remain cautious, and heaven forbid they try to take away the mortgage interest IRS deduction -- things could be very bad.

Appraiser Adjustment Matrix

Area Temecula Date 1/5/2011

Data used is median sales prices in the area - for either current to 3-months or 4-6 months; by house square footage ranges. In the gray boxes in the difference between the 2 median prices per the adjacent ranges. Data indicates the difference in prices per square foot on average in the most recent 3-month period was $77 ($81 per square foot in the prior 3-month period). Prices have also declined at an average rate of $17.50 per day. Data below finds about the same number of homes in Temecula sold in the most recent 30-day period vs. the same time frame from 1-year ago; but the largest percentage recently was standard sales, while most of the current listings are short sales - which take the longest to sell.

Appraiser Adjustment Matrix

Area Hemet - San Jacinto Date 12/15/2010

Data used is median sales prices in the area - for either current to 3-months or 4-6 months; by house square footage ranges. In the gray boxes in the difference between the 2 median prices per the adjacent ranges. The difference in median sale prices per square foot was $46 in the most recent 3-month period ($48 in the prior 3-month period). Prices for the current 3-months vs. the prior 3-months finds prices on average going down $5 per day (or about: $150 per month). The number of single family homes sold in the past month was 200 this year vs. 251 last year. Most of the homes sold this year and last were REOs, The standard sales pull the highest prices, the REOs sell the fastest and the short sales are most of the current listings and take the longest to sell. Listings vs. 1-month of pending sales found we now have a standing inventory of 4.5 months - and this has been increasing over time.

Appraiser Adjustment Matrix

Area Perris - Nuevo Date 12/14/2010

Data indicates the difference in price per square foot was $44 for the 3 most current months (and $42 per square foot for the 3-month prior period) - this is a market driven amount - or an adjustment an appraiser should be using. Homes are losing value at the current rate of $15 per day (between the most recent 3-months vs. the prior 3-month period).

Next we see there are 507 single family homes currently listed for sale (with 111 pending sales and 110 closed sales in 1-month): most of the listings are short sales, most of the pending and closed sales are the REOs. Year-over-year there has been a significant drop in the number of homes sold (110 in 2010 vs. 188 in the same 1-month period in 2009), but prices have move up (year-over-year) but not 3-months vs. 3-months. The standard sales pull the highest prices per square foot and the short sales take the longest time to sell.

Based on 1-month of pending sales and current number of MLS single family home listings - there is now 4.6 months of standing inventory. About 1-year ago there was about 2.4 months of inventory. About 1-year ago (1/13/2009) prices per a Matrix at that time indicated home prices were moving up at a daily rate of: $67 - now they are going down at a daily rate of $15.